One wrinkle in the story is the question of whether Trump will back out of NATO. There has been a persistent narrative that Russian aggression is merely a reaction to NATO expansion, and more concretely, due to fears of US military presence:
Why does Russia oppose NATO enlargement? For the simple reason that Russia does not accept the U.S. military on its 2,300 km border with Ukraine in the Black Sea region. Russia does not appreciate the U.S. placement of Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania after the U.S. unilaterally abandoned the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.
So, should the US withdraw from NATO (provided Trump is actually able to do so, which I understand there’s controversy about), then according to that narrative, the chief reason for the Kremlin’s ‘special military operation’ will be resolved, and Russia should withdraw. Meaning we might see this actually put to the test.
I don’t expect it’ll do much good for Ukraine, though.