This makes a lot of sense to me:
EDIT: I just wish there was something a little firmer to grasp onto regarding this particular confounder.
EDIT2: Maybe Nikki Haley’s support among Republican voters in the primaries to date (as opposed to cross-primary-voting Democratic voters) is at least an oblique view on that potential “something firmer”.
Let the shakedown begin.
Apparently he must be the nominee before they start paying his legal bills…
A sneaky-good reason for Haley to remain in the primaries – even if she’s relegating to showing up at random coffee shops and filming herself chatting with locals and uploading all that to social media. Who needs cash?
This didn’t actually happen.
Many people, big strong people with tears in their eyes, have come up to me, telling me, “Trump hates Nikki Haley becaue so long as she’s in the race he’s got to spend money he doesn’t have.”
Seriously?! Umm… cry me a river…
Must of imagined her campaigning in California and not Michigan during the closing days.
I’m proud of you for being able to admit this.
Guess I should have used the [sarcasm] tag.
Maybe you meant it as sarcasm, but you posted the truth.
Clinton gave a speech at a rally in Detroit, MI on November 4, 2016.
Clinton gave a speech at a rally in Allendale, MI (outside Grand Rapids) on November 7, 2016.
The Clinton campaign held no public events in California in November, 2016.
If you remember it differently you must have imagined it.
Cite: 2016 Presidential Candidate General Election Events Tracker (maintained by FairVote) - Google Sheets
USA Today is calling the SC primary result a “5-alarm fire” for Trump:
The important point here is that the media is beginning to, you know, actually report negative things about this slob.
This past Sunday 2/25, CNN broadcast a round table to discuss the exact issues brought up in the USA Today piece you linked. Seated at the center of the table were host Anderson Cooper and, to his immediate left, former Trump White House official Alyssa Farah Griffin. Griffin is quoted at length in the USA Today piece.
It’s a six-minute video that the house may take or leave as they see fit. It covers the same ground as the USA Today link except also adding some comments from left-leaning commentators Audie Cornish, Van Jones, and Bakari Sellers. Sellers and Cornish disagreed whether or not Haley’s 2024 showing vs Trump can be compared to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 showing vs Hilary Clinton – Cornish making the point that Sanders had diehard supporters in his corner while Haley has a coalition of a few supporters alongside a large cohort of never-Trumpists.
In the end, Sellers makes the point: “People are rejecting Donald Trump … How do I know that? Haley got 38-point-something [percent of the vote]”.
I’ll say this: the longer this thread goes on, the more of a genius the OP will look like if this somehow happens.
Ha, nice! So a newspaper piece gets substantially magnified by a TV piece. Keep it coming!!!
Well, people are rejecting trump as their idea of the ideal R party cadidate.
But those people are still voting in the R party primary which signals their overall political intent. (Yes, yes, SC has open primaries and some of that 40% is D’s gleefully throwing strategic shade on trump).
Of the folks who voted in teh R primary (and are not just hardcore D’s messing with the R primary), they have a very high likelihood of voting for the R nominee solely on the strength of that all-important (R) after their name. You know, trump.
That’s OK – so long as it is a “very high likelihood” versus “a certainty”.
In a state like South Carolina, Trump can lose a significant level of support from his 2020 number and still win the state. That’s not true in swing states – really, he needs to gain support over 2020 numbers in some swing states, not merely tread water.
EDIT: This is regarding Trump’s chances in the general election, not in the primaries.
From Aeschines’s USA Today cite:
" A Fox News Voter Analysis survey of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters also found that 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) would not support Trump in the general election if he were the GOP nominee."
Unless these people are lying, then no, it isn’t a given that every Republican primary voter will vote for Trump in Novemeber if he is the candidate. She got ~40%. 60 percent of her 40 percent of the vote is 24 percent, so about 1/4 of the voters in the SC GOP primary are saying that they won’t vote for Trump. That, I don’t think, can just be hand waved away.
I’ll be interested to see how these same factors break down for Michigan today.
Weirdly, only one swing state is having their primary on Super Tuesday (North Carolina). We’ll have to wait past Super Tuesday to get hints about how Republican non-Trump supporters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia may vote in the general.
Except the CNN piece ran on Sunday and the USA Today piece ran on Monday. Who’s amplifying who?