Use of intensifiers like “5-alarm fire,” in political commentary, is extremely, far and away, overdone
In November, the GOP nominee will lose millions who voted in Republican primaries and caucuses.
In November, the Democratic nominee will lose millions who voted in Democratic primaries and caucuses.
This has always happened since primary elections became the normal way to select the nominee.
So long as Trump is within hailing distance of a November popular vote victory, as horse race polls suggest he is, millions of Republicans disapproving of him is no more than an interesting factoid.
Also, polls that ask if you would ever vote for someone, without specifying the alternative, are suspect. Remember the poll that said 60 percent of voters would never vote for a socialist? Does anyone really believe Trump would therefore have gotten at least 60 percent of the popular vote against Bernie Sanders? I think that Sanders using the word socialist was a political mistake, but, in our polarized era, no major party nomination is going to result ina 5-alarm landslide.
As for Trump doing worse in the primaries than an incumbent would, yes, that’s true. It also is true that he isn’t exactly an incumbent.
The paraphrase, in the post immediately above, is not exactly what I wrote. Beyond that, ticket splitters exist among primary voters – I’ve been one – but I admit to making a statistical claim without data in hand, and without willingness to go back and prove it.
Do you really think this election is exactly the same as every other election before it? We’ve never had an attempted coup before for one thing. I think you are being naive to think that conventional wisdom is all we need to predict November. There is not much conventional about this current situation.
By the way, going back to ongoing Trump poll underperformance, he was projected to take Michigan by 56 points. He only won by 41 points. 30 to 40 percent of the party is against him and continues to vote against him even though it is clear at this time that he will get the delegates needed to clinch. You can assume that these voters will change their minds on him again before November, but that also ignores that MAGA is actively purging these same people from their ranks. This is what happens with cults, the purity tests get more and more strict, they threaten and bully and eventually kick those out that won’t stay 100% loyal. They distill themselves down to the most fanatical getting more and more extreme. We are seeing this happen in real time, right in front of us. To ignore all of this and rely on conventional election wisdom seems … unwise to me.
We have the thread “Anti-Trump resistance has become exhausted”, but I think it’s more accurate to say “Pro-Trump enthusiasm has waned”. Many Republicans are exhausted by Trump just as much as we are. His most strident supporters shout louder to cover for his dropping support. I’m not sure how much this will affect the primaries or the general election.
They can only hope they are kicked out. In it’s most extreme, you’ll get purges of the “disloyal” amongst themselves. Sort of like the 1978 Eastern Zone purge in Cambodia.
Huh. Well…good for her? As icky as that is to say. On that same page-Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are supporting her, which means…something. Though I’m sure they’ll quicky pivot to supporting him when he wins.
Total turnout for the Republican primary was 2,000 voters, out of 464,000 registered voters in DC. I’m guessing that 2,000 is largely lobbyists, Georgetown economics professors and Republican congressional staffers who couldn’t afford to move out to the suburbs.
Sure, most of it is awful, but I don’t think his mind can expand to the point that he could actually have “an awful lot”. Even “a lot” seems a stretch, but I am generous.
None of this matters.
Republicans would back Brain Dead Hitler Jr. if they thought that he would win and/or piss off what used to be political rivals but are now genuinely thought of as enemies. They are actually relieved to dump the veneer of cooperation and civility that they used to wear publicly.
I guess this number hasn’t changed but a recent poll found that 70% of Rs still think the election we was stolen. That really tells you all you need to know about the Republican party of today.
