Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024

From your link:

If Trump is somehow rejected from the ballot or is incapable of serving,

That “somehow” is doing pretty heavy lifting, just like in this thread. Sure, he might die or otherwise become fully incapacitated, but otherwise there’s still no reasonable set of circumstances that keep him off the ballot.

I’m not even convinced that most types of incapacitation would keep him off.

I have two problems with this:

  1. it’s one reporter’s opinion; and

  2. everything Trump is doing now is no more or less outrageous or stupid than what he has already done, and those things did not dissuade people from electing him in '16, or from not voting for him in '20.

Nothing has changed and, notwithstanding all the commentary about his cognitive degeneration, I don’t see any difference, or at least a sufficient difference to deter his followers.

If he magically degenerates so much in the next few weeks (and it would have to be the next few weeks IMO) that he has to be put in a nursing home to be spoon fed and to have his diapers changed, then yes, he won’t be the nominee. But a slight increase in word-salad and lies won’t do it.

Geez, that Salon link (in post #759) is terrible journalism.

Its main evidence comes from long quotes of an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University Medical School. Surely this guy’s predictions must be true, right? :slight_smile:

And then it gives us the money shot, a quote which is so important it is repeated in headline of the article: “a real shit-show”. It’s a phrase spoken anonymously by “a Trump organizer in Wisconsin”. Again, this is surely guaranteed, perfect proof that the article is correct and the whole Republican party is in panic mode. :slight_smile:

The author, Brian Karem, made an error: Dr. John Gartner hasn’t been with Johns Hopkins since 2015. Gartner may or may not be speaking of Trump from a dispassionate medical standpoint, but his political activism must be noted:

Still, Gartner could well be right. Despite him being a naked partisan, I’m not prepared to discount his opinions out of hand (mostly because I don’t have the matching expertise to do so). Anyone interested in a deeper dive in what Gartner has said about Trump’s mental health should read liberal commentator Jay Kuo’s recent interview with the doctor.

I could end up being wrong because the GOP decides to commit political suicide instead of giving themselves some sort of chance with a different candidate (I mean, I already think they’re doing that).

I’ll take that deal though. If a fully incapacitated Trump is the nominee but his condition becomes obvious to all, the GOP will die sooner rather than later.

The GOP in most areas doesn’t fear losing political power in their own bailwicks, and losing power on the national level has proven to be very successful for them - they don’t have to accomplish anything, and just blame it all on their enemies.

The GOP fears committing political suicide by being primaried by MAGA and related crazies, thus losing their own comfy positions, grifts, and post-political careers.

Most that DON’T do this math have retired, been forced out, or are otherwise pushed to the fringe and are considered Democrats in all but Name.

This is probably one of the best possible outcomes for the GOP long-term. If an incapacitated Trump is kicked off the ballot, the party dissolves into vicious squabbling about who gets to take up the MAGA throne, and those squabbles and fractures continue for years.

But imagine a scenario where an incapacitated Trump stays on the ballot. It’s maybe the only kind of loss that even MAGAland will accept. It’s an opportunity for them to say “of course we lost, the man is in a coma, now let’s discuss where we go from here now that he’s gone.” As time wears on there are going to be fewer and fewer opportunities for them to pivot away from destruction, but a decisive loss that can’t be readily spun as “stolen” would be one of them.

Good observation – I agree.

Good points. I think you are absolutely right. In a way, it’s better for them to be grifting below the level of the presidency and not be exposed to criticism for real policy decisions.

Also a good point.

And while those are good points by JKellyMap, Johnny_Bravo, and ParallelLines, it ultimately isn’t good for a “real” political party–which the GOP, at this point, is not. If what y’all say comes to pass, we Democrats will have a lot of good stuff to build on.

I’m not even convinced that being dead would keep him off. :crazy_face:

trump is the Republican nominee.

Sadly, I’m not either at this point.

I think that Trump will not be the nominee owing to his own dropping out for legal or medical reasons.

Trump could be like Adams’ Hotblack Desiato who was reported as “spending a year dead for tax reasons.”

It’s a very common fallacy and one that Trump makes all the time to think that anything he doesn’t know, nobody knows. It’s a manifestation of hubris.

Why would the GOP lose?

Trump’s favorability polling is consistently underwater. If truly incapacitated, the RNC will probably meet and ask Trump electors to vote for the likely more popular veep nominee as president.

It also does depend on details. If the veep nominee is truly Palinesque, they have a problem. If Trump had a severe stroke — worse than Fetterman — but was awake enough to insist that he would never accept being pushed aside, that is a political problem for the GOP.

There’s a mistaken idea here that most Trump voters are fanatics who can accept him and no one else.

I’ve seen zero evidence of that being a mistaken idea.

I’d say there’s a solid number of Republican voters who are solidly Trump-only, but not 100%. Maybe 30-40% of the Republican base. So more than enough to sink most if not all other candidates, and making it hard to settle for anyone without the imprimatur of his Orangeness if he was forced to withdraw.

It may be that the Trump supporters I know are atypical. If the thread title comes true, we’ll find out.

Yeah, the Trump supporters you know are atypical or maybe you’ve misunderstood their position. Maybe they would support MTG or someone like that but I don’t see anyone else they would accept.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - only way the thread title comes true is if DJT dies. Period. He owns the GOP at this point and has installed his flunkies to run it.