Most- yes, but by no means all. Maybe as little as half, but IMHO- most.
“From your lips to God’s ears!” old Yiddish saying.
I’m not convinced. I think he’ll remain the nominee even if he’s dead.
The large pool of prospective alternative candidates who were rarely able to dent Trump’s popularity and consistently rise above single-digit support would like a word with you.
I hope this is true. But liberals often seem a little too sure that Trump can’t win. We saw this in 2016 with Clinton.
Biden won in 2020, but it’s been a long 4 years. The Afghanistan withdraw debacle, the Israel-Hamas war, the daily shit show in the House putting Ukraine in jeopardy.
[Long exposition deleted]
And Trump is the “Teflon Don”. Reagan got that label, but Trump has defied all political logic and precedent. Any other candidate would have been politically nonviable a dozen scandals ago. A million misstatements and deliberate lies. But he’s still there.
It’s too easy to dismiss Trump, but nowhere has he paid real consequences, and his base just keeps getting slapped in the face and begging for more. The more outlandish Trump is, the more they blame Biden and accuse him of the same things.
I’m enthused whenever I meet conservatives who want to dump Trump, but too many will hold their nose and vote for the Party regardless, because damn Democrat liberal commies.
Those examples all favor Biden. Trump surrendered to the Taliban. Trump is trying to escalate the Hamas war. Trump is directing the House.
I don’t think Trump’s loss is a sure thing. We need to get the vote out, again. But the facts and the politics favor Biden.
He’s paying real consequences right now in New York. He is being forced to sit his shit-leaking ass down every day in the courtroom and “take it.” This would suck for anybody, but for him it is sheer torment. Moreover, it’s not politically beneficial and is at least doing some damage (if only because he can’t campaign during this time).
Pennsylvania just had its primary, and, despite the fact that she dropped out 6 weeks ago, Haley still got 17 percent of the vote! Meanwhile, Biden got 93 percent, so there isn’t a parallel protest vote in the case of the Democrats.
Trump and the GOP are going to be destroyed in November. The only thing that can stop it at this point is Biden becoming incapacitated or dying.
Oh, he certainly can. What it would take is the youth vote and indys staying home or voting 3rd party. Plus a little bad luck for Biden.
I’d say Joe has a 60% chance of winning in November. Okay, that’s not bad, but by no means is it a sure thing. Roevember will help- a lot.
At least James Comey isn’t in a position of power any more.
After 2016 I refuse to allow myself to be overconfident ever again. I didn’t appreciate then the depths of hatred conservatives had for even the mild brand of progressivism we have in this country.
It wasn’t just liberals it was Trump himself who didn’t think he’d win in 2016. Even back then, he set the stage by claiming the election was rigged and even after he won continued by arguing that he actually won the popular vote. And while I do believe Trump will lose the 2024 election, I’m not comfortable enough to believe it’s a sure thing. I’m very, very nervous about the possibility he might win.
We’ve been seeing some serious cracks in the Republican Party especially with it’s dysfunctional House of Representatives and the Republican National Convention itself. The House recently decided to provide aid to Urkaine over the objections of MAGAts and Trump. Trump was forced to make a statement that he approved of the deal after it had been made to avoid losing face. And then there’s the RNC debacle where donors are hesitant to give for fear of their money being used for Trump’s. In another sign of weakness, Trump had to mafia style lean on Republicans who use his image or name to kick back 5% of any funds donated to their campaigns…or else. And then Nikki Haley had a ton of support in Pennsylvania even though she suspsended her campaign.
Trump doesn’t have as much control as he used to despite taking over the RNC. Many House Republicans are willing to make deals with the Democrats and push bills through without the blessing of their Orange Jesus. I’m optimistic about the 2024 election but of course I’m still a bit worried.
As I’ve said multiple times in this thread, yes, I think Trump is definitely going to lose in November, if he even gets the nomination. But that hardly solves the problem, since we’ve got roughly 1/3 of the electorate who enthusiastically supported him and would rather have a dictatorship than a democracy. That’s a serious political sickness that will take a generation to cure.
The upside of Trump winning is that the country is going to come apart, and we’re going to put it back together better this time, eliminating all of the antidemocratic bullshit that we have to deal with now, such as the Supreme Court, the Electoral College, the Senate, gerrymandering–all of it. Yes, it will suck, but things are unviable right now. I hope Biden wins and we can kick the can down the road and have the change happen in a more orderly manner over a longer period of time, but, make no mistake, this country cannot be run in the current manner for much longer.
I’ve come to the conclusion Trump will never see a day in jail or prison. Any conviction will result in home confinement. I doubt he’d even get an ankle monitor, as he can argue the Secret Sevice can witness he never leaves.
I would love to see him carted off to a prison, or even spend a few days in jail for contempt, but I just don’t see it happening. I hope I’m wrong, but an confident I’m right.
Ok, I deleted my explanation as off topic, but this thread has sufficiently wandered that I will address it. Yes, it was Trump who declared the withdrawal and set the date. But the execution was under Biden’s leadership. And that withdrawal was a complete debacle, based on Biden’s decisions. It resulted in abandoning weapons and equipment that immediately fell into the hands of the Taliban. It was the abandonment of our commitment to Afghans who assisted us who we owe a debt to take care of them, but we didn’t. Then there’s the highly visible disaster of extraction at the airport, including people falling off of airplanes as they took off, and a deadly bombing right outside the gates.
None of that was Trump’s doing. It’s all because of Biden’s decisions about how to execute the withdrawal.
Trump is irrelevant on this. I admit Biden is in a difficult position. Israel is right to pursue Hamas, but there method is indescriminate. This leaves many people feeling their actions are tantamount to genocide. But if Biden publically announces withdrawal of support for Israel - nevermind America’s geopolitical interest - it would embolden Israel’s enemies to more aggressive attacks, perhaps even full open war. Biden is desperately trying to prevent that.
But Biden can’t simultaneously satisfy Israel supporters and critics. That’s not his goal, it is to keep the war from escalating while trying to provide humanitarian aid and some level of constraint in Israel.
But whatever he does, he faces criticism from his voters and perhaps loss of support. Enough to impact the election? I don’t know, but possibly.
True, Trump effected the deal on the Border security deal, which delayed the funding for Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan. But the chaos in the House is largely the result of the extremist faction more concerned with personal aggrandisement and grandstanding than in a functional government.
The disfunction in Congress isn’t Biden’s fault, but it is his obstacle to overcome.
Yes, I should modify my remark. He has managed to largely skate on repercussions to himself for most of his life. Even the E. Jean Carroll judgement isn’t really real to him yet because appeals are ongoing and he hasn’t had to pay up on the judgement yet.
Sitting in court is the first real consequences he can’t skip. Here’s looking forward to more, but none of this is killing his support from his followers. They eagerly lap up whatever he spews out and become more engrossed by his lies.
He’s still skated on political repurcussions he should have faced for the insurrection, for the Carroll judgement, for violating the gag order. He should be an anathema to any politician. He should be shunned and despised, not lauded and supported.
I truly hope so.
Sentencing will be up to the judge, right? I think there will be a strong incentive for him to show that Trump is not above the law and to give him a short prison sentence. It won’t be that hard. Find a disused jail or similar facility and tell Trump and the Secret Service, “Here is your prison for three months. You can watch TV, but no social media.” Etc. etc. Not sure why that’s impossible if he is convicted.
I agree. He lives in his own reality, and this is pretty much the first time in his life he’s had to face reality reality.
Yep, but we know that Trump’s base wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, so…
Indeed. I’m curious how any of his enablers, including Mitch McConnel and all the nutjobs in the House, think that their legacy is going to be anything other than complete disgrace. A great power was turned upside down by nazified electorate and a political party become nothing more than a group of clowns and morons. The deluded to think that anyone will do anything other than despise them, looking back.
I agree. I think there’s a strong and understandable sentiment that Trump has never, in his entire miserable life, faced real consequences for his vile deeds. I get it. Why wouldn’t people see that as the safe bet?
But I think people aren’t thinking this through. Once he is convicted of a felony, the “Teflon Don” ship has already sailed. It’s over. His fate is then in the hands of a judge who has sentencing guidelines for a crime that routinely places the convicted in the slammer. As has been hashed out multiple times in various threads, there are simply no huge logistical obstacles to putting him in prison.
We’re a long way off from a conviction, but if he is found guilty, I believe he’ll be cooling his heels in prison as a result.
No logistical obstacles - I will agree.
However, I’m also of the strong opinion that Trump will not spend 15 minutes in any form of prison, jail or custody. Ever. Even if convicted and all appeals are exhausted. He won’t even get house arrest.
He’ll keep blathering more and more victimhood bleatings until the day he dies.
Further prediction - decades after his death, there will be an offshoot Christian sect that centers around Trump. There will need to be a Paul the Apostle to re-write some of the Trump history first.
But what do you base this on? Why would a judge ignore sentencing guidelines at that point? “Sure, everyone else goes to prison for that, but not Trump.” Why?
I’ll give my point on this one @Stratocaster. Because it’s an esoteric (for the layperson) white collar crime, and the judge (regardless of personal feelings) probably doesn’t want to push into unusual sentences. A white collar criminal in NY, who hasn’t previously been convicted (his business, yes, and on unrelated manners in civil suits) would probably get a hefty fine, and a suspended or at-home sentence, and move on.
Sure, it could go to jail time, but I bet very few do. So the judge will sentence to the guidelines, which I bet will leave him at house-arrest at the worst.
NOW, on the other hand, once he’s convicted once of a felony, any OTHER crimes (if he doesn’t win the election and squash them, or the like) are going to be crimes committed by a convicted felon, and so may see far less deference.
I don’t think guidelines say the judge MUST give jail time for any of Trumps crimes if convicted. He will be given the lightest sentence possible
Okay, so we’re specifically referring to the hush money case. I took it, apparently incorrectly, to be that Trump will never go to prison, not for any crime, not if he’s convicted. It’s the latter I take exception with.
I think he will have a strong incentive to give him a sentence that is precisely commensurate with what other people convicted of the same crime have received.
Maybe one of our resident lawyers can opine on this. Can a judge keep Trump off social media as part of a prison/jail sentence? Under what circumstances? Clearly, his defense team will object on First Amendment grounds.