CEOs of financial interests in general and Jamie Dimon in particular are more flexible than a Cirque du Soleil performer when it comes to politics. “Make hay when the sun is shining and when it rains, grab a bucket, “ is their mantra. Gotta make deals and please investors even if the king is pulling the temple down upon our heads.
Stranger
This is a common style choice. Disagree if you like but I see it done this way in many publications.
I associate this with The Economist. To me, it’s like ABC News is trying to be as cool and awesome as that august publication.
/hijack
Alright, some very good points, thank you!
For those who are imagining how Trump would take over once he became president, I have another thread:
I basically theorize we would be in a state of Civil War before he could do much.
Now I’d like to talk about the common suggestion that Trump would run as a 3rd party candidate and spoil things for the GOP. I think this is incorrect. He couldn’t/wouldn’t do it, and, even if he did, it would be better for the GOP than not pushing him out. Reasons:
1. He couldn’t/wouldn’t run 3rd party
A. Several of the potential causes for his dropping out would preclude a 3rd party run.
If he is in prison or extremely ill, then he is not going to run 3rd party.
If he is being pushed out for bad behavior, then he might be amenable to various carrot (e.g., bribery) and stick (threats of denouncement, etc.) incentives.
B. He wouldn’t have time.
Take a look at the filing deadlines for candidates:
He wouldn’t be able to get on the ballot as an independent. E.g., Florida requires 145,040 signatures by July 15. We know how Trump’s ego works. If he is pushed out because he is “being bad,” then he would fight all the way to GOP convention to be the nominee and not be collecting sigs in the Sunshine State.
Now, he could try to become the candidate of a larger party, such as the Libertarian Party, but they have their own primary rules. Further, not all parties are on the ballots of all 50 states.
C. He wouldn’t be able to make the effort.
Trump is ill, crazy, and tired. This fact is what might save us if he were actually to become president again. Sure, he would run his mouth about running 3rd party, but I don’t think he actually has the energy to do it.
2. It would be better for the GOP to push Trump out, even if he does run 3rd party.
The GOP “leadership” now consists of craven fools fully lacking in vision. If they had any, they would see that the longer Trump remains in control of the party, then the longer it will take for the party to heal and become a normal political party in the future, if it even can at this point (hint: it can’t).
As other posters have noted, however, a strong incentive for these feckless morons is to retain their own offices and money. Ditching Trump even if he goes nuclear is better for them in that, even if the MAGAs vote for 3rd party Trump, they will still probably at least turn up at the polls and vote for the Republican candidate in other races. Plus, they still have a chance of winning the presidency, since, if Trump gets enough votes, the election could go to the House of Representatives. Finally, not having Trump on the ballot would demotivate those who are specifically going to the polls to vote against Trump, which in turn would have a salutary effect on the GOP downballot.
In such a scenario, I think the most likely outcome is a Biden win and a pretty good blue wave. But it’s better for the GOP than the alternative: A drooling, crazed Trump (i.e., what he already is) on the ballot will massively motivate Democrat turnout, guaranteeing (IMO) a crushing Biden victory and a massive blue wave.
But for this to have a chance of happening, both Trump and the GOP candidate would need a big chance of winning states. Most states vote at least 40% Democrat, and some that seem shoo-ins for the GOP are still only 55% GOP.
Even the swing states are enough to put Biden over the top if the conservative votes are split. But Biden would have a chance to pick up many former Republican strongholds in any logical scenario in which both right-wing candidates are viable. Even if 80% of them can agree on one candidate, 20% of them disagreeing would turn a safe state blue.
Of course, it’s possible that the candidates’ votes would be split almost exactly along state lines, such that Trump wins a couple states outright, and the GOP candidate wins enough to prevent a Democratic majority, but the reverse scenario seems far more likely.
I think you are correct!
Still, if we grant that Trump will lose vs. Biden but is still strong enough to retain his rabid base (which he almost certainly would), then Trump’s 3rd party run still gives the GOP the chance to win (with either their own candidate or Trump, which would also be equivalent to the GOP winning), whereas a head-to-head between Trump and Biden would only produce a loss as well as downballot disaster.
For those citing polls, here is a good article from Kos describing how a large percentage of the electorate is still in denial about the race (which in turn limits the value of current polling data):
I just don’t see this. It would split the R vote, and give Biden an overwhelming victory. We’re talking Biden with 500+ Electoral Votes.
Why on Earth would MAGA-heads – enraged at the GOP elite for stabbing Trump in the back – turn around and vote for these very same Republican officeholders down ballot?
A for effort, but there’s just no way this hypothetical Republican schism helps the GOP in 2024.
Yep, but many Republicans have moved from “party first” to “me first”. They’re fine with the party burning down. And the Republicans who aren’t fine with that already are marginalized as compromisers and RINO.
As one of those people who was hypothesizing that the GOP dumping Trump would create a third party, I need to clarify my prediction.
First off, I was assuming that the dumping was an active attempt, and not just that Trump was rendered incapable of running due to health or legal issues. In those cases the GOP will probably have minimal fallout.
Second, while you are correct that wouldn’t/can’t run as a third party candidate this year, that doesn’t mean that he can’t act as a spoiler. His most likely strategy would be to casitgate the incumbent and the entire GOP party and run as a write in candidate.
As for his voters going on to vote in lower office races, Trump’s rage at the GOP will probably be such that he will instruct his followers not to vote in any of those races, unless it is a particularly hard line MAGA who is supporting his war against the GOP.
The third party comes in post 2024 where the disaffected MAGAs look for some other place to go than the evil Democrats or the traitorous GOP.
It’s a complicated game theory-style analysis, and I am not saying it’s a slam dunk, but let’s look at the scenarios side by side:
Assumption: Republicans come to believe, based on evidence such as polls, etc., that Trump will lose to Biden with significant fallout in downballot races.
(Note that if the assumption isn’t true–i.e., if Trump seems poised to beat Biden–then of course the GOP will keep him. My OP argues that the time is coming soon in which the assumption will be true and the GOP will be forced to choose between the scenarios below.)
Scenario 1: The GOP keeps Trump
Scenario 2A: The GOP pushes Trump out, successfully mollifies him, and goes with Haley (less likely than 2B IMO)
Scenario 2B: The GOP pushes Trump out, fails to mollify him, and goes with Haley; Trump goes ballistic (more likely than 2A IMO)
The important thing to note here is that the GOP can attempt Scenario 2A while having 2B as a fallback option. Most importantly, IMO, Scenario 2B is much to be preferred over Scenario 1. The results in the election are significantly better, and, having formally rejected Trump, the party can begin to be (or at least pretend to be) normal again.
You lost me here.
Haha, well…
I do think that a certain segment of the “leadership” has an eye on the polls and can at least perceive via gut feel when the Big L is coming down the pike.
If you count a 3 point GOP electoral college advantage, Trump has been continuously ahead of Biden in polling averages for 14 months now. If this reverses for a month or two, they’d have every reason to consider it temporary (except if due to Trump being in prison, which IMHO is quite unlikely in the next nine months).
If Trump went down in the polls due to a felony conviction, they’d expect the effect to wear off as the news becomes the appeal.
If Trump is no longer in the running for the GOP nomination, Trump delegates get to vote for whomever they want. Other than Christie, she’s the last person they would pick.
Same comment as above with your Scenario 2B.
Can’t find it, but Nate Silver said the same. I didn’t understand why this will make a big difference when the candidates are already so well-known. It’s not like asking about Obama-McCain a year before when many voters has barely heard of Obama.
However, I do know there’s time for the current race to go back and forth a few times. I wish it would start!
All right. I don’t really agree with a lot of your assumptions and conclusions, but I guess we’ll find out one way or another!
I don’t understand how this is supposed to happen. Just how is the GOP going to force him out? Right now, the GOP is the Grand Orangeone’s Party, so I don’t see a mechanism that’ll push him out of being the nominee.
Aside from all the specific analysis, we should all keep in mind that we are living in maybe the most volatile times in our lives, and there is a long way to go. That could be to the benefit of Trump or Biden. For example, there are bound to be major shifts in the various wars going on, and we don’t knoow how any of it will look in November.
I think the idea is that poll respondents (regardless of poll-question wording/framing) frequently address a hypothetical case in which they actually are faced with choices different than the poll question poses.
Many months out, it’s trivial to give a “protest response” to a poll. There are no stakes.
January 2024: “I’m a lifelong Democtratic voter … but Biden’s too old and I don’t like Harris for reasons. Harumph! I’ll choose ‘Undecided’”
Election Day 2024, same person: "Push has come to shove … no way can I pull the lever for Trump. And a third-party vote is essentially a Trump vote. Biden it is."