Yes, there’s been “speculation” about these kinds of things for decades. The difference here is, it was never the president himself talking about it. Whether you think this is legally possible or not, we have Trump himself saying he’d be “allowed” to do it, and he’s only restraining himself because it would be “too cute” to play such games. And we all know what value to place on Trump saying he’d never do a thing.
We’re in the Constitutional position of “The call is coming from inside the house” now. This is unlike anything that’s ever come before, and a lot of the tools that you might have used even a just few years ago to prevent this from happening have been broken.
If Trump is alive in 2028, he’s absolutely going to try to stay in power, in some fashion. Maybe this VP gambit, maybe something else, but the VP thing has just enough wiggle room to let the SCOTUS save face by supporting it.
I have a feeling I’m going to regret posting this, especially as I have done it before here and got into quite an argument…
Since the 22nd Amendment does not disqualify anyone from being President - it only disqualifies them from being elected President, something Trump will not be doing in 2028 - Trump would not be “Constitutionally ineligible” to be President, so he would not be disqualified from being VP by the 12th Amendment.
You know what would be fun? If the Republican Party makes Trump their nominee in 2028 but many states (including swing states) refuse to put him on the ballot, and he loses in an electoral landslide.
Not sure if this was asked upthread, but if the Constitution says Trump cannot be elected to a third term (but this doesn’t stop him from running for a third term,) then if Trump does indeed run and wins 270 or more electoral votes, would the Supreme Court just deny him his victory and hand it to the runner-up (or whomever the Electoral College chooses instead of Trump?)
No, because they’re (the majority, at least) in his pocket. You can’t rely on the Supreme Court, or a Republican controlled Congress, to save you from this. If they were inclined to stand up to Trump like this, they’d have done it long before now. In another three years, they’ll be just that more subservient to him.
If Obama tried to run in 2028, the Supreme Court would rule 9-0 that he is ineligible. However, if DJT tries it, the Supreme Court Republicans Of The United Maga States might well look the other way. Thomas and Alito, I guarantee 100% would vote to allow his 3rd term, perhaps under the guise of “this is an emergency and we can suspend the Constitution” or “The 22nd does not specifically mention DJT by name, so we can ignore it.” Kavanaugh would likely also go along, depending on whether he is sober at the time. Roberts has long since stopped worrying about the appearance of impartiality, so there might be four votes in the bag already. Gorsuch would be 50-50 and Barrett no more than 10% likely to ignore the Constitution. Of course the whole point is moot if DJT is doing the hokey croaky by 2028, but don’t count on the Supremes to save democracy. They simply don’t give a shit.
This is hyperbole; the total authority of the Supreme Court comes exclusively from their ability to interpret the Constitution as written. (Yes, I know people can cherry-pick examples of reasoning from ‘that penumbra’ that clearly extends beyond the text of the Constitution, but in no case has the Court simply struck out actual text.)
Trump could, however, be voted into the Speakership of the House of Representatives, and then find his way to the presidency by the generous serial resignations of President and Vice President, which would technically avoid the annoying restrictions of the 12th and 22nd amendments. Would such chicanery work? I doubt we will ever find out because Trump isn’t not the kind of person to play a game of political chess; he’s a child more likely to turn the table over and declare that he’s won by default, and I suspect the strategy will be something more along the lines of declaring the election invalid and holding a Congressional vote for expediency of highly suspect Constitutionality. At some point, it wouldn’t matter if the Supreme Court agrees or not as long as there is sufficient momentum and enough legally confoundment to forestall any decision. But frankly, all of this assumes that Trump is still alive in circa late 2028 or the Heritage Foundation and Susie Wiles can sufficiently ‘Weekend at Bernies’ his barely animated near-corpse to appear capable of holding office. I actually fear that something even worse may occur, and that we end up with a true dictator instead of a pretender-king who is more interested in personal wealth and vengeance against all perceived enemies that constructing a functional autocracy.
Much like running for VP, I doubt Trump’s ego would ever allow him to run for an inferior office even under the slightest of pretenses. Nor would he trust the elected president/VP to step down once they were in position, because he’d absolutely never honor any such deal for anyone else, and, as a sociopath, he assumes that nobody else in that position would either.
The thing is, he wouldn’t have to run for any office. The House can elect anybody to be Speaker…it doesn’t have to be a Representative. DJT can sit back until the House elects him, and then smile as Vance and DeSantis resign.
Which brings me to my second point - Trump would never in a million years trust them to resign, and I can’t imagine that Ron “It is my birthright to rule over you peasants” DeSantis would go through running for president and winning just to stand aside for Trump, nor Vance who AFAICT has no values or beliefs of his own aside from the acquisition of personal power and prestige.
I question whether SCOTUS would be the party that makes the decision. In most countries, when there is a seriously disputed election, the military ultimately decides. You might say generals won’t want to be responsible for the decision. But neither will John Roberts. And Pete Hegseth is working hard to appoint pro-Trump military commanders.
There also is the question of what we mean by being the serving president. Normally, the same person lives in the White House and is treated as military commander in chief and has the Senate vote on their cabinet (and other) nominees. I have no confidence January 2029 will be normal. The locus of power could be split or unclear for a few weeks.
I really don’t see Trump being a factor in 2028 at all, despite his bluster. If he’s even still lucid at that point (which I highly doubt given how much he’s degenerated over the last year), he’s not going to have any interest in the various shenanigans that people here are putting forward nor the energy to pursue them, and he’ll likely lose all interest once it becomes a foregone conclusion that the Republicans are moving on and planning for a future without him as the center of the universe.
The only requirements to BE President are:
35 years old
Natural born citizen
14 year resident in the United States
“Being” is not the same as “being elected” as Congress debated when writing the amendment.
I see many posters saying they think he is on the brink of death or won’t live much longer and I don’t understand why. Frankly, I expect he has +/- a decade left. His family history suggests he will make it to his mid 80s.