Trump won just 8% of the African American vote in 2016. Since then his approval rating with African Americans has skyrocketed to 36%, probably due to him improving the economy, giving tax breaks to middle class and working class individuals, and having record low in-employment. Even jobs such as manufacturing, and Obama once said are not coming back are. The optics of tariffs also makes some think that more domestic companies and new companies might be hiring more people in the USA.
If Trump can merely double the percentage of the African American vote in 2020, ( say 16% of the African American vote or higher ) Democrats will be in some trouble as they count on 88-90+% of the African American vote to win elections.
What is the correlation to approval ratings in a demographic group to votes for him or her on election day?