Trump's Republican primary campaign

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@DSeid

I have no “wishful thinking” involved. Again, my best guess is that a Trump nomination would be great for the Democratic party and lead to significant downticket gains. I just think it is more likely that come caucus day that he will be blown out of the water than you do.

Exactly-my predictions are based on current polls and the evidence of the past few months.

Those “likely voters” now stating support for those candidates polling 5% and under, a total of 15 to 17%? Come caucus day they tend to break for one of the top three or four. (Look up RCPs polls and actual results for Iowa and NH GOP caucus and primary in 2012 if you don’t believe me.) And I do not think they will be breaking for Trump. But we’ll see.

Those primaries and caucuses occurred in a context where fewer candidates were running and where there was a definite candidate in each camp (ie the Establishment, Christian Right, Libertarians). Here you have candidates with a certain minimal base of support owing to previous contests (Huckabee and Santorum), a divided Establishment, and of course Rand Paul’s core libertarian support.

No the overlap between Trump and Cruz supporters is far from absolute. But someone who is supporting Trump is more likely to move to Cruz than say Rubio if they for whatever reason drop Trump.

And conversely someone dropping Cruz is more likely to move to Trump.

As far as what the polls show regarding those not true independents - in NH the latest ARG poll broke it down. Among declared Republicans Trump comes in tied for second in NH. Rubio at 16% and Trump tied with Kasich at 15%. It’s his strength with undeclareds that puts him on top, in that poll totals together to 21% to Rubio’s 15% and Kasich’s 13%. That said among those who claim that they are “definitely” going to vote in the GOP primary he leads … but narrowly: 19% to 15% for both Rubio and Kasich and another 13% for Christie. Cruz down at 10%. Also of note in that poll he overwhelmingly leads in being the candidate that the most “would never vote for in the primary” at 57% with only 37% (the least of all the contenders) willing to “consider voting for in the primary.” Alternatively 74% would consider voting for Cruz in the primary and 83% would consider voting for Rubio.

ARG is literally a garbage poll that makes the 1936 Literary Digest poll look accurate, so there is nothing to discuss here (Kasich at 13% LOL).

I am not so sure that independents for Sanders are all so obsessed with “respectability” as much as they are impressed with those who they believe believes what they are saying whether it is popular or not and is not part of what they think of as the Washington insider elite. He also channels their anger but directs not at immigrants and Muslims but at Wall Street and those too cozy with those interests.

While this pains me to say as a Sanders supporter, its clear Sanders has failed to gain any significant traction among working-class voters so it seems to be that there’ll be little chance of overlap between the Sanders and Trump coalitions as much as wish it were otherwise.