And in news that should surprise absolutely nobody, Trump’s strongest supporters are former Democrats.
Kim Davis Democrats, in other words.
No, the article is not surprising at all:
The article correctly goes on to state explicitly that such correlation is not necessarily causation.
The data they cite also shows him doing well in all GOP groups; this is just where his relative strength is. It explicitly excludes undecideds.
I am standing by my prediction: the polls overestimate the numbers who will come out to vote for him. His greatest strength is with the marginally connected to the GOP, those least likely to come out to vote (and in some cases not allowed to vote) in a GOP primary. He will lose solidly in Iowa to Cruz, possibly not even coming in second, and certainly not a close second. And on the heels of that failure to meet expectations he will fail to win in New Hampshire albeit a whole crew will be clumped together with Rubio likely coming out on top, and Cruz, Trump and several others all just below. From there it becomes mostly a Cruz Rubio race as Trump’s story becomes the story of failed expectations. Just like lots of his other projects …
That’s the strongest evidence yet that he’ll underperform his polling. Registered Democrats can’t vote in most primaries.
As the article also notes, TRUMP leads in all demographics-those are just the demographics he happens to be the strongest with. And he is undoubtedly being underpolled due to TRUMP’s perceived lack of respectability.
LOL. There is no “expectation” that TRUMP needs to win Iowa and considering both Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa while being crushed in the course of the primaries, its clear the caucauses are not particularly reflect of the national contest. That said, Trump’s been tied or nipping at Cruz’s heels in most of the polls. Even assuming he is underperforming there’s no way TRUMP won’t get a respectable second place-Iowa likes the Establishment quartet even less, Carson’s campaign is in terminal decline, and Huckabee/Santorum/Paul all have abysmal numbers.
Double LOL. TRUMP has a solid lead in every New Hampshire poll. With the Establishment completely divided due to Jeb!, Rubio, Koch Kuck Kasich, and Krispy Kreme Khristie all staking their bets on the state there’s no way their forces will be able to unite much less overpower TRUMP’s base of support.
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Keep telling yourself that.
Except of course unless they decide to change their registration.
That takes an extra step, which means a little extra motivation. It also requires knowing they have to, and these kinds of Democrats don’t tend to be the sharpest tools in the shed.
And Trump is that little motivation. Nice to see some classism on this forum too I guess.
Everything about this race, both the primaries and the real election, hinge on turnout & motivation.
In 2008 a lot of Obama’s polling showed his large lead was concentrated amongst folks who, based on historical patterns, were unlikely to actually vote. But vote they did and the rest is history.
IMO anyone here who is confidently predicting that Trump’s supporters will stay home *en masse *are full of false confidence. Likewise those who predict they’ll actually vote en masse.
IMO there will be a large surprise in turnout. I just can’t predict whether it’ll be much higher or much lower than typical experience suggests. I personally lean towards higher but that’s my gut, not any real fact-based analysis.
“Undoubtedly” being underpolled? No. “Possibly”? Maybe.
Yes, I noted that among those who have decided he does lead in all demographics; the article is about relative strength.
The expectation is not that Trump needs to win in Iowa, but the expectation is that he will be close there. Trumps campaigns on how he is the best, the strongest, the hugest, all based on polling numbers (and when the numbers are occasionally not favorable on how incompetent the pollster is). If he is relatively blown out of the water in Iowa then that story line becomes the Emperor has no clothes, how he is all puff and no filling. Suddenly those who want to vote against the establishment GOP begin to see Cruz as their standard bearer splitting the anti-establishment vote that comes out to vote GOP, maybe 15-20 each, with the bigger question being if the establishment vote coalesces around whoever was closest of that group in Iowa, which I think will be Rubio. I think enough that he will come in first there.
Of course there are other factors at play in NH. Not only can registered Democrats not vote in the GOP primary there (and I don’t think they can change now), but the race between Clinton and Sanders is close with Sanders having a strong presence there. The true independents, the motivated independents, those who mainly just want to vote against business as usual, will have to decide which side’s primary to vote in. They may decide that the thumb in Clinton’s eye and keeping Sanders alive with a NH win is more important to them than voting for a disappointing performing Trump.
Personally I don’t have a strong opinion about who the GOP nominee should be. The appeal of Trump I think rests on his transgressive nature. Many of the angry find someone saying it not in code appealing. That however makes him a strong motivator for voter turn out against him in a general as well, I think a bigger factor than the turn out for. Just my best guesses though.
But yes LSLGuy is correct … history only is predictive until it is not. Maybe the surprise is going to be that there will be no surprise? 
Hence the idea that he’ll crash and burn is wishful thinking.
Except its very unlikely Trump will be “blown out of the water”. Not to mention that Trump has survived worse before-whenever he made a controversial statement or when Ben Carson began to outpoll briefly back in October or so, Trump talked himself out of it while denouncing the media. Trump’s supporters could care less about the media narrative-indeed if there’s negative media narrative, it’ll only strengthen him.
Except Cruz and Trump, despite some overlap, appeals to different types of voters. Cruz appeals to the ideological Tea Partiers and evangelicals, Trump to lower-middle and working-class types who are more populist then ideologically Tea Partier. Not to mention that the Establishment vote won’t coalesce until at least after New Hampshire which is when every one of the quartet will be making their last stand.
That is why most polls are polling likely Republican voters-ie not true independents and they have Trump not just somewhat ahead, but ahead by 10 or more points. Indeed Sanders and Trump may feed off of each other-the sort of independents who’d vote for Sanders are those who are obsessed with ‘respectability’ and thus wouldn’t vote for Trump if they voted in the GOP primary.
And that is why I strongly support Donald Trump for Republican nominee.
I have no “wishful thinking” involved. Again, my best guess is that a Trump nomination would be great for the Democratic party and lead to significant downticket gains. I just think it is more likely that come caucus day that he will be blown out of the water than you do. Those “likely voters” now stating support for those candidates polling 5% and under, a total of 15 to 17%? Come caucus day they tend to break for one of the top three or four. (Look up RCPs polls and actual results for Iowa and NH GOP caucus and primary in 2012 if you don’t believe me.) And I do not think they will be breaking for Trump. But we’ll see.
No the overlap between Trump and Cruz supporters is far from absolute. But someone who is supporting Trump is more likely to move to Cruz than say Rubio if they for whatever reason drop Trump.
As far as what the polls show regarding those not true independents - in NH the latest ARG poll broke it down. Among declared Republicans Trump comes in tied for second in NH. Rubio at 16% and Trump tied with Kasich at 15%. It’s his strength with undeclareds that puts him on top, in that poll totals together to 21% to Rubio’s 15% and Kasich’s 13%. That said among those who claim that they are “definitely” going to vote in the GOP primary he leads … but narrowly: 19% to 15% for both Rubio and Kasich and another 13% for Christie. Cruz down at 10%. Also of note in that poll he overwhelmingly leads in being the candidate that the most “would never vote for in the primary” at 57% with only 37% (the least of all the contenders) willing to “consider voting for in the primary.” Alternatively 74% would consider voting for Cruz in the primary and 83% would consider voting for Rubio.
I am not so sure that independents for Sanders are all so obsessed with “respectability” as much as they are impressed with those who they believe believes what they are saying whether it is popular or not and is not part of what they think of as the Washington insider elite. He also channels their anger but directs not at immigrants and Muslims but at Wall Street and those too cozy with those interests.
Somebody rented a skywriting plane and flew over the Rose Parade writing “Donald Trump is Disgusting”.
Exactly-my predictions are based on current polls and the evidence of the past few months.
Those primaries and caucuses occurred in a context where fewer candidates were running and where there was a definite candidate in each camp (ie the Establishment, Christian Right, Libertarians). Here you have candidates with a certain minimal base of support owing to previous contests (Huckabee and Santorum), a divided Establishment, and of course Rand Paul’s core libertarian support.
And conversely someone dropping Cruz is more likely to move to Trump.
ARG is literally a garbage poll that makes the 1936 Literary Digest poll look accurate, so there is nothing to discuss here (Kasich at 13% LOL).
While this pains me to say as a Sanders supporter, its clear Sanders has failed to gain any significant traction among working-class voters so it seems to be that there’ll be little chance of overlap between the Sanders and Trump coalitions as much as wish it were otherwise.
There were 7 still in the running at the time of the 2012 Iowa caucuses, and 5 who were consistently running 10% or higher. There are more still in the race this time but only 3 to 4 who hit that 10% mark. (Carson is dropping under.) For NH pretty much the same. Top three in both include Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. (Christie with Kasich coming up behind is 4 on polling aggregate in NH.)
Again, the tendency seems to be for those supporting those not in the top three to move over to one of the top three on voting day.
You do come off like Trump, trash talking a poll you don’t agree with you know. 
Their results are not far off from the others, a bit higher (not tremendously so) for Kasich and slightly lower for Trump, but mostly in the pack. Neither very bottom or top on 538’s historic ratings. I’d be more suspicious of the YouGov internet only poll. But of course I am not so confident of any polls lately. Fewer and fewer answer the calls and that biases the pot in ways that are difficult to correct for or to even understand the directionality of.
Yeah. Any ideas on who did that? Pretty elaborate. Took five planes to do it!
Never mind. Found it. Rubio supporter, of course.
Man, that there is some goddam skywriting!
I puff did it, and I didn’t need no puff airplanes. 
Everybody thinks going to the bathroom is disgusting (that’s why the privacy-walls and -stalls). But most of us never have occasion to mention that.
“Surrender, Dorothy”