Trump should fail, because he’s an ignorant asshole, and we shouldn’t elect an ignorant asshole as the most powerful person on Earth.
However, the GOP voter has, over-represented in its ranks a coalition people who think ignorance is laudable, and who mistake being an asshole for moral strength.
So in a sane world, Hillary would smack Trump away like a suit stuffed with straw. But the GOP’s concerted efforts for the last few decades have built a country that is less sane that it used to be. Hillary will likely win, but the GOP voter is just crazy and ignorant enough to worry about.
Some are whistling; some are making sensible extrapolations from history.
The big wildcard IMO is that in recent history barely 1/2 of the people who could vote actually do vote. So for every conventional sorta-predictable historically familiar voter there’s another potential voter lurking somewhere in the dark. What are they thinking? Who is trying to mobilize them for what outcome and with what effectiveness? Are they apathetic as usual or mad as hell and not going to take it any more?
IMO it’s easy and relatively safe to predict a solid Clinton popular vote & EC victory over Trump when looking only at the traditional voters. And assuming Trump’s message doesn’t change between now & Nov.
Anyone who confidently says they know what the others will do is misguided or lying. Those other 120 million low-information non-voting-but-eligible Americans are the folks who give me pause. Serious pause.
Trump is unprecedented in American modern times so anyone who say that they know for sure is speaking out of some orifice other than mouth.
IF he gets the non-college educated White out to vote much more than they usually do and much more for him, without losing just about as many of the college educated White voters, then he can win. Maintaining Obama level Black turn out and share and whether or not the Hispanic vote actually comes out on election also factors in.
The range goes from a fairly narrow Trump win to a McGovern level loss with even the House flipping in the deal. The fact that half of all Americans have below average IQ should always give one pause.
Sorry, but I think you guys are pretty badly missing the point. If Trump’s nomination is a surefire guarantee of a Clinton win in November, why are most of the board’s posters simultaneously wringing their hands over Trump’s success so far? One would think that if Trump’s candidacy is so far out and ridiculous and has no chance of winning that the board’s liberals/Democrats would be cheering it on.
On the other hand, if the consensus is that he may well win, no matter how scurrilous or dumb the factors may be that put him there, then how about we drop the pretense and treat his candidacy as the genuine threat to Hillary and to liberal/Democratic politics that it is?
As it is the board seems rather schizophrenic on the issue, simultaneously laughing at Trump and boasting of a surefire Democrat victory come November while quaking in its boots at the same time over Trump’s increasing support and what is perceived as a very real possibility that he will win in November.
You know, “the board” isn’t one person. It’s on you to show that the same actual people are saying both those things.
Furthermore, I can be 75% sure that Hillary will win at a walk, and even hopeful this means the democrats take over the Senate and still be anxious that being the nominee is too close for comfort–that it’s a risk I’d rather not have my country take.
I’d prefer a 60/40 odds for my guy vs sane guy to 85/15 odds for my guy vs crazy guy.
There’s a difference between predicting what a Trump presidency would be like and fearing that it would happen.
I fear what would happen if Trump were to become President, much as I would fear if a nuclear weapon were detonated in the middle of NYC. That doesn’t mean I think it will happen.
It’s like nuclear power. It’s very very likely nothing bad is gonna happen, but you worry.
Trump’s banal stupidity and ignorant rage is a danger to the world. And the fact that the GOP base is choosing him, shows to what extent the GOP is driven by anger and ignorance.
As somebody else pointed out awhile ago in another thread, there is a concept in game theory called minimax. Wherein the smart play is to minimize the chance of the maximum possible catastrophe.
As a Thoughtful Progressive Capitalist I would dearly love to see the current GOP be blown up and the vNext GOP be reborn with both a brain and a heart this time.
But I’m not willing to egg on Trump to be the guy who catalyzes that GOP reincarnation because I’m not confident the whole US will not A) Elect Trump and B) Not double down on the ignorance by electing somebody even worse next time around.
There is also the concern over Trump as a symptom and trying to comprehend both exactly the nature of the underlying disease and its best treatment for long term health.
It’s basing it’s assessment that Trump is one of the greatest potential threats to the world economy on a long chain of contingencies: Trump being elected, trump actually prioritizing the same things in office that he featured during the first half of his campaign to win the GOP nomination, his ability to actual manifest these desires in the real world, the global economy reacting in the way the piece predicts, and of course, the assumption that whatever economic avalanche triggered by a Trump presidency wouldn’t have happened otherwise. A global economy fragile enough to be destroyed by one election might be doomed to tumble regardless of whether Trump wins.