Like the ancient Spartans, I will respond with one word from your above analysis.
“If”
Nope - because if he admitted to the GOP PTB that he wanted out and needed their help, while they would certainly be glad to oblige him they would effectively own him for at least the rest of the election cycle, and Trump isn’t the type of man to admit weakness or ask for help. He’d rather crash and burn than admit defeat.
It seems like he could very well win the nomination, unless something crazy happens with the conventions, but it seems unlikely he’ll win the general, looking at how polling goes. He has a 70% unfavorable rating among all women, and there’s a chart on that link that shows his favorability ratings have gone done with all people. More Latinos are seeking citizenship this year so that they can vote against Trump. Anything could still happen, but I’m not going to get too nervous about Trump winning.
Well it’s also funny since he also said in that same town hall that education should be up to the states, not the federal government, and how the government can lead on healthcare, but it be done privately, and how Obamacare is a disaster, but he’ll have something better.
But he also has the thinnest skin in the world. He doesn’t demand that they dynamite the golf greens at his resort because everyone there knows not to insult him. But Megyn Kelly isn’t polite enough to him at a debate and he obsesses over it for months. And Spy Magazine made fun of his small hands years ago and he won’t let that go. If a major British politician or media source was making fun of President Trump I don’t think he would nuke London, but he could definitely harm our relationship with the Brits. And any country that we have a more tenuous relationship with could have the relationship completely destroyed if someone insults Trump and he isn’t able to handle it.
If Trump is elected, it’s not like the country will immediately turn into Idiocracy or Fury Road. But it will be like how W. Bush hurt our standing in the world, just even more so. Whoever takes over for Trump will have even more rebuilding to do than Obama did.
Interesting analysis of Trump’s prospects. I think this was written before Wisconsin started tipping more heavily toward Cruz but I really can’t argue with his conclusions. I think Trump will be within 20 votes of the magic number, but don’t know if he’ll be above or below it.
What do you base that on?
Eh, no worries.
The man is bleeding face. Just when you think he can’t possibly make a more fatally ignorant statement, he tops himself. It seems like every day he comes up with a new way to make himself look bad. Yesterday he managed to bring out both sides to denounce him, which could very well prove to be the beginning of the end for him.
He could find some excuse if he really wanted. He’s the Eight-Year-Old Who Would Be King.
Does it really matter whether Trump gets 51% of the delegates, or just 49%? In the former case, the GOP could avert a Trumping with faithless delegates or a credentials vote—remember many of the delegates “commited” to Trump will actually be Trump haters and eager to vote anti-Trump in anything except the actual 1st rollcall for the nomination. But the GOP probably won’t castrate the Trump for fear of angering its base.
If Trump gets just 49% but with Cruz in a distant 2nd, there will be a wide perception that Trump deserves the nomination. Again, if the Establishment doesn’t bend over and submit to Trumping they will anger their base and lose the big enthusiasm of Trumpists for Congressional races.
After all this GOP psychodrama, I assume the Democrat will be a shoo-in for the White House no matter who the GOP runs. But my predictions have already been proven ignorant—what does Nate Silver say?
Of course there’s another possibility. My belief that Trump never wanted to win has been borne out by a top Trump aide who now says the same thing. Trump doesn’t relish the nomination—a grueling ordeal with no endgame but humiliation—and wants the nomination stolen from him so he can put on a whining show.
Whatever happens, the good news is GOP will be thoroughly humiliated in 2016. Bad news is that the average American voter has the attention span of a tapeworm and by 2018 will once again be in blitheful orgy with the most insane candidates they can dredge up.
There will be like 10 or a hundred times the outrage if the party and delegates violate the perceived rules to take the nomination away from Trump. In theory, 51% means he wins, but 49% means there’s a second ballot and all delegates are freed from their prior “obligation” to vote for who they were pledged to on the first.
I am reminded of this scene:
[QUOTE=Kim Possible, “Number One”]
Kim: Bonnie, you’re the captain now. You do realize the hard work’s just beginning…?
Bonnie: You’re kidding, right?
Kim: You know, suddenly I couldn’t be happier for you.
Ron: Captain Bonnie.
Bonnie: I’ve gotta keep working hard?! This is so unfair!
Ron: You count on the fact she’ll only last a month?
Kim: I give her two weeks, tops.
[/QUOTE]
That’s an even smaller margin for Hillary than I thought.
Even if the GOP delegates are released from their obligation after the first ballot, I presume most if not all of the Trump delegates are true believers who will stick with him for a long, long time - and quite possibly follow him if the nomination is “stolen” from him and he bolts and runs as a third-party candidate. Although I kind of think Trump started his campaign as a lark, by now he can probably almost taste the nomination, his ego is on the line, he’s getting huge free publicity, and I suspect he’ll keep going, one way or another, through November.
This makes me think of Groucho in “Duck Soup.”
“Upstart? Of course you know, this means war!”
Except that Rufus T. Firefly had better foreign policy advisers than Trump.
I would presume the opposite – that the delegates are by and large party loyalists who will drop Trump as soon as they can and converge over whoever the party regulars throw into the ring.
But I’m no expert on the makeup of Republicans.
The margin today is probably best case. If Trump loses he is not going to shut up, and the media will give him plenty of coverage. Even if he doesn’t run a third party campaign he’ll be attacking, try to force whoever does get picked to support his policy of the day. Not to mention the chaos at the convention which will get replayed over and over.
If he does win the nomination the Establishment will jump ship, including Congressional candidates. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he attacks Republican candidates who repudiate him.
I’m looking for a brokered convention - it would be fun in the demolition derby sense.
Trump vows to appoint Supreme Court justices who will investigate Hillary Clinton’s emails.
Holy fuck but he’s ignorant.
Supreme Court Justice by day, Private Dick by night. I’ll bet he wears a fedora too.
It was even lower in the past months, but very consistent in showing Clinton ahead of Trump. Hillary was on the 3-5% ahead of Trump territory for ages, but it only has been by 10 in the last month. Because this has been a recent thing I think that the ones that have been harping about “what Trump is doing works” are wrong.
While one could think that 10% is a small margin, consider that Obama was ahead of Romney by 3% on average in 2012.
I was thinking a deerstalker. And carrying a huge magnifying glass.