Na, I think he will claim the other side cheated in some way, and that he was just too moral to sink to their level.
I agree with your logic, but the Dems fail that test too. As Dayen’s article points out, they have terrible candidates in D+1 and R+1 districts in New Jersey - exactly the sort of districts that you say (and I agree) the party should focus much more resources in. And districts at the R+2 level - the sort of district that would be tough sledding in a midterm year, but quite within reach in a Presidential year - were going begging for candidates.
However, in districts that are mostly beyond hope of winning, I think the Dems need to have someone running wherever possible, just to show the flag, and make sure that they don’t have nobody at all speaking up for their side. No, they won’t be able to find good candidates for a typical R+10 district, but they should have somebody running in such districts.
I think the Democratic Party could also provide some basic services to newbie candidates in such districts: they could hold a candidate training camp, so to speak, during the summer, and perhaps have a centralized back-office operation for those candidates with limited resources, so that Dem HQ could handle the money and bookkeeping for several dozen such candidates: the party should do everything it can to make sure new candidates don’t have to learn a whole bunch of reinventing-the-wheel stuff, but can just concentrate on being a candidate, and (unfortunately but inevitably) raising money.
No, the Dems had no reason last summer to think that they’d have a potential landslide this year. But ISTM that they didn’t even do the right things to prepare for taking advantage of a 51-48 win at the top of the ticket, which has left them in a much bigger hole than they should be in when it comes to taking advantage of a landslide.
Also, as things changed, they don’t seem to have reacted very rapidly. By the beginning of December, the GOP contest was already narrowing down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, and two of those guys were going to be a huge opportunity. I know I’ve been asking for months why everyone’s assuming the House is out of reach.
So this was one thing that I wondered. What is the latest point at which the Republicans could conceivably switch candidates if Trump has a press conference revealing that his candidacy was all a version of the third wave experiment. I think that even if he has the majority of delegates pledged to him they can vote to suspend the rules at the start of the convention to switch candidates, but what if he waits to the end, or the day after the convention. Who would have the authority to decide that a different candidate should represent the Republicans?
Hmm. I guess I see that as a subset. “I could have won, if I had decided it was worth it to win.”
Interesting article: Donald Trump Clears the Air With Republican Leaders
I find it funny that Priebus basically has to ask Trump to please stop trashing them, and also that despite Trump often saying that he’ll hire the best people, and it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t know an issue he’ll hire the best advisers to help him, he doesn’t have the best people working on his campaign to get the delegates.
Good job of openly blaming the staff, Donald. Keep those future tell-all books coming!
I expect the first one to appear by Christmas… unless, of course, he wins and then suspends the First Amendment for “… being lame, so lame. What a loser Amendment.”
I have somehow become the resident RNC parliamentarian around here:
I’ve never been a fan of underestimating one’s opposition. That’s an easy way to die by ambush.
But years ago I was locked in a tussle with another corporate group. Some of our team kept insisting the other side was doing elaborate schemes & conspiracies.
My comment: “Those fools can’t plan, let alone plot.”
Turns out I was right in that case. Not sure exactly what applicability it has to Rs or Ds right now, but it’s a hell of a one-liner that fits many situations.
I agree with asahi, but I’d make the argument a little differently. Over at 538, they note that Trump’s demographic projections put him at the knife-edge of getting sufficient delegates to win the first ballot. So he’s not actually in that great of a position.
Add to that the fact that part of his support is tied up in being a winner. If he starts to underperform, that part of the vote goes away. Which causes more underperformance.
Finally, the media operates on expectations. If Trump falls 200 delegates short of the magic number, that objectively strong performance can be spun as a disaster for him.
The one complication I see is that Cruz is unacceptable to the party elite as well. And Kasich may not win 8 states. So… we actually can’t rule out a Trump victory in a contested nomination. He’s a good person to person sales guy who may be able to sell key members of the establishment that he would be better for them than Cruz. OTthirdH, my instincts say that in Trump nirvana he would be king-maker rather than President. He could team up with Rove and choose a fresh face to head the party.
Carl Icahn. You heard it here first.
That’s a joke.
But Measure, that means you don’t agree with asahi. He is saying Trump is done finished, not on the knifes edge. Asahi wonders if Trump will be so demolished by convention time if he’ll even be a factor.
He may very well not need to, if “they” decide to clutch for Kasich, or, for that matter, the “fresh new face” that Karl Rove suggests. My understanding is that they vote on the rules before the real business starts. The Rules Committee makes up a proposal, and the convention votes on it. There are no rules until this happens. What was the rule is poof! gone.
I worked in a food coop collective, and thought that our meetings were chaotic. I have revised that opinion. Buncha radical hippies are the very model of calm and reasoned discourse. By comparison, of course.
A name too, or just a face?
I wonder who that fresh new face might be?
We’ll call him Boe.
McKay. Bill McKay.
Well, the RNC delegates just need to smoke some of what you guys (presumably) smoked. It couldn’t hurt, anyway.
Yes, bingo.
Yup, this too.
Yup, this is the tune Jesse Ventura has sung for years. He could have been president if he had decided to run, says Jesse.
To me, this campaign is turning into “Being There”, except that Chauncey Garndner is a loudmouth who is TOO aware of television.
OK, the sky has officially fallen.
[http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/02/politics/donald-trump-heidi-cruz-tweet/index.html](The Donald admits to mistakes.)
Could he possibly be listening to someone other than himself for once? Maybe his kids held an intervention.
Or maybe he just realized that he’s made too many stupid statements recently.