Yes, this is clearly the turning point in politicians keeping campaign promises. Before now, they were dispensable. Now they are honor bound to the RNC to support Trump if he wins the nomination, or else something!!!
“Honor bound”. That’s like a politician who cannot take a hugely advantageous position because it conflicts with his personal sense of honor? Famously successful politicians of that type include Humbert C. Throckmorton, Phineas Chessewitt, and Horace Pemberton.
Pundits said that Trump would top out at ~25%, and now he’s at 30%. It’s easy for them to say that he’s really going to top out at 30%, but if polls a few weeks down the road have him in the low to mid 30s, what are they going to say then, and why should anyone believe them?
And it’s easy to say it’s all about publicity and name recognition, but among Republicans, I’m sure Jeb’s name recognition is pretty high, and he’s been in single digits in the last three polls, trailing Trump by an average of 21 points.
I think the real problem for Jeb - and probably Walker and Rubio as well, though maybe to a lesser degree - is that Trump has given the GOP base the self-recognition of how deeply dissatisfied they are with the traditional GOP establishment-type candidates. It’s an imperfect analogy (aren’t they all?), but once you admit to yourself that you’re really unhappy in a relationship, the only thing to do is break it off.
Not that I’m sure what’ll happen as a result. Trump could win the nomination, though I still think that’s a longshot. Or as he fades, Cruz could pick up most of his supporters, and go into the convention with a plurality but probably not a majority. Or the anti-establishment vote could fracture among Trump, Cruz, and Carson, while the establishment vote eventually coalesces around, say, Rubio, which could result in a win for the establishment candidate, or a multi-ballot convention.
One thing I do think is that if an establishment candidate wins, he’d probably have to choose Ted Cruz or someone like him as his veep to keep the base on board. Otherwise the base would practically be begging Trump to do a third-party run.
But he can’t. He signed that agreement, and his personal sense of honor would not permit it.
Me? Tequila and bongwater, want some?
Note that my cite said “vow support for Trump if he wins the nomination”. Not “bound to support Trump if he wins the nomination”.
Trump says that his time in military school gave him more military training than most military recruits:
Okay, I went to military school for three years. And you do get some military training. But not much in the way of combat training, nor are you ever put in danger, which is kind of a big difference between ROTC and actual military service. What JROTC does is it prepares you to enter the military so that you can adjust better than most raw recruits. You learn how to make a bed, wear a uniform, march, etc. There’s a teensy bit of combat training, maybe some martial arts, definitely some shooting, and if you’re lucky, maybe even some maneuvers. But it’s just not the Army. It’s like comparing D&D to actually fighting goblins.
How full of himself is Trump to think he’s a military guy now because he can make his bed and shine his shoes?
So, its one of them “non-binding” vows?
Yep, non-binding…kinda like them ‘gonna-post-bills-online-48 hours-before-signing-them-if-you-like-your-doctor-you-can-keep-your-doctor’ vows.
Very? extremely? I don’t think there is a word for how full of himself Trump is.
Which makes me wonder about something -
In general, in the last 12-16 years there seems to have been a slump in the quality of presidential candidates and politicians in general, looking at the likes of Palin, and some of the current clowns in congress - could it be that the Trump candidacy is the Reagan candidacy of our era? Wasn’t he panned as a frivolous movie star at the time?
And since then, haven’t there been some governors whose claim to fame is fame (Jessie Ventura, Arnie?)
Yes, and he remained a frivolous movie star throughout his political career.
I was in marching band, learned how to shoot a gun, know how to make a bed, and played Mortal Kombat. Does that count Mr Trump?
South Carolina Republican Primary Poll:
Trump: 37%
Carson: 21%
All others in small single digits.
What was that about Trump’s “ceiling” again?
So, do you support Trump, or just sticking your thumb in our eye? Which is more important, how much you love your country or how much you hate us?
Hey, I don’t support Trump, but I’m enjoying the hell out of his rise to the top of the GOP heap. So he’s leading by a mile nationwide, and he’s leading in Iowa, NH, and SC, with only Carson (who’s got more batshit in his belfry than any three of his rivals put together) within striking distance in any of those states.
Whatever happens to Trump’s candidacy, this primary season has exposed the GOP as a tribe rather than a political party. Whatever weak links tied the GOP to actual policy ideas are broken forever, and it’s just ‘our tribe v. all those bad tribes’ - liberals, blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, Chinese, etc.
I think you’re relying on a caricature of the party base there, but even if you’re right, a majority can still be cobbled together with that kind of message. And keep in mind that predictions of demographic doom are based on Republicans letting that happen. Such demographic changes can be reversed by public policy to some extent.
Entirely. Trump is entirely full of himself, so that there is no room for anything else. And if he got more room he would just stuff more of himself in there.
New national poll from CNN: Trump 32%, Carson 19%, everyone else in single digits.
As Terr said, what about that ceiling again?
And my favorite index, the sum of the Establishment candidates’ support, Bush+Rubio+Walker+Kasich+Christie, is down to 21%. Hell, if we assume the undecided 7% are making up their minds which Establishment candidate they want, that still only gives them 28%.
Oh, what the hey, we’ll toss in Sen. Huckleberry J. Butchmeup’s 1% (first time in the last 6 polls that he’s been >0%), and that brings the Establishment crew up to 29%.
Meanwhile, Trump and Carson have 51% between them. Toss in Cruz and Fiorina, and the Outsiders are at 61%, and running up the score.
Other indices: in addition to being the first choice of 32% of Pubbies, Trump’s the second choice of another 18%. He’s still got some upside. Meanwhile, Bush is the first choice of 9%, and the second choice of another 10%. And he’s the only Establishment candidate whose first and second choice numbers sum to >10%. Also, Trump’s support doesn’t seem to have any income or gender gap anymore.
Damn, I’ve been following politics since Goldwater, and I’ve never seen a year like this one. But like I said, I’m enjoying the hell out of it. Lawn chair? Check. Cooler? Check. Snacks? Check. Sunscreen? Yep.
Forgot to link to the poll.
A couple more things from it - look at question 27b: they ask Pubbies if they’d be "enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset if certain candidates* were the Republican nominee. As you might guess, Trump and Carson get the most enthusiasm, but the kicker is that Bush leads both the ‘upset’ and ‘dissatisfied’ categories, with 21% and 26%, respectively.
The other thing is about the GOP itself. When you scroll down to the end and look at the breakdowns of responses by sex, age, region, etc., they don’t have enough respondents in the following categories to make estimates: nonwhite (no surprise), under 50, Northeast, Midwest, West, no college, urban, and ‘oppose Tea Party.’
They can do estimates for 50-64 and 65+, but not under-50 taken as a single group! They can do estimates for the South, but not for the other three regions. And they can do estimates for Pubbies who are pro-TeaParty, and for Pubbies who are neutral about the Tea Party, but there aren’t enough anti-TP Pubbies to base estimates on.
*They just ask this about Trump, Carson, Cruz, Bush, Rubio, and Walker. They must figure, as I do, that the rest of the field really doesn’t count anymore.
That’s the important part right there. That refutes all that crap about “he only has 32% of the huge field, once some drop out he’s toast”.
He does have to be careful not to punch Carson too hard. He already started on that 
I don’t think he can help himself.
I was driving today in the morning and the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the “pundits” on the radio is hilarious.
Also: Trump’s support higher among independents than among Republicans. He’s the only Republican candidate that has that. Which is kinda important for the general election.