Well I for one encourage Terr in this thinking, that voting is pointless, and support any efforts on his part to encourage as may others of his political ilk as possible to do likewise. 
I saw that poll and it is causing me to rethink my dismissal of the Trump candidacy. My thinking was that Trump was simply consolidating the angry nutball vote, while the more rational majority of the GOP was being splintered among 10 different alternatives, and that once the rational side got their act together an united behind one or two candidates Trump would be toast.
However seeing that more than 50% of the Republican voters are lining up behind one of two nutballs, it is becoming clear that the semi-rational majority I assumed existed in the GOP is in actuality a minority. That will teach me once again the cold hard lesson that it is not possible to over estimate the incompetence of the average republican voter
Or the reasonable belief that voting and talking about voting can influence others to vote, which can have a non-negligible chance at helping the preferred candidate win. And even a negligible chance is a non-zero chance – I’m perfectly willing to spend a very small amount of time if it means a non-zero increase to the chances my preferred candidate will win. Non-zero is better than zero.
Great president, or the greatest president?
Amirite?!
Ps. Colbert 2016!!
Yes, but the primaries aren’t just one election where the leader is the most likely to get the most votes and win. What actually happens is that first we have Iowa, where only the most dedicated partisans spend half the day caucusing. Trump is leading among voters who don’t usually vote. It’s possible that Trump will bring new voters. It’s also possible Trump’s voters simply won’t be there, especially in Iowa. Carson, on the other hand, has been building up support in Iowa the old fashioned way. His numbers are probably more solid in Iowa. If the caucuses were held today, I think he’d beat Trump.
But as establishment candidates drop out, the 47% who prefer an establishment type will start to rally around one guy. This will probably occur after Iowa and NH, which means that we should see by then only 2-3 establishment candidates vs. 3 outsiders.
Seriously? I would say almost NO ONE is voting for Trump for warm&fuzzies. They’re voting for Trump because Trump gives voice to their anger and their fear. Trump is the angry man leaning out the window and screaming, “We’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore!”
You’re ignoring his long business and entertainment career. That was built on charisma, and not on anger/fear.
I hate to rain on the Trump parade but- oh I take that back, I LOVE to rain on the Trump parade- you can’t escape mathematics. In 2012, Obama beat Romney 51-47 among all voters and 71-27 among Hispanics.
This year, Clinton leads Trump 53-40 overall and 69-22 among Latinos. Biden does even better, leading Trump 56-38 overall and 71-20 among Latinos.
There simply is no way that Trump could beat either Hillary or Biden, not when your campaign is based on bigotry against Latinos and you need some of their votes to win.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump run essentially evenly among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup for president in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, testament to the strength of party loyalty as well as to Trump’s anti-establishment profile and anti-immigration views.
**The hypothetical contest stands at 46-43 percent, Clinton-Trump, a gap that’s within the survey’s margin of sampling error. **
Note: registered voters. You know, those that actually can vote.
To add a few more:
Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 48% to 48% - within margin of error
Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 46% to 44% - within margin of error
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf
Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 45% to 41% - within margin of error
PLEASE don’t nominate Trump, Br’er Fox! We’re afraid to run against him!
Oh, we’re just getting started. U.S. ‘a dumping ground’ for the world.
Business? He’s famous for bankruptcies.
Entertainment? He’s been a freak on Reality TV.
Now he’s catching the attention of starving old white guys…
A “freak show” isn’t “charisma”.
The reason people watched Trump is to watch the monkey with the toupee throw tantrums, mangle syntax, use incorrect words that he clearly didn’t understand and have melt downs. It’s like watching a someone poke a retarded chimp with a stick 'till it gets mad and flings poo. Which, I suspect, is at least part of his popularity now.
That’s how it works on the Dem side. On the GOP side, you come in, listen to a bit of speechifying, then vote and leave.
Since the Iowa GOP caucuses don’t work the way you think they do, I don’t see why Trump can’t bring in new voters there.
But even if Carson beats Trump in Iowa, that doesn’t really matter that much, as long as Trump and Carson both thump the Establishment candidates, (a) depriving them of one of the few chances to win an early primary, and (b) demonstrating their impotence and lack of appeal to a big chunk of GOP voters.
This makes sense to me, because as I see it, we’re already down to 5-6 candidates that can actually affect the race anymore: Trump, Carson, and Cruz on the ‘outsider’ side, and Bush, Rubio, and possibly Kasich on the ‘establishment’ side. Everyone else is pretty much window dressing at this point.
The thing is, the winnowing is a double-edged sword, because people get a closer look at the survivors. Trump’s already been in the glare of the spotlight for months, so that closer look isn’t going to hurt him very much. However, Bush, Rubio, and Carson aren’t going to look good when they’re seen up close and personal, and Kasich’s apostasies on Obamacare and gay marriage will likely limit him.
“I’m gonna hold my nose and vote for X” works OK in the general election, but not so well in the primaries.
I’ve got a hunch that this is a Goldwater sort of year, and Bush and Kasich are going to be its Rockefeller and Scranton, respectively.
"Send me your tired, your poor
"Your huddled masses yearning to breath free
“The wretched refuse from your teeming shore . . .”
Damn, I should have remembered that. Thanks.
In 1964 the public wasn’t hungry for something different. Feels more like 1992 to me.
But I think Trump’s problem is that a) too many Republicans just won’t vote for him at all, which puts a ceiling on his support. He’ll do better the more candidates are in, and b) I still don’t think he’s serious about wanting the job. He’s reportedly resisting spending money and isn’t campaigning as hard as the other hopefuls. He really is acting like his top priority is still his businesses.
If you look at polls, that number (of Republicans swearing they will never vote for him) was big to start with and has been dropping ever since, down to small numbers now.
Yes, he’s famous for bankruptcies to people who don’t know anything about business, and/or who are predisposed to dislike him to begin with. His bankruptcies involved a very small number of the overall businesses, companies and developments Trump has owned. Most people are aware of this and that’s why his bankruptcies have been a non-starter for his opponents.
Sorry, wrong again. He’s had the charisma and business success necessary to headline a show requiring someone with enough gravitas to believably pass judgement on the business acumen of the contestants. His replacement is about to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, who, while most people don’t know it, has actually made more money from his various business activities than from his movies. He’s basically a businessman who makes movies on the side. The Apprentice needs to be headed by someone with charisma and extraordinary business success in order for the premise to work, and Trump has both in spades.
Sorry, wrong again. This article shows that according to a recent CNN/ORC The Donald currently has 33% support among Republican women voters, and according to this article a recent SurveyUSA poll shows that in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Clinton, Trump carries 31% of Hispanics, 25% of blacks, and actually has the lead among Asians 41% vs. 39% for Clinton.
And don’t forget, the election is still more than a year away and so far time has been Trump’s ally and the more that time that goes by, the higher his numbers climb. (For example his support among Republican women as shown in the linked article above has increased from 20% a month ago to 33% now.) So there’s every reason to expect that his numbers among all these groups will grow even higher as time goes by and the election draws closer.
Go Trump go! Trump’s continued ascent is good news for the Democrats (in my view) for two reasons:
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He sows chaos among Republicans. I think the party establishment will do anything, including breaking or changing their rules, to prevent his nomination. This is great for the Democrats (assuming his train doesn’t slow) – either they’ll piss him off so much he’ll run third party, or they’ll have a broken party for the general election, assuming I’m right.
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I think he’ll be an incredibly weak general election candidate. Sure, it’s too early to predict things like this, and I’m not ready to make a prediction. But I’m happy to state my instincts and feelings, and these indicate to me that he’d be a gift for the Democratic candidate.