Well, since Trump has pledged not to go third-party, they’ll all line up behind the eventual nominee . . . but, Trump’s candidacy will leave behind a “broken party” in that he has shown up the fault-lines between the establishment and the base in an even sharper and more dramatic way than the fight over W’s immigration-reform package did. And the base has not pledged not to go third-party – they won’t this cycle, but there might be a schism later. And this split goes to the heart of the party’s economic policies – the bizcon establishment is still cleaving to the supply-side orthodoxy that has ruled the GOP since 1980, but Trump has proven that the Tea Party base prefers an economic-populist message that in many of its aspects could have been articulated by Bernie Sanders. And the leadership can’t ignore that forever.
I don’t think the pledge means a single thing, to Trump or to anyone else. Promises are broken all the time in politics.
No prob. I think I only became aware of it in the last cycle.
I don’t think “the public” was hungry for something different either in 1964 or now. But many Republicans clearly are. And having been old enough to follow the 1964 primary season in the newspapers and stuff, while history may not be repeating itself, it does seem to be rhyming a bit. 
I’ll second what Terr said about this.
However, I agree about (b). It’s hard to imagine that Trump really wants to be President. OTOH, he’s clearly having a great time, and will surely keep running until it stops being fun for him. What I wonder is, what’s his exit strategy if he continues to do well deep into primary season?
Here’s what I think is Trump’s ideal outcome:
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Win a slight majority (1,050, say) of the delegates awarded during the primaries, which would fall short of the 1,236 delegates needed for the nomination.
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Have the GOP establishment gang up on you to block you and choose someone else as the nominee.
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Use that to say that the GOP broke its end of the agreement, so you’re no longer bound by it, and run as an independent after all.
Maximum publicity, maximum fun, and don’t have to be President. Win-win-win.
Just watched the Jimmy Fallon interview with him and I now think Trump is by far a stronger candidate than I did before. I’m a Swedish progressive, feminist etc yada yada so it might count for something that this guy manages to somewhat charm me. Here’s my impression:
This guy believes in himself like nobody else, and is very relaxed and confident. He’s aggressive and dominant. He’s very direct, clear and inflexible. This comes off as incredibly STRONG. Basically he is a big silverback gorilla in a room fool of anxious chimps.
This is incredibly attractive traits for anyone who is primarily looking for a strong leader, he is the sort of Alpha male that will take over the tribe with sheer power and will, forcing others to submit to him. I now understand we people respond so strongly to him.
I saw an interview with Jeb! a few days earlier and the comparison is incredibly unflattering for him. Bush comes off as weak, nervous and seeking approval. Trump comes off as incredibly powerful and assertive in comparison. I have to say I don’t think the other candidates have a chance.
You can make a case that he’s constantly saying things that are outrageous or blatantly false, but unfortunately I don’t think that matters much in his case. He’s a hype man, people expect him to be over the top and aren’t listening much to the facts. They’re hearing the message “I am your leader. I will take care of you. I will make this country great. I am stronger than anyone else. I am more successful than anyone else. I will deliver results. The rest of the candidates are pussies compared to me.” That’s basically what he is communicating and he is doing it very effectively.
He’s also not stupid, he definitely has some sort of reptilian intelligence. I doubt he’s very well read, but he obviously knows what he is doing. The way he is communicating may seem rough or even barbaric to the more sensitive types (like me), but it is very effective, almost hypnotizing in a way.
Those who think he is not charismatic are quite simply wrong. He may not appeal to you, but this guy has charisma oozing off him as a result of his confidence.
True. Trump has increased his favorables in a way I never would have imagined possible.
Actually, he seems to be making all the other Republicans look good by comparison. He’s as useful a foil for us as he is for your side.
Depends on who he’s matched up against. Against the phony Clinton, his authenticity will put him over the top. Against another Democrat, probably not. Voters want authenticity, but they also want reasonableness. With Biden, Sanders, or O’Malley, they can get both.
:rolleyes: “Immediately saying whatever crazy shit pops into your head” != “authenticity.”
I do think Trump would like to be President, in the same sense that Fred Thompson wanted to be President. He’ll take it if he doesn’t have to work too hard or spend too much money. I don’t think he plans to exit if he’s got a shot at winning.
Biden’s built a pretty successful career around that concept. The difference is that the shit that pops into his head isn’t all that alarming. Which is why I said, Democrats can have both authenticity and reasonableness. There’s no reason to put an obvious phony before the public. And I don’t think it will work this time.
I think I already predicted that Hillary Clinton will not be President, but if I haven’t, let me say it now: Hillary Clinton will not be President. I don’t think Trump will be either.
IMO, the next President will be from this group:
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Martin O’Malley
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
The polls are still all skewed, aren’t they?
Are you making the argument that the polls now reflect the nominees and the winner of the PResidential election?
No, only that you’re dismissing the only data that exists - that your predictions are based on nothing more than your own hopes and dreams.
My predictions are based on the trends that I see, as well as how the events we know are coming are likely to change the race.
Don’t be Sam Wang and not see what’s coming until it comes.
How’s the Romney Administration workin’ out for ya, Chief?
Nope. Na ga ha pen. 
You misspelled ‘small.’ It’s not g-o-o-d.
‘Authenticity’ - have I already said this is 2016’s version of ‘which candidate would you like to have a beer with’?
If it’s Trump v. Clinton, nobody’s gonna care about ‘authenticity’ when it’s clear that exactly one of the two actually knows what she’s talking about, while the other is nothing more or less than a master bullshitter who would be even more over his head as President than Shrubby was.
I like your list, but to be more accurate, delete everyone below Biden and insert Hillary. That’s it: Hillary or Joe. Your choice.
I don’t think so, but we’ll just disagree here.
I also strongly disagree with this analysis, but whatever. I think history has shown us that authenticity is remarkably unimportant (not that I think Trump is particularly “authentic”, considering how many times his positions have changed).
This is a looney-tunes early prediction, but whatever. No idea why you’d want to put yourself on the line this early to count out the Democratic front-runner who’s still polling in the lead over all her rivals of either party. Nate Silver is shaking his finger at you.
Also, Carson is not more likely to be president than Hillary Clinton. If you really think this is so then send me your drugs.
Excellent post and QFT. Probably the best post in any of the Trump threads.
I note that it hasn’t drawn much in the way of response, mostly I imagine because very few here want to acknowledge or even recognize its truths, and secondarily because as a 'Swedish progressive" (:)) most here are loathe to attack you, as would have most certainly been the case had one of the board’s conservatives said the same thing.
But you’ve hit the nail on the head in many significant ways which explain much of what many people don’t realize when they see Trump as some sort of clown or an idiot spouting off whatever comes into his head and proposing nonsensical solutions that aren’t workable on their face.
It’s nice to see somebody here gets it.