What’s sad and frightening is that, 10 years ago, this would seem absurd even as a fear, and now it’s not.
I couldn’t find a super-reliable source for the Manhattan jury conviction rate, but the New York Post says it is 76 percent:
So I predicted guilty.
If I am wrong, don’t blame me, blame the NY Post.
One statistic I would like to see. if my prediction pans out: What is the average length, in Manhattan, from a felony conviction to sentencing?
Would we really put it past someone to think that if they vote not guilty, Trump will make them Secretary of the Interior if the 2024 election isn’t stolen from him?
I’m not so sure about that. I think if he’s found guilty on any of them, he will be found guilty on all of them.
This case hinges on the notion that everyone knew what Trumped wanted done, even if a lot of the instructions were never written down or explicitly talked about. If you believe that fundamental point, then having his kids sign a few checks is just another part of that. “Hey son, put yourself in as another layer insulating me from obviously being involved, will ya?” If Trump coordinated all the other arms-length aspects of this crime, why not this part as well?
The thread title is misleading; the trial is not ended.
i’m just reckoning on there being a few people who would see a difference in them. his kids were not shown to be in the conspiracy.
weissman’s signature is with the younger trumps, so that could bend it back to guilty as weissman had a big part in the scheme.
IANAL, but I’m pretty sure that’s completely wrong.
Trump is accused of 34 counts that would have been misdemeanors beyond the statute of limitations, except that the alleged falsified records were in committing or covering up another crime, which involves inappropriate campaign contributions or tax fraud. The other crime elevates the 34 counts to felonies. The other crime itself is not actually being tried here, and will not have a separate verdict.
So it’s entirely possible that the 34 felony counts will be split between Guilty and Not Guilty (and hung? can some counts be hung while others are unanimous?). But it’s not possible for this jury to return a verdict on “the felony charge of intent to commit election fraud.”
I predict justice. Josh Marshall at TPM:
Before we get a verdict, it’s important to recognize that this is justice, regardless of whatever the verdict is. …Both sides were allowed to make their case before a judge who did a good job of controlling the process. Now it’s in the hands of a jury.
I am certainly hoping for a conviction, mostly because the evidence is overwhelming and irrefutable. I’ve always thought this was essentially a jury nullification case. Trump’s only hope for an acquittal is for the jury to essentially say: we’ve heard what you say the law is and we’ve heard the evidence but we just don’t think this is a crime. More realistically, I think Trump’s real hope is a hung jury. Regardless, this is our system. Donald Trump deserves to have his fate in the hands of a jury. And now he does.
FTR, there are 3 other crimes. Kevin Drum:
- Violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act, otherwise known as FECA
- Falsification of other business records
- Violations of tax laws
Merchan then explained that different jurors can have different opinions about which of those three laws Trump intended to break. All that matters is that all 12 jurors agree about Trump’s intent to violate at least one of them. They don’t have to be unanimous about which one.
Well, you can just take a Sharpie and write it in on the screen of your device. It’s an option now!
I’m predicting Not Guilty, but with very little confidence. Like 26% Not Guilty, 25% Guilty on some counts, 25% Hung, 24% Guilty on all counts.
I think it’s beyond dispute that Trump approved the payoff to Daniels. And damn certain that Trump approved reimbursing Cohen.
But I can see some jurors being less certain that Trump caused the records to be categorized as “legal expenses.” It seems clear that Cohen turned in his bank statement for reimbursement, and Weisselberg’s handwritten calculation accounts for Cohen being repaid as taxable income rather than as a simple reimbursement. There may be room for reasonable doubt that Trump was aware that having a lawyer pay for an NDA is not a “legal expense.”
Whoa, whoa, whoa – I’m not the President!
YET.
That is worrisome, but there is one chance in three that this juror is an alternate. He may feel pro-defense now, but is he confident enough to hold those views in front of 11 other jurors who are arguing why he’s wrong, and are becoming increasingly frustrated with the fact that he is the only reason they can’t go back to their lives and put the whole sordid thing behind them.
This is a man who can’t sleep if he’s not getting over on something “ His Taxes, Employees, contractors & wife’s “ The idea of being taxed kills this man!
They don’t have to be in on it. They only have signing authority because he gave it to them. So long as Trump knew they would sign the checks, he’s still on the hook for faking the records.
I voted not guilty, on all counts my prediction.
Hope I’m fucking wroonnnnng!
I will also predict the verdicts come tomorrow after lunch. 
Interesting, so you think the charges are that clearly and facially unproven or that reasonable doubt is extremely strong? Not reading a lot out there that agrees.
I think hung jury. There’s at least one juror who is worried about the health and welfare of their family. Trump discloses everything and the juror wouldn’t remain anonymous if they voted guilty.
Cohen’s value as a star witness was undermined by more admissions of lies and theft.
Extrapolating his actions into a crime about campaign laws might be confusing to some. Falsifying business records-yes, easier to understand.
Why wouldn’t that juror have said so during voire dire like the other two and get dismissed with them?
I’m just thinking that the jury won’t all see a direct connection to the election. I see it. I think you see it, however… who TF knows?
I’m afraid of a trickle-down. Like, if you can’t see a direct connection to election on a couple of of the indictments, why not most or all of them?
Might know in 12-13 hours.
I personally think there’s an unreasonable level of doubt, but there is some small amount of doubt. I think for the jurors, at least some of them, that for them will be a reasonable level. The falsifying records is about a slam dunk as you can get. I’m not sure the jury will get to the “with the intent to cover up another crime”, and in particular electoral interference.
Now here’s the thing. It feels to me that the prosecution has hung their hat heavily on election interference. But I’m not in the courtroom. I didn’t hear every word of testimony. Maybe they’ve focused quite a bit on the tax evasion, or the campaign contribution aspect. If so, then the odds of Trump being found guilty go up a lot. I think the leap to those crimes is much more apparent than he defrauded the people of their right to know about Stormy Daniels.
I would probably find him guilty based on the limited information I have on the case. But again I wasn’t in the courtroom listening to everything said.
We’ll know soon I think.