Well this is crazy but not entirely unpredictable. Turkey shot down a Russian jet near the Syrian border, saying it was violating their airspace. Emergency NATO meeting this afternoon. What the hell is this going to do with the efforts to coordinate the air campaign? Sink it is my guess. And what happens next?
As for the coordination of efforts, I could see it going either way, depending mostly on how Putin wants to play this. Shit like this happens in war, so I think this looks worse than it actually is.
Hopefully but a NATO member shooting down a Russian jet looks pretty fucking bad. And this isn’t really “shit happens” like a friendly fire incident. The best we could assume is that they thought they were shooting down a Syrian jet but it’s quite likely they knew it was Russian.
A Russian jet invading NATO airspace is pretty fucking bad.
Who knows what ground truth is, but since Putin is one of the world’s biggest liars, at this point I’m going to assume that Turkey isn’t fabricating reasons to shoot down an airplane.
Putin may be bellicose, but he isn’t an idiot. He doesn’t want this to escalate this any more than NATO does. Cooler heads will prevail.
I am sure Putin doesn’t want a full blown war but he may “escalate” some, like maybe next time a fighter escort for these northern bombing runs.
It’s been happening for some time. Scandinavia too. And there’s a Russian sub snooping Scottish waters at the moment.
You know, it occurs to me once again that so many people wanted to kiss Putin’s ass after he sent his military to Syria. I remember the swooning well: “Oh my! What a stroke of genius! Putin has pulled one over on Obama again! Russia’s going to win the war in 24 hours and the whole Middle East is going to fall in love with Russia, and start leaving flaming piles of dog poo on the doorstep of every American embassy!”
Now, those same people are saying, “Oh my! Turkey has made a big mistake! World War Three is neigh! Why can’t a NATO member just bend over and let the Russians give it to them! We don’t want to make Putin mad!”
I’ll say it again: Putin made a horrible miscalculation by sending his military into Syria. He made an impulsive decision that was short-sighted and he’s backed himself into a corner. While nobody likely predicted that Russian attack aircraft would be shot down for invading Turkish airspace, it’s not surprising at all. If you do stupid things, bad things are going to happen. Russia is paying a little bit of a price for a stupid policy on Syria, and I’m not going to shed crocodile tears for their imperialism turning out poorly for them.
That’s pretty crazy alright. Do you have a specific person you could point to?
Can I assume Putin’s claim that the militants they were targeting on this run were mostly of Russian origin is bullshit for the home audience or is there any truth to it?
Yeah. Maybe not yet the final nail in the coffin for the Putin-as-chess-grandmaster idee fixe, but the coffin has certainly been built and delivered to the funeral home.
I’m not inclined to call a specific person out on their views if we’re not in the Pit, but if you look at the similar thread in MPSIMS, there’s a few posts that are alarmist.
I haven’t seen that. I saw something earlier this morning claiming that the plane was bombing ISIL. The odd thing is, ISIL controlled territory seems to start about 80 miles northeast of where this event occurred. Maybe the jet was having “navigation problems.”
Turkey has repeatedly warned the Russians about this. In addition, pretty much everyone has told the Russians they need to coordinate their air strikes. Russia, of course, has ignored them (and has deliberately violated multiple countries air space to make their point).
What happens next? Russia will most likely squawk and howl and claim they didn’t violate Turkey’s air space. Relations between the west and Russia are already about as bad as they can get and won’t get better, despite the fact that ISIS has tried it’s best to make themselves the common enemy. Other than that, nothing much will happen. It certainly won’t be war.
From your lips to the Ears…
It’s not a huge deal, actually. Russia’s been testing Turkey for some time and now they know. They won’t violate Turkey’s airspace intentionally anymore. It’s accepted practice that when you test a nation’s airspace, you might get your pilots shot down. When Soviet subs used to occasionally show up in Swedish territorial waters, they’d start firing on them, and sinking a sub with its crew is a much more significant act than shooting down a plane. But defense of territory is a minimum requirement for being a sovereign state. As long as everyone knows the rules, wars don’t start.
Well sure but that didn’t ever actually happen and Sweden isn’t in NATO.
Btw, I am not condemning Turkey for this if anyone is under that impression.
I don’t know what to think. I’m generally disposed to believe Turkey over Putin, but they claim that they gave the Russian fighter a number of warnings before shooting it down, and you would think that they would have this recording of this that they could release to support their story.
From the BBC article I linked (though it looks like its getting edited continually):
Seems a little too perfect for domestic Russian consumption to be believed.
Pretty sure that’s not true. Got a cite?
18 September to 6 October 1980
The Swedish Marine tugboat Ajax discovers the conning tower of a submarine outside Utö in the Stockholm Archipelago. Submarine hunting helicopters are dispatched to the scene, establish contact, and fire warning shots.
October 1–13, 1982
The Hårsfjärden incident. After a long period of submarine incidents, the Swedish Navy sets a trap by sealing off an area with mines and sensors. A foreign submarine is then recognized to have entered the trap, and the navy responds in force with major forces stationed nearby. A reported 44 depth charges and 4 naval mines are detonated, trying to sink the submarine, but it is later determined that it avoided the trap or fled at an early stage.
May 4, 1983
A suspected submarine is reported in Törefjärden, North of Luleå, and mines are detonated.
February 9–29, 1984
Another submarine hunt in Karlskrona. 22 depth charges are fired against a suspected submarine.
Plus, I used to have a t-shirt of a Swedish farmer firing a shotgun at a surfaced Soviet submarine.