U of Washington forecasts COVID-19 numbers

[nelliebly]

For what it’s worth, a University of Washington growth modelprojects:

•the peak # of cases should hit the US around April 14th*.

• by the peak, US will need:
49,000 more beds
14,000 more ICU beds
19,000 more ventilators

•81,000 Americans will die by August 4th.

These are lower numbers than we’ve been expecting BUT ** all these numbers rely on maintaining and expanding social distancing**:

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week **and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, **emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

[Bolding mine]

Note that the growth model may change rapidly as the situation develops. Nevertheless, it’s good to have updated projections.
*For reasons I don’t understand, Washington state, which had the first US coronavirus cases, is not expected to peak until April 19th. Lucky us.

[PastTense]

It’s the best case scenario and it’s obvious that the best case isn’t going to happen: lots of states aren’t going to legislate these restrictions and a large segment of the population isn’t going to follow them.

[China_Guy]

UW covid testing website makes me cautiously optimistic for the Seattle area: UW Virology COVID-19 Dashboard

Seattle is not seeing exponential increases in positive cases. Testing isn’t where it should be but you can see how the UW lab and drive thru testing started ramping 2 weeks ago. If you haircut the numbers from the 10+ assisted care living facilities that are infected, the outbreak here may actually be flat or decreasing. I’m cautiously optimistic and will feel better by the day if there is no big uptrend.

One month ago today, most of the tech and big companies in the Seattle area started optional work from home. A few days later most voluntarily changed to mandatory work from home for non-essential staff. Gov Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency on 29 Feb and recommended stay home if that’s an option. Upgraded to mandatory “stay at home” on 24 March. I think we are a few weeks ahead of most places, hording shortages have changed largely to limited supplies.

[asahi]

@China_Guy

UW covid testing website makes me cautiously optimistic for the Seattle area: UW Virology COVID-19 Dashboard

Seattle is not seeing exponential increases in positive cases. Testing isn’t where it should be but you can see how the UW lab and drive thru testing started ramping 2 weeks ago. If you haircut the numbers from the 10+ assisted care living facilities that are infected, the outbreak here may actually be flat or decreasing. I’m cautiously optimistic and will feel better by the day if there is no big uptrend.

One month ago today, most of the tech and big companies in the Seattle area started optional work from home. A few days later most voluntarily changed to mandatory work from home for non-essential staff. Gov Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency on 29 Feb and recommended stay home if that’s an option. Upgraded to mandatory “stay at home” on 24 March. I think we are a few weeks ahead of most places, hording shortages have changed largely to limited supplies.

To follow up on this, the fatality rate in Washington (now under 5%) is gradually going down while it’s going up almost everywhere else.

[DSeid]

I’m not quite sure I grok their methods.

Best I can tell they are going with death rates curves based off of the sorts of results different social distancing methods have given?? Not using a standard SIR approach.

Any get it to the degree you can explain it better?

[DinoR]

@DSeid

Any get it to the degree you can explain it better?

No but clicking through from their site to their methodology

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

There are very large error bars

RESULTS
Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

The whole paper ishere.

[DSeid]

Yes, I read the paper and the methods section. I just could not quite follow the methods. “They used statistics” is not quite the level of understanding I am wanting … and lacking. Wide error bars duly noted.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@PastTense

It’s the best case scenario and it’s obvious that the best case isn’t going to happen: lots of states aren’t going to legislate these restrictions and a large segment of the population isn’t going to follow them.

From that paper:

*Conclusion

COVID-19 is an extraordinary challenge to US health and the healthcare system. In this study, we forecast a huge excess of demand for hospital bed-days and ICU bed-days, especially in the second week of April. Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states. This planning model will hopefully provide an up-to-date tool for improved hospital resource allocation.*

Stranger