Draw v Russia, narrow win v Wales, draw v Slovakia - through in 2nd in the group behind Russia. Get through the second round against one of the weaker nations (I did some sort of predictor thing on line with these results for England and they got Iceland in the 2nd round). Then get absolutely smashed by someone good in the quarters (it worked out to be France when I did that predictor thing).
England beat Wales twice in qualification for the Euros in 2012. Wales are a little better than they were then. That result is probably the one I am least confident of, to be honest, but I am not massively convinced by Wales otherwise.
I’m thoroughly confused as to the people who think Drinkwater would in any way be adequate cover for Eric Dier. Dier is a classic anchor man that drops deep between the two centre backs so the fullbacks can roam freely up the pitch when the team is in possession. He’s physically imposing, tackles well, and is excellent in the air.
Drinkwater is about as physically imposing as a chihuahua with muscular dystrophy as far as footballers go, and from what I’ve seen of Leicester this season while not an outright liability in the air certainly is no asset either. There is absolutely no way Drinkwater could replicate what Dier does at an international level. If anything, were Dier to be injured, his role would have to be filled by a technically competent centre back like John Stones. He’s there to recycle possession, break up counterattacks, and screen the defensive line when out of possession. Drinkwater does none of these things well.
Drinkwater is a discount Andrea Pirlo with an English passport. Dier is more akin to Patrick Vieira. They play completely different roles in a team even if they may often occupy the same space on the pitch, and the former is not an adequate substitute for the latter just because they both happen to often be listed as “defensive midfielder” on rosters.
What do you soccer experts think of Croatia as a dark horse? There are quite a few players with -ic at the end of their names playing for Europe’s biggest clubs. Modric, Mandzukic, Rakitic, Kovacic and Perisic are all excellent players. I can’t think of many defenders though.
Not supported by the facts. Using this stats engine to limit the players to DMC and MC midfielders, who played 20 or more games in the league and are English qualified, Drinkwater makes comparable numbers of tackles per game, interceptions per game and clearances per game to Eric Dier - clearances they’re essentially equal, Drinkwater makes more tackles per game (but is dribbled past more often) and makes slightly fewer interceptions.
It’s possible to underestimate him because he’s sat next to Kante who does all of these things better than Drinkwater in the same team - but he’s doing all of this stuff too and to a comparable level to Dier. As for whether he can do it at “international level” - he’s done it at a higher standard in the Premier League, so I don’t see why he couldn’t against most international sides, who aren’t up to the standard of sides around the top of the Premier League.
While your analysis has some merit, and I will admit that I may have been underrating Drinkwater somewhat as a tackler, he still has several issues (going largely by the statistics here):
He attempts more tackles per game than Dier, but does not have a significantly higher success ratio. This indicates several things, but most importantly it indicates that he can get away with attempting riskier tackles because Leicester play with two very defensively-minded fullbacks, and two very limited centre backs. Dier, on the other hand, when his team is in possession and right after loss of the ball, often plays as the last man between Alderweireld and Vertonghen who will both bring the ball up the pitch - something neither Huth nor Morgan ever do.
Drinkwater gets run past - and relatively often compared to other out-and-out DMs, to boot. Again, this is not necessarily a reflection purely of Drinkwater’s individual abilities, given how Leicester as a team are set up, but he cannot afford to be dribbled with that sort of frequency if he were to sub for Dier.
He makes significantly fewer interceptions - only roughly 70% of the amount that Dier makes per game - and he does this despite the system he plays in allowing him much greater freedom to attempt interceptions. Drinkwater is never, to my knowledge, the last defender between an attacker and the goal, but it is far from unheard of for Dier to be in this position due to Tottenham essentially playing a 3-5-2 with Dier as the centremost defender when they have the ball.
It’s not that Drinkwater is a bad player, or that he’s a worse player than Dier - in fact, I have been quite impressed by the Leicester midfield partnership all season, and I would not have minded seeing him included in the England squad. I think a midfield consisting of Dier, Drinkwater and Alli is far more palatable than one with Rooney in it, but unfortunately Rooney is a national mascot and will likely be included in the England squad even when old and wheelchair-bound.
However, Drinkwater is simply a fundamentally different type of player, and he does not come from a club system which employs the very specialized “half-back” role that Dier plays for both club and country. He is not used to dropping between the two central defenders when in possession, and unlike Dier has never been played as an out-and-out central defender under any circumstances. It is for this reason that someone like Stones or Jagielka would be better suited to replacing Dier in the event of injury - not because Drinkwater is bad, but because Dier is actually a centre back in all but name.
I actually think having both Drinkwater and Dier as midfield DM pivots, like Busquets and Alonso were for Spain in 2010 and 2012 would have been the best for England. It would permit them to play Rooney wide and Kane as a no 10 behind Vardy, which is probably for the best.
Of course, can anyone in footballing terms justify taking Wiltshire over Drinkwater?
Playing Kane behind Vardy wouldn’t make much sense. Kane works best as a target man leading the line. He’s not bad with his feet per se, but he’s no incisive passer either - that, and Vardy works best when he has space to run onto the ball, which he wouldn’t have if he were asked to lead the line on his own.
Oh, and Rooney is godawful out wide. He wasn’t good on the wing when he was young and still had legs, and playing him out wide right now would be a disaster - he just doesn’t have the pace. It’s simply not worth having him in the starting 11, in my opinion, regardless of how good he’s been in the past.
There is no way Roy is going to not play Rooney, which means one of Vardy or Kane are going to be on the bench. This is the only realistic way. I agree that Rooney no longer merits a place in the squad, playing him as a No 10 when you have Vardy and Kane makes no sense at all. And Kane’s speed means that he can be good as a second stiker or a No 10, which Vardy who is shoulder of the last defender type is never going to do well.
Bit like Villa and Torres in their prime.
It’s far more likely that Rooney will be played in the centre of the field as the team’s playmaker - he’s done it for ManU for a long stretch of the season and it’s arguably where he’s least bad at this point in his career.
I’m expecting Hodgson to only start 4 midfielders, of which two will be Dier and Rooney, with Vardy and Kane up top. Who he starts on the wings remains to be seen, but I find it most likely that it’ll be Sterling and Wilshere.
Wilshere will be injured the first time a stiff breeze blows across the Parc de Prince. I, for the life of me, cannot figure out why anyone thought including a man whose legs may very well literally be made of Weetabix in the squad was a good idea.
Ideally England would play 3 in the centre of the park and only a single striker, but Roy Hodgson has rocks in his head and will insist on fitting both Vardy and Kane on the pitch at the same time, and he’ll start Rooney.
Re: talk of who play on the wings for England - I don’t think they’re going to play anyone out wide and will rely on the full backs for width. Townsend was arguably the only out and out wide player in the provisional squad and he has been sent home. To Sampsiceramos’ earlier point about how Dier plays for Tottenham, I think the assumption has to be that he drops back to create a back 3 when we have the ball to avoid us getting totally caned on the break - and Rose/Clyne/Bertrand/Walker will be asked to get forward to provide width.
The remaining width would have to be provided by playing outlet balls to Vardy running the channels, I think. Once he’s knackered, they might well use Sturridge off the bench to do the same thing.
I see them with a narrow diamond consisting of Dier at the base, Alli and A.N. Other (and I really wouldn’t be surprised if this were Wilshire given Hodgson’s love affair with him) in a narrow central pairing, and Rooney at the tip, with Kane and Vardy up front.
If Hodgson doesn’t go for Wilshire, and is concerned about being hit on the break, I think he’s going to go for someone like Milner or Henderson, who can run up and down and get back to support the centre halfs and Dier on the break.
Written down like that, it’s made me consider how I think England will play and think that it is even more of a gamble to take Wilshire and Henderson give their injury concerns, as they’re pretty pivotal to what I think Hodgson is going to do. This gameplan could get blown up very quickly by a recurrent injury.
Ah, yes - you’re correct, of course, Cumbrian, that the diamond is likely to be a narrow one relying entirely on the fullbacks for width. I don’t know how that slipped my mind, really, and it does make the squad look entirely more palatable, given that it allows Rooney, Alli, Milner and Dier to all start simultaneously.
I’m curious, however, as to whether he’ll choose to start the Tottenham partnership of Rose and Walker, or whether he’ll go with Bertrand and Clyne. I feel like Rose and Walker fit the team better if the fullbacks are the only wide outlets, given that they’re more-or-less indisputably far better going forward than their alternatives, but I think they’re defensive liabilities and I’m not really confident England are realistically going to dominate possession against the top teams. I feel like it’s very likely Bertrand and Clyne get the nod against quality opposition while he may choose to use Rose and Walker against the minnows.
I’m also very curious to see how much gametime Rashford gets. I feel like Vardy is the better choice against top sides where England will largely sit back and try to score on the counter, but Rashford is a far better creator than Vardy, and I think he’s the outright better choice partnered with Kane against sides which are content to concede possession to England.
Well, Walker and Rose are the starting FBs in tonight’s friendly against Portugal (who are minus Ronaldo), so I don’t know whether that indicates Clyne and Bertrand are in it. This looks like a close approximation of what Hodgson considers his best starting XI I think:
Smalling and Milner (and possibly Walker) I reckon are the most vulnerable to a good performance by someone off the bench tonight. Not that I necessarily agree - just that I think Hodgson is pretty predictable.
Agreed - definitely when we don’t have the ball. When we do, Rooney is still central but seems to be given licence to drop off the front two into the hole/tip of the diamond.
Great tackle by Bruno Alves to pick up a red card there too - a head high, kung fu kick. Top effort.
Unsurprising, really. If anyone was going to make that sort of tackle it’d be Bruno Alves. I’m sure he’s a perfectly pleasant person, but everything I’ve seen of him over the course of his career suggests he’s dumber than a bag of rocks.
Reading this discussion, that largely happened before last night’s game, makes me worried - you guys seem to have it all about right, only for (according to the bits of first-half commentary I heard) Rose and Walker to hardly get forward at all. Odd. However, it sounds like the game was played at walking pace, presumably everyone was too worried about getting injured. So as usual, we won’t really know how the sides measure up until the competitive games start.
I tend to agree with everyone about Wilshire - let’s hope some sort of reverse commentator’s curse takes effect and he plays a blinder.