UFC 84: Ill Will discussion

The Game Room
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I’m very excited about this event. I’m going to go ahead and post my breakdowns and predictions, and anyone so inclined can do the same, and then we’ll come back after the fight and discuss how wrong we were :D.

Rich Clementi Vs. Terry Etim

Terry Etim is a strong wrestler. I think this is the first time the UFC has brought him across the pond, and they obviously see a lot of promise in him. Rich Clementi is on a tear, though, and I don’t think Etim will be the one to stop him. Clementi has the better submissions, at least equal standup, and loads more experience.

Rameau Sokoudjou Vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura

Sokoudjou will bounce back with another highlight reel first-round KO or TKO in this one. I just don’t see Nakamura having the strength or gas tank to do much damage.

Tito Ortiz Vs. Lyoto Machida

This is a very interesting fight. Tito should walk away with the win, but his career has been plagued with injuries for the last couple of years. If his knees and back aren’t in good enough shape to get that big double-leg takedown, Lyoto could end up outworking him for the decision. I give a slight edge to Tito because he’s the only one I can see actually stopping the fight.

Wanderlei Silva Vs. Keith Jardine

Keith is tailor-made for Wanderlei the same way Chuck was tailor-made for Keith. I see Wanderlei getting a big KO or a relatively easy decision. The only wild card is Keith’s size, which seems to be about 7 times that of Wanderlei’s. If Keith decides to stall-and-brawl on the outside or take the fight to the ground and lay on top for at least 2 rounds, he could walk away with the decision. Chances are, though, he will go in guns-blazing and get knocked out.

BJ Penn Vs. Sean Sherk

This is the fight that has me so excited. I cannot wait to see BJ maul Sean ‘The Roid Shark’ Sherk into obscurity and confirm his spot as the #1 lightweight in the world. Sherk is a cheater, period, and he’s not going to matter much after this fight. BJ has the superior standup and ground game and, in his own words, “just enough gas tank to put you away.”

You can’t confuse steroids for heart. I want the kids out there to know that you can get all of this with hard work and not have to cheat. How can you be a champion if you had to cheat to get there? - BJ Penn.

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I’m don’t think I’m familiar wth Etim, but Clementi’s hard to beat right now. I go Clementi too.

[quote=CiscoRameau Sokoudjou Vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura

Sokoudjou will bounce back with another highlight reel first-round KO or TKO in this one. I just don’t see Nakamura having the strength or gas tank to do much damage.[/quote]
Nakamura has an okay record, but he’s lost most of his fights against the big names (Rua, machida, Henderson, Nogueira, Barnett, Silva, etc.). Soukoujou will forever be the guy who knocked Nogueira out in the first round. I go Soukoujou by KO.

While we’re on Soukoujou, let me make a quick prediction about one of the fighters who gave him one of his two losses: Glover Teixeira is going to be light heavyweight champion after Chuck retires. Maybe not immediately, but eventually. Glover is a BJJ black belt who trains and teaches at Chuck Liddell’s camp under Chuck’s trainer, John Hackleman, and is just phenomenal. He won his last fight against Jorge Oliveira by knockout in the first five seconds of round one. I’ve trained with Glover at a couple of John’s seminars and he’s got to be the nicest guy on the planet who makes a living beating people up, just a really sweet natured guy.

Too close for me to call. I’ll go with Machida, he’s on a roll.

The night he fought Chuck I don’t think there was anyone in the world who could have beat Jardine, but I think if you staged that fight twenty more times Chuck would be winning nineteen of them. Wandelei by KO.

I just can’t get mad at Sherk; Hermes tested positive in that same fight and he’s sort of a friend. I just feel bad for them for making a bad decision (incidentally, Hermes helped train BJ for his last win over Joe Stevenson, wonder if BJ said the same thing to him then :dubious: ). That said, I think BJ’s going to take this one.

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Chuck’s a champ, and I think knowing what he knows now he would beat Jardine, but Jardine always would’ve won that first matchup IMO, 20 out of 20 times. He studied Chuck and came in with the superior gameplan.

Hermes was a man, admitted it and took his lumps. Sherk, a guy who has been an athlete his entire life, tried to say he’s never heard of nandrolone.

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Yeah, I agree. I meant to say if they fought twenty more times I think Chuck would take him, but Jardine smack dab had his number that night.

Yeah. Kind of ironic that Sherk’s suspension ended up being the shorter one. Hermes’ suspension is up in July, I really, really hope he can bounce back.

So, are we the only two watching the fights? :smiley:

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I get the UFC fights the day or so after they’re on, with BT. I’m currently in the middle of the couple months it’s taking to get UFC 20-60. I already have 1-10.

I like Penn. It’s so interesting to see someone win through such technique. It makes it more like chess, as people have so often said. I don’t have any real favorites, though. I just like the whole thing in general, really. Although “The Axe Murderer” is a really stupid and gross nickname. Tito Ortiz probably thinks he’s doing for MMA what Ali did for boxing in regard to promotion, but at least Ali was clever and funny. Ortiz is just brash and rude. I honestly want to ask him, “Did your mother really raise you like that?”

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Yeah, one thing the roid shark is right about is that the CSAC is whacky. Reason being that Hermes got a longer suspension for manning up than Sherk got for lying.

I have precious little tolerance for steroid use but I’ve always liked Hermes and gained a little respect back for him when he admitted his guilt. My opinion is that drug testing of contracted fighters should be random (I’ve been saying this for years and NV is finally doing it!) and first offense should be a fine and a 1-year suspension. Second time should be a lifetime ban.

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He was slightly more clever and funny in the old days. Love him or hate him, he has done A LOT for the sport. Equal to what Ali did for boxing, IMO, though obviously on a much smaller scale since MMA was nowhere near as big as boxing in those days.

Both of his parents were deadbeat drug-abusers. He raised himself.

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Two days. Anyone else got any predictions?

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Tonight’s the night.

Did anyone else catch the weigh-ins? A couple thoughts:

Tito looked RIPPED. More ripped than I’ve ever seen him. I hope this means his legendary cardio is back because Machida is elusive and this fight is probably going all 3 rounds. May the best man win.

Nakamura is dead. He’s a blown-up middleweight.

W. Silva didn’t take his shirt off. Just seems weird. If he doesn’t win this fight in a big way he’s going to have to drop down to middleweight.

BJ did not look dry at all, but he was chugging water right off the scale. Not sure what to read into that. He looked a bit drained and sounded almost out of breath in the Q&A with Joe, but maybe that’s just BJ in the zone. I hope his gastank is where it needs to be. Sherk is in for an ass-whooping for the first 2 rounds, but round 3 is going to decide this fight.

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Damn those were some good fights! I had Wanderlei over Jardine by KO, but i didn’t expect it in 36 seconds! On Wanderlei’s wiki page some smartass put under method of win “TKO (Death).” Jardine half looked it, too, my wife was concerned for him and kept asking if he was okay. Tito was so, so close with the triangle at the end of his fight.

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Yeah, that was a great PPV.

I felt a little bad for Tito, losing his last fight in the UFC. I have every reason to hate the guy, but for some reason I have a soft-spot for him. I can’t explain it. That triangle was impressive and very unexpected. I think he was right that if he would’ve committed to it rather than trying for the armbar as well he probably would have gotten it. I like Machida too and he’s got more fights ahead of him than Tito so I hope his success continues. He’s a tricky one.

Jardine/Wandy went exactly like I thought it would.

Ditto Sokoudjou/Nakamura. Nakamura has got to be the biggest tomato can in the UFC. I would pick Elvis Sinosic over him. I have to comment, though, that Sok didn’t look great here, either. He was very gun shy and unsure of himself. If he doesn’t get a big boost of confidence soon he can forget about winning against anymore top fighters.

Rousimar Palhares is one to watch. That was some beautiful jiu-jitsu. After his fight I looked at my wife and said remember that guy’s name! Then they showed it on screen for a few seconds and she said, yeah, good luck.

I’m so proud of BJ! Sherk bought into the cardio hype and tried to outlast him and paid dearly for it. That fight reminded me of Ali Vs. Wepner, with Sherk swinging wildly and BJ hanging back, relaxed, and absolutely destroying him with his jab. I couldn’t help but notice that Sherk shrugged off several big knees from Hermes, but one from BJ put him away. Are BJ’s knees that much more powerful, or did Sherk have some sort of extra edge in the Franca fight? Either way, I find it interesting.

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Did no one else watch?

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I finally got it off, um, this other method, that uses some tubes…

How do I have the impression that Ortiz is almost washed up when wikipedia says he’s 5-2-1 for his last eight pro fights? It must be the split decisions. I’m a little jazzed that Penn won. Somehow he strikes me as intelligent, although this business of pushing for Hawaii’s succession and this race registry thing I find troubling. He’s not even 50% Hawaiian, I read. Plus, what would possess the USA to let a state go that has a deep water port about halfway to Asia? The US government would seriously refuse a trillion dollars for Hawaii.

Anyway… I was telling my brother that one of the slightly disappointing things about this fight game is that there seems to be a good bit of luck involved in who is at the top. If your opponent bobs his head 1/4 second later, you miss that “button-strike” punch and just tip his chin instead of putting him down and putting him under your will. Clearly all the top guys are there through talent, but what’s the longest champ-reign in the UFC in the past 10 years? Royce was so dominant because there was clearly a very large talent and technique gap at the beginning of the UFC, but now everyone has been shown almost all the finishing moves and how to escape them, so it’s like baseball, in which no one will probably ever have the kind of batting average gap that Williams and some others did. The overall talent pool has come up, and it’s closer to the limit of human possibility. I wish it were clearer that luck didn’t factor so largely in it.

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You’re right, to some extent. Any given fighter can win on any given night - that’s part of what makes it exciting. Somewhere on the internets there’s a video floating around of a pro fighter who challenged some 98lb weakling average Joe to a cage fight. Something about a girl. This fighter was a well-respected talent with a winning record, and he got knocked out in the first round. It’s the nature of a fight. Chaotic.

There’s also a reason the top guys are at the top, though. While Andy Wang could theoretically KO or submit Fedor, don’t hold your breath.