Uh, Oh! Bird Flu Gets Scarier

[Tuckerfan]

We have seven cases of human to human transmission.

According to his information, at least 300 people have died from H5N1 bird flu in China, with 3000 confirmed infections and seven cases of human-to-human transmission. Several dozen outbreaks have occurred in China, according to FAZ. The implications of these numbers, if confirmed, are staggering. They point to an active human H5N1 epidemic in China, and would require that the WHO upgrade its pandemic preparedness plan rating from three to at least four, meaning there is good evidence of increased human-to-human spread of the disease.

Dr.Tashiro, head of the Department of Virology at the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Disease, and Director of the WHO Collaborating Center on Influenza at the Tokyo National Institute of Infectious Diseases, obtained the stunning unofficial report that he used to substantiate his claims during his recent WHO visit to China’s Hunan province. He is convinced that both his source and the figures are reliable.

You’d think that China would have learned a lesson from SARS, but it doesn’t look that way.

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

It just hit the fan. :eek:

[China_Guy]

link doesn’t work for me. I would like to see some collaboration. Actually, a dorm buddy works for WHO in Beijing and I need to catch up with her.

That said, China did learn lessons from SARS. Bird Flu has been front page news in the Chinese press. WHO is very active in investigating problems and there have been no reported incidents on access issues or non cooperation. For at least the publicized outbreaks, the Chinese government has very quickly made a quarantine zone, destroyed all poultry within the zone, and quarantined anyone suspected of contracting bird flu or having had contact with anyone with bird flu. To say that this is akin to the SARs situation is incorrect.

Is it possible there are outbreaks that are covered up? Yes. Is this national policy? Absolutely not.

Please understand that China is no longer a monolithic police state where the government has complete and total access into every citizens private life and the entire country is one puppet that dances when Beijing issues a proclimation. Vestiges remain of course. The point being that one incident somewhere in China is no more representative of national policy than a redneck sherriff harrassing someone for their looks is indicative of President Bush.

[CynicalGabe]

Yes! We are all going to die!

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

It has been Officially Denied.

Thank Og.

[CynicalGabe]

@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor

It has been Officially Denied.

Thank Og.

From now on, we’ll call you “Buzzkill” Di’Chi of Tricor…

[Inigo_Montoya]

@China Guy

The point being that one incident somewhere in China is no more representative of national policy than a redneck sherriff harrassing someone for their looks is indicative of President Bush.

I think I know what you’re trying to say…but you will need a different metaphor.

[butter_pie]

The implications of these numbers, if confirmed, are staggering. They point to an active human H5N1 epidemic in China, and would require that the WHO upgrade its pandemic preparedness plan rating from three to at least four, meaning there is good evidence of increased human-to-human spread of the disease.

Oh noes, not four!!! Anything but that!

[NurseCarmen]

My pandemic preparedness plan rating goes up to eleven.

[Seven]

I wonder if it’s too late to get Michael Brown on the case?

Brownie does good job.

[picker]

@NurseCarmen

My pandemic preparedness plan rating goes up to eleven.

It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.

[Tuckerfan]

Oh, crap!

The latest news comes as researchers reported two cases of patients in Vietnam who died after failing to respond to the drug Tamiflu.

The drug, which governments around the world have been stockpiling in case of a pandemic, is the most effective yet found in combating the virus.

H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS

The Vietnam cases, reported in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, suggested the H5N1 virus which causes bird flu is mutating and becoming resistant to the drug.

[matt]

Dangerous as it may be to introduce Michael Fumento to the discussion, his article here is well worth reading:

http://www.fumento.com/disease/flu2005.html

Basically, this matter is getting way overhyped.

(Incidentally, Fumento links to a review of himself which describes him as a “really meticulous asshole.” Which made me warm to him a bit…)

[Trunk]

I’m just waiting for, say April or May when no one cares about it any more and I can come back here and drop a big “I told you so.”

This is no different that Sars, or the Monkey Pox, or the Beijing Flu, or any of these other things that have every scared shitless every single year because of MEDIA HYPE – not reality.

Tuckerfan, you can “Oh, Crap” and let yourself be scared by it, or you can be reasonable. Your choice.

[Tuckerfan]

@Trunk

I’m just waiting for, say April or May when no one cares about it any more and I can come back here and drop a big “I told you so.”

This is no different that Sars, or the Monkey Pox, or the Beijing Flu, or any of these other things that have every scared shitless every single year because of MEDIA HYPE – not reality.

Tuckerfan, you can “Oh, Crap” and let yourself be scared by it, or you can be reasonable. Your choice.

Hey, pal, you have your hobbies and I’ll have mine.