Major gains? no, but would they have to be major in order to raise questions about SNP mandate? Imagine the SNP’s share is down a few percent and they lose a seat or two. In numerical terms there is no major change but any shift in that direction will be in stark contrast to the upward trend of recent years.
Plus, there is a complicated calculus to be performed on the combinations of viewpoints regarding pro/anti independence and pro/anti-EU. I think it is really difficult to make a confident prediction on how voting intentions will play out in light of those conflicting views.
The big problem with fighting the SNP is the splitting of the anti-SNP vote between the various Unionist parties.
My mother wanted to learn more about the local elections (on May 4th) so a week ago attended a local Tory fundraiser. Because she’s elderly, I chauffeured her. There were two MSPs and their assistants in attendance. It was most conspicuous that the senior MSP disappeared for almost the entirety of the event and the three others spent most of their time chatting with each other in the corridor. At the time, I put it down to laziness and arrogance, but I now wonder if they had not already heard?
Perhaps almost as importantly from her point of view, UKIP will finally disappear up its own internal contradictions, and it’s too quick for their moneybags Banks to get his new UKIP-alternate venture off the ground.
I’m not convinced that the Tories will gain more than one or two seats in Scotland, or indeed that Labour will totally implode. In 1983, they dropped to 209: they currently only have 232 anyway. The Tories might gain another 20 or so, and they might even lose a few to the LibDems.
Sturgeon is going to try to make this into a second independence referendum, but I don’t think that will fly.
Those people in Scotland who are pro-Brexit and pro-Union will vote Tory.
Those who are anti-Brexit and anti-Union will vote SNP.
The rest will be conflicted. It depends what they feel strongest about. Some of them may go back to Labour. But I think the turnout will be very low in Scotland, because many people won’t want to vote for any of the parties.
Sturgeon can’t gain, because she’s already hit her high point.
Well, yes, I think they would. A party with 5 seats could try to claim that a party with 50 seats didn’t have a mandate, but they’d look pretty foolish attempting it.
The debate might be interesting. Corbyn has the best policies and the best mind, but is terrible at presentation. May isn’t very bright and is mainly known for supporting Brexit, less than a year after passionately opposing it. And the rest don’t matter.
Well I’m not sure it’s in everyone’s interests to make this a single issue election: NHS in crisis, austerity lies, 10% of workers on minimum wage now, 35-children class sizes, etc. And all of that as the UK approaches maximum practical employment (now sub 5%).
So while Labour can broaden it out - policy announcements in the past 10 days have been excellent - it can’t disguise the fact of Corbyn not being seen as a leader.
May was by no means the most outspoken Tory in her opposition to Brexit; she actually took some flak for it at the time. And now, I don’t know that she supports Brexit, as such, so much as she believes it’s her job to carry out the wishes of the majority of the British people who voted for it.
There was a poll a while ago (can’t find a link at the moment but I’ll keep looking) which asked “Who would you rather have as Prime Minister? Theresa May, or Jeremy Corbyn?”
Corbyn came third. Out of two. He was beaten by “I don’t know”. I’ll be voting Labour this election and urging my friends to do the same, but I’ll be amazed if May doesn’t improve on her majority.
Also, how about her looking for a larger majority in order to - and there are echos of Trump’s US healthcare reform in this - not failing on a softer Brexit through a combination of, on one hand, opposition and, on the other right wing hard Brexit nut jobs.
Well maybe, but that’s the two biggest selling newspapers using violent us vs them language on their front pages on Day 1 of the GE campaign. It’s hard to see that as anything other than worrying.
Am I the only one who thinks she is playing the long game, hoping to lose so that the Tories are out of power during the disaster that is Brexit, blame their opponents for the mess they caused, and then use that to take and hold power afterwards?