UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017

Well, it went okay - predictable but okay.

Fwiw, Corbyn is on firm ground (on the War on Terrah!) even if he isn’t as eloquent as Owen Jones was this afternoon - the first five mins is gold: We have to debate the causes of terrorism | Jeremy Corbyn is right: we have to talk about the causes of terrorism if we're going to tackle fanatics who want to maim and kill. Me on Sky News earlier | By Owen Jones | Facebook

My decision to stay up and watch the election was derided when I mentioned it elsewhere. It now looks like it’s going to be a very exciting night.

Agreed - he’s learning how to handle aggressive interviewing, and to be honest the most aggressive stuff Neil did ask was pretty predictable. He certainly did better than May did on Monday (which seems like waaaay longer than 4 days ago).

Is there a good site to view British polling, something equivalent to 538?

I always watch General Election nights anyway, so Friday 9th is booked as a holiday.

I usually peruse http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not yet. 650 constituencies, very many aren’t 2-horse races, an awful lot of tactical voting, local and regional variations. Hell, national variations with 4 countries involved - it is complex.

This time we also have an unusual number of off-radar voters. I can only guess but I still think the polls can only accurately indicate sentiment.

There is also this

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/may/08/general-election-2017-poll-tracker-who-is-in-the-lead

538 have done their thing at a couple of UK General Elections now, with mixed results. Here’s the post-mortem on 2015:

The domestic pollsters didn’t really get that one right either, on the whole.

Thanks for the links! Labour really is improving consistently. And the Tories have past their peak. But I think time will run out before it makes a big difference.

And looks like a tight race between UKIP and the Greens for the bottom.

I’ve been looking at this for weeks thinking they would realise how fucking stupid it is, but no … who cares about 14 days ago. It’s as relevant as last year.

Weighted ave of the last 7 polls seems so much better - available from other resources (FT).

It very much depends where Labour’s increased percentage of likely voters is distributed. They need to be picking up in marginals - holds and potential gains - and that’s unclear.

Typical behaviour of the SNP.

Quartz, it’s a civic and joyous nationalism. Not like those other nationalisms with their dark undercurrents, oh no.

“Get out, not welcome” means something different from an SNP supporter driving around yelling at people, don’t you know.

Movement over time and direction of travel…

Not quite 538 but there is this:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Conservative Central office in near melt down, allegedly. Thought the hysterical tone in both May and Johnson’s response to Corbyn yesterday was telling - they are taking the 'surge very seriously, and they really don’t like it up 'em :slight_smile:

It surely can’t happen but nonetheless looking forward to tomorrow’s polls with almost kids-at-Christmas excitement!

Corbyn’s been caught telling porkies. He claimed he never met the IRA, except in 2000 Corbyn shared a platform with Brendan McKenna at an event commemorating Bloody Sunday. Guido has details of further meetings.

And the Telegraph are reporting that people are starting to bet on Corbyn becoming PM.

The sad thing his fans don’t care. They have about as strong a relationship with reality as Trump supporters.

Just be glad you only have to deal with two months of fuckwittery and not two years.

I’ve mostly been keeping tabs on the UK election through shows like Have I Got News For You. I find it hilarious that May wanted to go to the same broken system for things like end-of-life care in the US (Medicaid pays for nursing home care, for example, but the state can then take the entire estate to pay it back) and then immediately had to walk it back.