Guido reports that Yougov are putting the Tories’ lead as down to 5%.
Wow, it certainly looks like there’s a lot more at stake in this election than many assumed. I can’t see Labour winning, especially without Scotland, but honestly right now anything better than a 1983- or 1997-style meltdown would look like a triumph for Corbyn and a crushing defeat for May.
Labour really need to hit May’s record as Home Secretary, with the scaling back of police numbers/resources to the fore. That angle of attack doesn’t necessarily play to Corbyn’s strengths, mind you, but it could play in the country.
But the SNP would be with Labour on very many issues. Let’s see how Corbyn’s big foreign policy speech goes down tomorrow …
He should stay domestic…
Question from an American keeping track of the UK election:
I know the Fixed Term Parliaments Act set elections five years apart, so the next one was originally slated for 2020. Now that there will be a snap election on 8 June, when will the next one be? Still in 2020, or does that now get pushed back to 2022?
PS–Shocked May seems to be losing her lead, if that one poll putting the Tories up only 5% is accurate. Will make for an interesting election night in a couple of weeks…still can’t imagine Corbyn winning. Then again, I didn’t think Trump would win here! Viewing from afar, would it be accurate to say that May hasn’t exactly been running a competent campaign?
The phrase ‘strong and stable’ is biting the Tories in the arse like ‘back to basics’ did in the 90s.
The Conservative manifesto for this election includes the repeal of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, so if they win, all bets on election dates are off. It hasn’t really had much of a chance to prove itself before being threatened with repeal, it seems to me, but that’s the way it goes.
I wonder if that’s May distancing herself from Cameron’s legacy even more clearly, or whether there are other factors at play.
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As above 2022, though it is in the Conservative Manifesto to repeal the Act after the election. No idea what Labour might do, no one thought they would get this close …
It’s a good point.
Looking at the poll trackers it’s interesting to note the Tories are roughly where they were when Theresa May called this election.
Not least because of our good friend Sankey, I’m not sure that means the the ‘Labour surge’ has come at a cost to all other parties, as might be thought from the poll trackers: Subscribe to the Financial Times
My guess is it might be better to say non-Tory Remainers are firming up behind Corbyn as his ‘leadership’ - such as it is - has been seen to be adequate.
If YouGov are close to accurate, and bearing in mind the large number of totally off radar Corbynistas … well, stand by your beds.
Looking forward to the weekends spate of new polling with considerable interest …
Given what we know about Labour support in Scotland, what those poll numbers imply for England and Wales is astonishing.
He should stay quiet. Given his low personal approval generally, and sky-high approval within the party, he should be off the media and at rallies in marginals. “If your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt”.
Normally, winning support among non/infrequent voters wouldn’t be worth much, because that support tends to evaporate come the polls. But Corbyn has a decent track record of getting support from people disengagedwith party politics, so it might be worth more. But still, a hundred and sixty thousand votes means everything in a party leadership contest, not so much in a general election. Getting that vote out, and getting it out in the marginals, is going to be everything for Labour.
(On young voters in particular: even if everyone turned out at the same rate, and even if the same number of children had been born each year for the past 80 years with no variation, there would still be more people in the 65+ age-group than in the 18-24 group, simply by virtue of the range of each category. Given that there was a baby boom, and older people do vote more, Corbyn needs to win a lot of *actual votes *from young people for this to be worth anything.)
YouGov poll tables here.
Really interesting: Labour gains reflected/caused by lead among young voters and in London/North - but not in class: ABC1 and C2DE still both leaning Tory. Voting isn’t about class any more.
His interview with Andrew Neil is on BBC 1 at 7pm tonight. 
Good stuff; much to digest. Seems to confirm the inclination of a turnout north of 70% - for the first time since, dare I say the name, Blair in 1997.
Interesting thought on Newsnight last night about the manifestos; the top Labour pledges are all seen as positive (NHS, etc) , the Tory ones as negative (school meals, Dementia, etc).
Also seem to confirm Labour are doing well on the current ‘don’t knows’ - absolutely must firm those up. And Corbyn is seen more as leader material (thought it could hardly have been worse).
Scroll down to see the numbers on Amber Rudd vs. Diane Abbott …
The IFS have costed the manifestos. You can see the piece on tax and benefits changes here.
If you thought in 2015 that the Welfare Bill and Labour’s inability to vote against it showed how badly we needed a party that stood up for the workers and the disenfranchised, the party you should vote for to reverse the Bill’s attack on the poorest in society is… the Lib Dems. See slide 18 for details. Their policies will do more to reverse the real terms loss of income for the poorest 20% caused by Tory policies than Labour’s will. That’s… kind of disturbing, tbh.
Did May meeting with the Dear President of the USA have any impact on the race?
Not really, it was prior to the election being called. There was a fair bit of adverse comment about him being offered a full State visit so soon in his Presidency. It’s not an election issue though.
But he would have been out of his element in the absence of gold-plated gaudy conveyances.
Amazing to see Labour’s upward arc in the polls. I still expect a Tory win, but it will almost certainly not be the blowout May had hoped for from the outset.
This is probably the Longest Day for Labour - if Corbyn can get past the rest of it intact, esp. the 7.00pm interview with Andrew Neil, it will have been a very good day.
The initials ‘IRA’ will crop up more than once … It’s all about how Corbyn bats that stuff away, and whether he sounds like a leader in so doing …
The meeting around the NATO summit? A meeting with the US president during the election can make the PM seem more ‘statesmanlike’, though obv. not when the US President is basically a hatstand.