UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017

At 830 PM tonight on Sky News, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will take questions from voters. if you’re in the USA, Sky News offers a free live stream on their app for iPhone and iPad. It is also available on Apple TV. Oddly enough, C-Span doesn’t appear to be covering it live.

It would be remarkable if both Cameron and then May got shown the door for grotesquely misreading the public mood, one after the other.

Lest we forget Cameron opted for a referendum to settle an internal Tory party fight. And May called the general election because she felt she needed a bigger majority given the right wing of her own party will only support a hard Brexit.

They’ve almost run out of their own feet to shoot.

Anyone watching the Sky News ‘debate’ ? So far, Corbyn looks weak. He completely blew the question about nuclear weapons, he could have stood up against Trump and in support of NATO.

tbh, I think the entire subject area is bogus ‘what will you do if some nut job creates a nuclear holocaust - will you add to it or not?’

The real point of the UK having nuclear weapons is not that we would ever use them, it’s to validate the absurdity of the post-war UN (permanent member) veto.

I know which Jeremy came out of that exchange better. It wasn’t Paxman, who has descended into self-parody. They should have given the one-to-one part to Faisal Islam.

May might as well just be reciting the “Lorem ipsum” placeholder text.

I spotted Corbyn’s reply to Paxman on the abolition of the monarchy - it made me chuckle, and was refreshingly honest.

I’m just back from playing Bridge. I recorded the debate. Is it worth watching?

Nothing major earth shattering. Paxman came off as a pompous ass, but the questions from the audience are worth a quick look.

Yes, a clearly prepped answer, but a good one. JC wouldn’t be the first socialist whose republicanism was diminished after direct contact with the House of Windsor, mind you…

Overall, I’d say Corbyn acquitted himself well, May did OK. I doubt any opinions were changed.

The audience question parts are*. The Paxman bits, less so.

*You can play the “Spot the really obvious plant from CCHQ” during the Corbyn segment

Okay. Sounds like viewing for tomorrow afternoon. Can you tell me the time markers so I can skip Paxman?

The show was divided into four parts: audience/JC, Paxman/JC, audience/TM, Paxman/TM. Should be easy enough to skip about.

When doesn’t Paxman come off as a pompous ass? We call him “Disappointed Dad” whenever we watch University Challenge.

Excellent, thank you.

It was disappointing in so much as Labour, in order to maintain momentum, probably needed Theresa May to have a partial melt down. I guess it’s all gone so well you hope the roll will continue - will Labour consolidate 7-8% behind the Tories …

The key thing, as with the laments last year in the US, is the national or even regional totals simply don’t matter for the election. Simply. Don’t. Matter.

What matters is the total in each of the UK’s ~650 separate constituencies. The national total, or it’s change over time, provides very little insight. But folks, both pros and amatuers like us, love to read too much into those national figures.

In election after election all across the modern free world we’ve seen legislatures of all flavors under all sorts of electoral systems where the final seat count and the national vote total differ by 20 or 30%. Imagine for a minute a reputable pollster did his process then came out with an announcement: “My estimate for the outcome is X% plus/minus 25%”. He’d be laughed off the stage. That’s what each of us does when we look at national totals.

The national media has an obligation to talk about the election since it sells commercials. And for their convenience they like to talk about national totals. But that’s really just the equivalent of the drunk searching for his car keys under the streetlamp because the light’s better there. Easy != useful. Not even close.

what I’m expecting to find interesting is how the public perceives how their MP’s voted in/out of Europe, relative to the voters of the constituency.

got a feeling it may play out to Labour’s disadvantage in the north and strongly to their advantage in London.

I have a feeling that voting for Corbyn may be very positive, when seen against the polls.

difficult to see a Labour win still, but it’s looking much more of a possibility than a couple of weeks ago.

[Rant]
Bugger the politicians; can we fire the Civil Service? I’ve just wasted a morning and more waiting for them to be completely useless. And because the milk went off overnight and I couldn’t stray from my PC and phone, it’s been a morning and more WITHOUT TEA.
[/Rant]