I’d agree the polls don’t matter too much in terms of the ultimate outcome but they matter very much both in terms of assessing ongoing sentiment, and also in creating the mood around a campaign - never mind what a surge does to activists and supporters, it’s the ‘don’t knows’ and wobblers it helps firm up that really help.
This made me laugh; stick this up your poll predictions >>
There was a point to this rant. Getting multiple departments to co-operate - in my case HMRC and DWP - is immensely difficult. But it shouldn’t be. I want a government that will control the civil service, not vice versa. As you may gather, the Tories have failed in this regard.
I’ve started to stock up for Election Night. Crisps, dips, chocolate biscuits, lemonade, a bottle of Prosecco, and I’m treating myself to some cider - I’ve petty much given up cider as it has so much sugar in it.
Okay, I started to watch the debate and I’m clearly not in the mood (see rant above) because I switched off from disgust during Corbyn’s question on the IRA. He waffled the question on IS and tried to deceive the audience on the IRA and didn’t answer either question, waffling about process. The man’s a babe in the woods and unfit for leadership.
I’ll give it another go tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll be in a better mood.
I’m actually helping with the count in my constituency on election night.
Are you actually doing the count or observing? Or are you the Returning Officer? Will you be incommunicado WRT other constituencies until after your count is complete?
I’ll be a Count Assistant, so counting the actual votes. I don’t think I’ll be responsible for any communication outside.
Shit, I need to actually send back the acceptance form…
That’s a thankless job, so have a “Thank you” in advance.
Hah! Thanks for the thanks 
Quartz, if you fancy a go at helping with an election the local councils usually advertise a good few months in advance of a timetabled election*. They always need folk to help out at polling stations, and it’s an interesting experience, and you get paid. Once they have your details on file, if my council is anything to go by, they’ll contact you in advance to see if you might be available for every election ever.
So YouGov, for The Times (paywall) are modelling … wait for it, we all knew it was coming … a possible/probable hung Parliament: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
I have no idea how nuanced this is (not very might be my guess); YouGov have certainly found ways to keep themselves at the centre of the election discussion …
If you can’t see it:
Tories: 310
Labour: 257
SNP: 50
NI: 18
LD: 10
Others: 5
Graphic of the above: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBGpKdrW0AA1YYi.jpg
I’d love to be a fly on the wall at Conservative Central Office …
I can’t think where Labour are going to win those seats, to be honest.
When was this latest poll done? [I would have predicted an increase in support for the Tories as a result of the Manchester bombing.]
You would have predicted wrongly, it seems. Polls taken post-Manchester show Tory support continuing to decline at the rate it was declining in the days immediately before Manchester.
Labour support may have stopped climbing, or slowed its climb, with the Lib Dems and the Greens being the beneficiaries. But there are all very minor changes, well within the margin of error, so I wouldn’t read too much into them.
Indeed, while the Tories are generally thought to be ‘tougher’ on issues like terrorism, Theresa May cut 20,000 police jobs while Home Secretary - included armed police.
Also, Corbyn’s argument that the UK’s foreign wars have contributed to terrorism resonates with many.
BOOM! Nailed it - Corbyn announces he will attend tonight - May accused of running scared, etc, etc ‘strong and stable’ my arse.
Reluctant to go too far with this but my instinct is it’s an epically bad call by the Tory team, perhaps even of historical proportions. If it wasn’t hung before it ought to be now.
Live blog as the whole day unfolds:
I’m surprised that the normally pro-Tory “Go-get-em-Theresa” comments section of the BBC’s news website has a bunch of comments along the lines of “How can you negotiate with the EU if you can’t even handle a TV debate?”. Surprised and pleased. I hope this is the major misstep that results in a hung Parliament. Then the fun will really begin.
Unlikely, but how weird and ironic would it be if the Tories majority is sustained only by the seats they get in Scotland!
