I’d say there will be a new election in the fall. It’s not good for the hard Brexiters, but it’s perfect for those who think the rush to hard Brexit was bad policy.
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Thinking about it…
Turnout 2015: 66.4%
Turnout 2017: 68.7%
I don’t think the youth bothered to vote. It was UKIPers splitting unevenly between Tories and Labour.
What’s the normal turnover in a Parliament between elections (MPs die, resign because they get high paying jobs elsewhere…)?
Mrs May is a Clintonesque campaigner. As in like Hillary, not Bill. In her ability to lose elections she really should have won.
There were 10 by-elections in the 2015-2017 Parliament just dissolved.
There were 15 in the 2010-2015 Parliament; 14 in the 2005-2010 Parliament; 6 in the 2001-2005 Parliament; 17 in the 1997-2001 Parliament.
So, 62 by-elections in about 20 years; a long-term average of just over 3 per year.
Well, clearly the first election was neither wise nor desirable (from the government’s point of view). And, given that, on this result, the Tories must continue to form the government, my guess is that they will do anything to avoid a second election.
The question is not whether a second election would be wise or desirable; the question is whether it can be avoided, and for how long.
Clearly May has been a terrible campaigner but do the Tories have a replacement lined up or will they try to hobble along with May?
This election is going to complicate the Brexit negotiations enormously. They were already difficult but a few months back Britain at least had a PM in reasonable control and backed by a majority.
The Tories are projected with 316 MP’s and presumably they will be joined by the DUP which has 10 MP’s which will give them exactly the 326 that they need. So we can presumably rule out a non-Tory coalition forming the government. The coalition will be incredibly fragile though and a single MP will be able to sink it.
Assuming Sinn Fein continue abstaining, they really only need 322 or so.
BBC predicting 313 for the Tories, now. Even with the DUP, only 323, maybe enough for a razor-thin majority not counting the Speaker and Sinn Fein.
I think 313 is the actual and 316 is the predicted ( below the top chart). Even I was confused by this; that top chart is poorly designed but my interpretation is it shows the results with the predictions in grey on top of it. The table below which says “national seat predictions” shows 316 for the Tories.
Now the BBC predicts 318. That would make their coalition majority with the DUP slightly more comfortable but still not enough to form a majority on their own even with Sinn Fein abstentions.
I wonder whether this is a good result for Labour in the long run. While Corbyn smashed all expectations, it’s still hard to see him actually winning an election and now he is completely secure in his leadership.
Zac Goldsmith squeaks in at Richmond Park.
The Telegraph had a report that the Communists ( presumably the official party ) weren’t standing because they were confident Corbyn’s policies were identical to theirs.
Last week I saw on The Times ( Fox ) that YouGov now predicted the Conservatives were now losing it a bit ( something like they’d be 18 members short ): immediately below it was a bit on Corbyn in new Anti-Semitism row.
I was with a Jewish friend just then and we thought that hilarious.
Best Result: Imagine old Murdoch’s misery right now…
I think it was the Elmo.
Not very long I would guess. Maybe not till the end of the year. This sort of “majority” is untenable during normal times. With extremely contentious Brexit negotiations it’s not going to be normal times. I wonder how many people in the British establishment want to bash Cameron’s head in, right about now.
As an aside, since May is presumably going to need Ulster Unionists support, when was the last time an Irish party had so much power. Not since the days of the IPP I would venture.
They were all talk.
Actually, I’ve heard estimates of 72% youth turnout.
Something of a nightmare situation. The DUP wagging the Tories, or a coalition with LibDems and ScotsNats both wanting to replay referenda they lost last time.
Yes, so have I but I haven’t seen a source for it. . A quick Google found this NME exit poll which reports a 56% turnout among 18-30 y.o.
The 72% figure seems to come from a Sky estimate based on the official exit poll and other polls, so it’s a calculation rather than a straight poll.
72% is an enormous leap - [del]56% would be huge in itself[/del] - and doesn’t seem to fit with a 2.3% overall turnout increase. Unless the elderly vote collapsed to balance it out which be a cataclysmic result.
(Must do the actual maths on this).