Now taking recruits for the Light Brigade . . .
But, come on, Russia has to be #1 there, it’s a tradition going back to Ivan the Terrible!
(Whose appellation, Grozny, actually means “terrible” in the sense of “awesome,” not “horrible.” But Ivan was definitely both.)
Again, given that you have said you do not care for democracy and are not fussed by authoritarianism, what exactly do you mean by “free”, and why do you think it is a state worth achieving?
At this point I think that article is overly optimistic to unrealistic. Given the situation on the ground Crimea is part of Russia now. I find it highly unlikely Putin will pull back.
Whether something similar happens in the eastern parts of Ukraine remains to be seen but considering he was able to take control of Ukraine without firing a shot I don’t know what there is to make him think he has to stop.
It doesn’t matter how much the EU and NATO squawk, even a President Romney or McCain wouldn’t risk WW3 over the Ukraine. I’m sure Putin knows that.
With no backing from The West, right? Pull the other one. Its got bells on.
As for the “popular uprising” they have – the US and its acolytes – their openly Chosen One in place, mind you.
So in your mind RedFury, the Ukranians are utterly incapable of rising up on their own to oust a corrupt leader?
Movements can have outside backing while still being widely popular.
For example, I assume you’d the uprisings against the South Vietnamese government was a popular uprising despite huge amounts of outside help.
My predictions:
[ol]
[li]Russia is stuck with the semi-arid Crimean Peninsula and now has to provide both freshwater and power to it.[/li][li]Crimean Tartars become radicalized and begin yet another Islamic insurgency against Russia.[/li][li]Ukranians who hold the civil service jobs in the Crimea emigrate back to Ukraine or overseas necessitating their replacement by as yet unknown trained parties which will cause suffering for the population remaining in Crimea.[/li][li]Eastern Europe presses closer to NATO ensuring that the next Russian response in that area becomes a conflict which could involve the US.[/li][li]Ukraine decides to re-ignite its nuclear weapons program as a response to its lack of military capability against Russia.[/li][li]The US decides to forego seeking Russian assistance in the future in areas which it has and begins to act unilaterally (e.g. Syria and Iran might experience greater pressure from the US than before)[/li][li]Western Europe decides to begin weaning itself off of Russian gas as it deemed to be too unreliable or politically costly.[/li][li]Russian economic woes increase[/li][/ol]
Hope that Putin enjoys his “victory,”
nevadaexile, your prediction number 7 raises an interesting question. I wonder if anyone has an answer:
Could Europe decide to just stop buying Russian oil and gas? Could they switch over to Norwegian/North African/Gulf States stuff in order to punish Putin? Or is something stopping them?
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They are Tatars. Not Tartars. And they are far from crazed Islamic fanatics, and in spite of their general pro-Ukrainian stance, it is hard to imagine them becoming terrorists unless Putin decides to follow Stalin and try to massacre/deport them.
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Ukraine doesn’t have a “nuclear weapons program” and never had it. Soviet Union stationed a bunch of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and after the breakup there were negotiations in which Ukraine gave them up in return for Russia respecting Ukrainian borders (silly Ukrainians believing Russian promises).
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Your scenario really depends on the West suddenly growing balls. Unfortunately, those atrophied a while ago and cannot be revived.
I so rarely get to say it so indulge me please…I told you so.
Oil is fungible and traded as a commodity, so for the most part you can’t avoid buying oil from someone unless you impose sanctions on them. They could stop buying Russian gas, but not overnight; gas has to be transported by pipeline, so there would have to be a new trans-Mediterranean line built or something.