Unanticipated aspects of a pandemic

It was the same guy - but there’s some dispute about whether he was forced to walk home in his underwear because he was told to turn in his uniform and equipment immediately (his version) or whether he was told the uniform could be returned at a later date and offered a ride home and insisted on stripping and walking home. A local newspaper article had this

but Lee later denied saying that in the interview

We live in a rural area. The closest town police department has one full time officer (the chief) and 3 part timers. When, for instance, the chief is testifying at a trial and there aren’t any other officers working, calls go through to the PA State Police. Then again, we’ve never had to call.

The police department still manages to generate revenue with a speed trap that everyone who lives here knows about, yet people driving through get nailed all the time.

I foresee a Mad Scientist re-engineering the virus to produce vivid multicolored welts over an infectious carrier’s body. People must appear naked in public to prove they’re not contagious. The clothed and welted will be shunted into colonies until they recover. Misfits and welfare kings will fake the markings and dress funny to obtain free food, lodging, meds, and cell service. Radical political-religious movements will worship hairless pets. Celebs will stream shave-every-square-inch videos. Sunburn will be chic. The FDA will target bootleg Albanian depilatory lotions.

I just finished a serious scientific book on the bio- and mineralogical history of Earth that ended with a speculation that penguins might evolve into intelligent beings to take our place after we end as a species – apparently penguins have been evolving more quickly than similar critters.

I don’t think there is any scenario by which this blows over in a month or two.

There was a simulation model in the NY Times that had infections peaking in July and disappearing in October.

Thanks for that. I’m finally “getting” that the LONGER this episode goes on, the BETTER. Fewer people will get sick, and fewer will die, and there will be fewer severe “side effects” (e.g., people not being treated for OTHER, everyday problems), if the overall episode takes many months to “resolve,” rather than simply many weeks.

That doesn’t mean the major disruptions to our lives (school closings, broad travel restrictions, etc.) and to the economy must drag on for many months. These restrictions can likely be relaxed and removed gradually, through late spring and into early summer (but we’ll see).

Really? Because i think the longer this goes on there will be more school closings and travel restrictions. And more panic buying resulting in food shortages and maybe even gas shortages. And even businesses going out of business and mass unemployment. I think it really depends on how many people end up actually getting sick and not able being able to work.

And also, god forbid, if another natural disaster occurs during the midst of this Corona Crisis.

American Airlines is shutting down 75% of it’s wide-body fleet. I was hoping they’d run international flights with just freight loads with a temporary change in dim-weight charges (dimensional weight) to help cover the cost.

I’m kinda surprised not all major school districts have shut down nationally. I’d think an extended Spring Break would be a natural response. We’ve had a mild winter this year so the 5 calamity days set aside for this would be available without any changes to scholastic requirement. I’m assuming all schools have some kind of calamity day set-asides for weather emergencies.

Explanation from my local countyBoard of Education.

Thanks for the cite. Not sure I’d agree with the statement: • Closing schools will increase social mixing of populations, which may increase the spread of disease and lessen ability to monitor students – social mixing of populations are those places where people not typically associated with each other come together, such as theme parks and other large gathering venues. Closure of these venues are more likely to prevent the spread of disease.

nm

And there’s another issue that I didn’t see explicitly in that explanation- some of those parents affected by childcare issues will be healthcare workers and first responders. They won’t be able to work if they have to stay home with their children because the schools are closed.

and about this

The mayor of the township where my daughter lives asked residents to self-quarantine today after seeing people congregating at parks and going to each other’s homes on Saturday. He was quoted as saying “We didn’t close schools so your kids can have playdates or play basketball.We did this because it’s a public health crisis.” I am absolutely certain that any district that closes schools but not malls and parks and bowling alleys will have teenagers congregating even though schools are closed. In NYC, there’s talk about shutting down bars and restaurants as well as movie theaters and gyms because people are still packing them.

Mini baby boom. Also, divorce increase.

World wide tobacco use will diminish, also smokable weed in the US. Edibles will increase.

Something is being missed, or one should give an “Incomplete” to that board of education; yes, there is modeling evidence that a short 2-4 weeks of school closures will not be effective, although that is forgetting how in Singapore all have access to care and testing (knowing who is actually sick is half the battle); what is missing is what the CDC is saying now:

I’ll let others speak to the Spanish Flu but the Black Death depopulated much of the world by almost 50%. It took a couple of centuries to reach pre-plague levels. the Plague wasthe main factors in the weakening of feudalism (labor shortage), and the consequent rise of guilds, the middle class, etc. It also intensified prejudice against Jews, causing a diaspora from the worst of it, and weakened faith in the Catholic Church, causing some other permanent changes.

There isn’t really a thing called “normality” anyway, and “prosperity” fluctuates for many reasons. So, not really buying your argument.

Major events like this do cause permanent social changes, and we don’t know what they will be.

I remember the day after 9/11 grocery shopping (in California) and being kind of shocked that people – mostly young, college town – seemed so unstunned. I felt very disoriented myself, like I’d been in a car crash. An older guy, my dad’s age which would mean he lived through WWII, in the check out line turned to me and said quietly, “everything’s changed now.”

And it was.

That is what the CDC is saying, but the schools in my area that are closing are planning to close for 1-2 weeks. I haven’t seen one planning to close for four weeks, much less eight. Even people who are upset about districts that haven’t closed yet are clearly envisioning 2-3 week closings - they’re talking about “5 snow days and extend the year 5-10 days at the end and maybe that will bring us to spring recess”. Nobody seems to really be considering closing schools until mid-May - just the shorter timeframe that is unlikely to have much benefit, if any. And there may be any number of good reasons why that’s not being considered - but I’m not going to fault the Stanislaus County Department of Public Health ( the origin of that guidance although it was on the BOE website) ) for not discussing the impact of longer-term closures that were probably never under consideration.

Ok, so that’s changed- NYC schools will be closed at least until April 20 and possibly until the end of the year, but some campuses will reopen as enrichment centers and they’re working on a plan for childcare for essential workers who attend public schools. But in truth, I don’t quite comprehend how having some kids in enrichment centers and providing childcare for others is different from those same kids attending school - it almost has to be school buildings and school personnel being used. If 90% of kids come from families where it’s possible for a parent to arrange some kind of childcare, I can see how that could work but I’d really be surprised if even half of the families could arrange something on short notice.

I didn’t think it would take long for NYC to reconsider but that was pretty quick.

Just got a text message from the Track head coach. The School District is closing all sites on Thursday, slated to re-open April 19 (maybe).

Like I said, just 2 weeks was not going to be enough, as I also did say IMHO we can return to normal faster than that once testing and more access to treatment is widely available.

Knowing then where the disease is and what controls are in place will allow schools and other places to open sooner rather than later as it is taking place now. Just never forget that that took place mostly because we still don’t know about the real extent and locations where the contagion is.