I don’t think there’s any “probably” about it. Trump is a shoo-in for 2020.
I started another thread a few weeks ago, saying that I thought a Republican victory in 2020 was almost assured, and that was when I thought Hillary would win easily. It’s definitely assured now.
Why? Because there will be more jobs, higher income, and lower medical insurance premiums for lots of people. Not because the Republicans are so great, but because they are so bad.
With Trump in the White House and the Pubs controlling both houses, Trump will be able to get almost anything he wants. Yes, Obamacare will be repealed. No, it won’t be replaced, except with some ineffectual fig leaf. Yes, premiums will go down, because the policies will be crappy again. People who are happy with their low premiums will find out why Obamacare cost more, when they have a serious illness and their insurance gets cancelled. But most people don’t get serious illnesses, so most people will think repealing Obamacare was great.
Every ten-year-old knows that we need a massive infrastructure upgrade, which will create a ton of new jobs. Obama tried very hard to get that going, but the shitass Republicans obstructed it, as they obstructed almost anything that Obama was for, putting the party ahead of the country. When Trump proposes the same thing, of course the Republicans will vote for it, and so will the Dems, because they put the country first. So Trump will succeed in dramatically raising employment.
Same thing with drilling, pipelines, etc. Trump will open all that up again, and to hell with the environment. Miami will be under water in 50 years, but in 2020, all people will care about are cheap gas and even more jobs.
Last but not least, Trump will appoint another Scalia, and maybe several Scalias, to the Supreme Court. If you think anonymous money and voter suppression were bad this time around, you ain’t seen nothin yet. They will make it so hard for minorities and college students to vote that that alone would ensure a Republican win.
So yeah, Dems are fucked in 2020.