I hope everybody learned that lesson in 2016.
– I think that “failure-of-imagination” is basically the same thing that makes some MAGAs so sure that Trump won in 2020. Many people talk mostly with those who agree with them. If everyone you know personally (or at least everybody who’ll say so) voted for Trump, or voted for Clinton: it becomes hard to believe that there were really significant numbers of people who voted otherwise.
You can be enthusiastic without being sure of a win. There surely are West and Stein supporters who feel as thrilled to see their hero in person as Harris supporters are when they see her.
Since Trump remains ahead in most (all, if you count the electoral college skew) post-Biden-drop-out polls, it would be polling denial to be confident of a Harris victory.
Trump getting shot was big. Some voters will feel they cannot let the shooter get what he wanted. If not for that, I think Harris would be ahead in the horse race today.
I can’t speak for the campaign, but voters certainly thought Hillary had it in the bag. So without a perceived risk that Trump might actually win, some voted third party, some stayed home, and some might even have voted for Trump to express whatever displeasure they were feeling about Clinton.
Absolutely, case in point, I am enthusiastic without being sure of a win. 
I’ve only heard maybe one or two people on this board express this kind of confidence. IRL, I’ve experienced absolutely zero who have this mindset. The feeling I’ve come across is “it’s a race again” versus despair that the Democrats have no chance at all.
To be clear I am absolutely not sure she will win. I think she’s a great choice, and Biden stepping aside was 100% the right thing to do. She’s probably favourite but there is still a significant chance Trump will win.
I’m just saying it would be awesome and significantly increase her chances if everyone (except the people actually running the Harris campaign) was enthusiastic to the point of triumphalism. Not late October 2016: “phew despite everything she seems to have done enough”. I mean actually " this is awesome! Harris is the future! I’m so excited for the Harris presidency. Trump is doomed!'. If that was the general attitude in the swing states going into election day i’d be ecstatic
I don’t think Trump is doomed but everyone thinking he was would be great!
Apropos of nothing…
The beautiful, archetypal irony of Donnie the Convicted Criminal facing off in a campaign against Kamala the Prosecutor just struck me and gave me a warm, fuzzy, anticipatory glow…
Boy, have you guys checked out Kamala Harris’s family? Her parents, sister, niece and to some extent her step kids are all accomplished people. Sister Maya is very accomplished and her & daughter Meena are also philanthropists.
So, bye bye “Biden Crime Family” and hello “Harris High Achievers Club”.
I disagree, simply because someone who is experiencing triumphalism will lose that the moment they see a setback. Someone who is enthusiastic without assuming it’s already in the bag will realize that it’s still going to be a fight and not everything will necessarily go smoothly.
The Biden Crime Family was a work of fiction, so I expect the Harris Crime Family to also make an appearance.
Outside of Hunter, I’m not aware of anything that actually would lend itself to even the slightest plausibility of the Bidens being involved in crime, unlike the Trump family who has actual court findings of criminality that involved participation by multiple family members. (See the case against the Trump Org in NYC.) So don’t expect things like “facts” to get in the way of a MAGA narrative.
That almost seems to imply that the MAGA slime machine actually needs there to be even a kernel of truth in order to malign, deride, disparage, and slander somebody 
ETA: Yeah. In theory, I could have read @Atamasama post first 
That was my feeling about Velocity’s advice to candidate Harris.
OTOH, I kinda feel that some infrequent showings of earned arrogance from her based on actual strengths and accomplishments would contrast nicely with CFSG’s chest thumping and poop throwing displays. Trump’s arrogance comes from being an inveterate and skillful gaslighter, and his hubris is just a by product of narcissism.
On the other other hand, she should, as any professional adult should, avoid childish or punning nicknames for her opponent(s). That’s the other guy’s schtick and is viewed by most non-MAGAts as an indication of a temperament and manner inconsistent with a position as Chief Executive. [/pomposity]
While this is probably true, and while I doubt such voters will recognize this nuance, as near as I can tell we don’t know what he wanted. That is, he apparently wanted Trump dead; but he may also have wanted to shoot Biden and/or Harris and/or anybody else famous – he might have been more interested in notoriety than in particular targets.
Again, as long as the people feeling that way bother to turn up and vote. And to drag their like-minded friends with them.
Yeah. She should insult him – but not like that. She should call him out on actual convictions* and on provable lies. And if she can slip in an occasional dig of the sort that he won’t get until five minutes later – that would be great. But we don’t need a battle of school-ground name calling.
(*I noticed in the speech she made that she was very careful to do exactly that – to note that in a civil case he was judged guilty of sexual assault, rather than making the mistake of saying he was convicted of rape. The difference in that case is a technicality of how the law was written at that time; but using “rape” instead of “sexual assault” leaves an opening for Trump’s defenders to claim he was judged innocent.)
Given her years of experience as a prosecutor, I would hope that she was pretty skilled at being precise and accurate with her legal terminology. And she doesn’t disappoint.
Good point.
ETA: There were other points in that speech where she seemed to me to be skillfully trying to disarm possible criticisms of it – making sure when she praised youth and energy to also praise older generations, for instance. (Not that that will stop MAGAs from taking single phrases out of context, of course. But I doubt we’ll get a “deplorables” statement from Kamala. Or for that matter one about it not being her job to worry about half the country.)
There really haven’t been many polls that were conducted after Biden dropped out on Sunday. The NYT has reporting about just this issue today. Most of the polls we’ve seen were already in progress at the time so there is overlap in the dates. It will likely be a week at least before there are enough polls conducted after that event that truly reflect the Trump/Harris matchup.
WHO on earth at this point is CONFIDENT of a Harris victory?? Exactly no one. 
I am saying 60%. Hardly confident.
I’d say about the same (maybe 2/3), but I’d call that confident
Times/Siena poll (gift link) released today and conducted 7/22-24 shows Harris within 1 point of Trump with likely voters (vs. 6 points down for Biden just after the debate). Significant improvement in voters under 45 and Hispanic voters. Slight erosion among older voters.
This is before a VP pick. I wonder if Kelly would help more with older voters than Shapiro - as an “older” voter myself I grew up with “astronaut” as the ultimate hero.
She was crushed in the nomination race in 2020, so, no, she is not comparable at all to the likes of Clinton or Obama.
I like her and think she’d do a fine job as a President, but I am referring to CANDIDACY. Clinton and Obama had a buzz to them, a charisma that resulted in them coasting to victory on their first attempt.