I had this as a random one off question in another thread, and decided it deserved one on its own.
If turnout will be a key factor in the upcoming election, what do you think voter enthusiasm is like for both candidates? By my lay perspective, it seems that most Harris voters are pretty passionate about it; there don’t seem to be a huge number of lukewarm supporters, for various reasons. Is this so?
Similarly, while MAGA voters are known for their cult like passion, how intense is it this time around, for both them and non-MAGA Republicans? There’s no avoiding that this is Trump’s third presidential campaign in a row, and my lay perspective is that that surely will have a negative effect of some kind.
Whatever the truth of either of these questions, are they reflected in most polls? I’ve been getting mixed signals about that.
This is something I’ve thought of myself. When Biden was still in play, there was a lot of media coverage about neither leader being as well liked as they were in 2020 but it was more about the ideals. The Harris camp certainly does seem to have the enthusiasm so I am curious to see if that translates into better Dem vote turnout. At the same time I never want to second guess Trumps “cultism” potential for MAGA success.
I actually get the sense (anecdotally) that, among Trump supporters, there is a larger percentage that are enthusiastic about him – than the percentage of Harris supporters who are enthusiastic about her. The Trump-enthusiasts number is down from, say, four years ago, but still higher than hers.
Enthusiasm for Harris, and not just against Trump, was briefly high, in certain circles, twice: just after her announcement, and during the Democratic convention. There is some consistent enthusiasm for her, to be sure, but it’s overwhelmed by the feelings of concern about Trump winning.
(The equivalent on the other side – Trump voters’ fears of Harris winning – exists, too, but I get a feeling that a lot of it is performative, especially performative misogyny. Hardly anyone really thinks or care that a Harris administration will, say, lead to an epidemic of pet eating. Raised taxes? That’s a real (if selfish) concern for some of them. But economic woes? That’s 90% pure bullshit. Most of them are doing just fine, and would perceive the economy as magically going from “awful” to “awesome” at 12:01 PM on January 20, were Trump to win.)
Turnout is the key factor in every election. It is the beginning and end of all election efforts in a country like ours, where a huge majority of the populace doesn’t regularly vote.
Too many Americans say “convince me to vote” when they should be saying "convince me to vote for you."
More than enthusiasm about Harris (don’t get me wrong, I like her quite a bit both as a candidate and a person) this was what I think was the biggest change the day Biden dropped out: the New Shiny Candidate. When it was two wobby octagenarians that had already faced off before, the MAGA cultists were happy to vote for their guy again and could get revved up at his rallies (to a point) but had settled into a fait accomplit sense of meh. And virtually all Dems were basically, sigh. Got a bad feeling about the election, but I’ll vote against Trump anyway.
The enthusiasm the erupted wasn’t just for Kamala Harris (middle name: “firstwomanofcolourattheheadofaticket”) but it was “Holy shit, there’s another option!” Dems were running someone younger, and hipper, and more telegenic, and all of a sudden it was like everyone’s first election. Of course, this is reflected on the right with the thrill and enthusiasm of voting against a woman of colour, who’s no doubt going to (insert whatever lunatic NewsMax CS they’re pitching).
I can’t gauge from here which side is more Enthused. I both suspect and hope (knock wood) that the youngest cohort of first-time voters are very psyched at having this new choice, but we’ll start to find out in 32 days.
I’m not sure either. While I do think there are a lot of Republicans who are more enthusiastic about DJT the candidate versus their perception of what woe and calamity will befall the nation if Joe or Kamala were to be elected, I’m not so sure that number is higher than the number of people who are legitimately excited about Kamala herself.
I mean, Biden at best was a “best we’ve got” sort of candidate who was running strictly by virtue of being President already. And in 2020, he was the right guy because in the face of Trump’s wildly capricious and chaotic term, “Uncle Joe” looked like the soul of rectitude, constancy, and integrity.
Now Kamala looks like a younger, more vital, more representative candidate for many people- she makes Trump look old, grumpy and tired. Which is what Trump was doing to Biden before he bowed out.
The thing is, the Republican campaign messaging is almost entirely about fear. Fear of girls getting a bad shake by trans athletes, fear of criminal illegal immigrants, fear of just about everything. (We get a LOT of Ted Cruz ads around here, unfortunately). So as long as the Republicans stay afraid, they’re going to keep voting red. And since they’ve got their own media ecosystem feeding them just the right propaganda to keep them afraid, it works.
I feel like the number of people who are thinking Trump’s great are far outnumbered by the number of people who are fearful about how they perceive the nation to be going, and who want Trump because he’s a perceived strongman and going to stick it to those who they perceive as their/the country’s enemies.
One proxy for voter enthusiasm is small donors numbers. I still see August as most recent numbers and we can compare and contrast to how 2020 Biden Trump numbers looked. Open secrets.
In 2020 Trump was 49% small donors while Biden was 39%. As of 2024 August’s numbers Trump is down at 32% and Harris 42%. And that’s with Harris’s total numbers being substantially higher so in absolute term more impressive.
The numbers of of strong approval and disapproval are another proxy for enthusiasm. From a recent YouGov discussed here elsewhere:
She seems to be ahead in those strongly voting FOR her and way less in those motivated to vote AGAINST her compared to Trump.
I recently moved from a red state to another red state and it looks to me as if the enthusiasm for Trump in general is less so that it was in previous elections. Not as many lawn signs, not as many MAGA folks on street corners waving signs. On the other hand, I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris as I would expect even in a red state. A few lawn signs, but that’s about it, which tells them it’s still a toss up and will depend 100% on turnout.
I think expecting young voters to make the difference is a mistake given their track record. I think the Dems have been less successful getting out the vote than the Republicans have. Fortunately, there are more slightly registered Dems then there are Republicans which even things out.
I think it’s a coin toss unless something dramatic happens in the next month that pushes one of them into the spotlight in a positive way over the other.
The second time today you’ve (rightly) corrected my gut feeling on something! Though, in this case, your proxy variables, while helpful, don’t fully distinguish between “enthusiastically anti-Trump” and “enthusiastically pro-Harris.”
One thing for sure: Harris inspires more enthusiasm than Biden did (in early 2020) or would have (in late 2020). I seem to recall a few polls that got right to this question – no proxy variables required.
Excitement among Harris voters now outpaces excitement among Trump voters, according to an Aug. 25-28 USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters that found 68% of Harris supporters are “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 60% of Trump voters.
In June, before Harris launched her campaign, just 30% of President Joe Biden’s supporters said they were “very excited” about voting for him, compared to 59% of Trump supporters who said the same about the former president, USA Today/Suffolk polling found.
An Aug. 1-20 Gallup survey also found the share of Democratic voters and voters who lean Democratic who say they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about the election now outpaces enthusiasm among Republican voters and voters who lean Republican, 78% to 64%.
The Gallup findings represent a stark shift from March, when 55% of Democrats and Democratic learners said they were “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting, versus 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters.
The surge in excitement among Harris supporters has led to an all-time high in enthusiasm among all voters (69%) during a presidential election cycle since Gallup began taking the measurement in 2000.
Voters in both parties are relatively excited, Gallup found: Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is one point below the all-time high it reached during the 2008 primary between former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while Republican enthusiasm is nearing the 70% record high it reached in August 2020, during Trump’s re-election campaign.
Thanks. I wish I could find comparable numbers that were more recent. Even though that article is from late September, the polls are from August, pre-debate. All I found were a few state specific articles, including this Wisconsin one.
Enthusiasm continues to tick upward among Democrats and Republicans, but the poll also noticed a sharp increase in the enthusiasm of Independents since September, nearly 20%, who usually remain the most pessimistic statistically.
That could be a turning point in that close a race.
Nothing in this statement has anything to do with voter enthusiasm, which is the subject of this thread. It’s a hijack to the topic. Please don’t do this.