Apologies if this topic has recently been covered - this thread currently in Great Debates is asking for election predictions, but skimming it I see that it’s mostly people predicting the winner and/or how the electoral votes will go. I’m wondering what the SDMB thinks will happen with the voter turnout. I think it’s a given at this point that voter turnout will be higher than usual, and this election is especially polarized. But how many additional voters do you think will actually turn out?
This site lists voter turnout in US elections. For presidential year elections, it seems to hover around 50% over the last few elections:
Year Turnout of voting-age population (percent)
**2000 51.3%**
1998 36.4
**1996 49.1**
1994 38.8
**1992 55.1**
1990 36.5
**1988 50.1**
1986 36.4
**1984 53.1**
1982 39.8
**1980 52.6**
Color my cynical, but although I think turnout might approach 60%, very surprised if turnout overall tops 65%. I think that realistically, any voters who are still “undecided” are going to turn out to be non-voters.
In this hotly-contested, often-debated, highly-polarized, election that seems to have very few still-undecided voters, what do you think the voter turnout will be?
I pondered putting this thread in IMHO, since it’s basically a poll, but then I figured the subject matter lends itself better to GD.
I’m guessing it will be high. I think the intense emotions this election campaign has generated, along with the example from 2000 of how even a few votes can determine an election, will bring out the voters.
My guess is around the 55% range, which your chart shows was the figure in 1992. Despite all the talk of a huge turnout this time, that’s often the talk. I would be quite surprised if it were 60 or more.
There will be a lot of peer pressure to go out and vote… and even people who don’t care might get dragged along. So do expect more “blank” votes or votes for third party candidates as a means of “throwing away” votes.
Now why predict 56.5% ? What do you have against full numbers !! Say 57% !
What about battleground states ? Are they more sick and tired of being harrased ? Or do they understand that every vote counts and will show up in high numbers ?
Seems like the norm is about 53%. I hear people predicting 60% this time. I’ll bet those predictions are off by half (on the high end). I’ll go with 56.5%. How’s that for a scientific analysis?
How about some pseudoscience?
I decided, of course, to run a regression on the turnout for Presidential elections since 1924, available here.
Predicted result: 53.84%. One std below is 49.3, one above 58.38.
I’ll go with one std above, 58.38%. Of course, that would make it higher than in any year since 1968.
I predict a huge Bush turnout in the Midwest etc, and a lower turnout for Kerry in the pre-labeled “Democrat” states (Cal, etc)… so it will be a bit skewed.
Speaking of, I’d better get my voter preview thingie done before Tuesday.
Any particular reason, other than it being a battleground state? I would think another b/g state, like Florida, would take that honor owing to the large % of seniors living there. That demographic is noted for high voter turnout all the time.
