Prediction for voter turnout?

Great Debates
21

My guess is between 53 and 54%. If all the people who whined about politics actually voted I’d guess that there’d be 70% turn out…

22
  1. %
    I think we will see a lot more young voters this year.
23

I’ll bet a long shot–70%.

24

Polerius beat me to what I was going to post: the sec’y of state here in WA has been saying he believes turnout will be very, very high. He was a guest on the local NPR station during their hour-long morning show, and he was claiming at that time turnout would be north of 75% of registered voters. That seems really, really high to me, but he’s been doing this a while, and should (better) know what he’s talking about.

Nationally? I dunno. I’ll stake an outlying position, though, and say 65%, just to be dangerous. :stuck_out_tongue:

25

Has anyone taken 61%? Oh, shoot, SimonX took 60.5%.

Put me down for 61.5%.

26

I think it will be a really high turnout most places, but since California isn’t close at all, and so much of the country lives there, I’m going to go 58.1%, Bob.

Big money! No whammies!

27

57%

Dunno and dun care if it’s already taken. I’m just in it for the glory.

28

66.6% Reminds me of one of the candidates somehow.

29

I’d say both. I work in a resturant out by Pittsburgh International which is where the candidates fly in for stops in Western PA, Eastern Ohio, and Northern West Virginia. We are sick and tired of the cops shutting down the freeway for the candidates. It takes money out of our pockets. We are especially sick of the TV commericals. They come one after another now that the campaigns for state races are buying ads as well. Tonight we all agreed that Tommy Chong would make a better president then either Bush or Kerry. But we are talking about the election which is rare and a lot of us are voting.

Put me down for 61%

30

I just read this poll from Gallup.

31

Voter turnout, 62.5% nationally. Surprise Kerry landslide.

If I’m wrong, no one will remember. If I’m right, I shall be immor…Aurrgh… :mad:

32

I’ll go with 50.05%

33

Since the three most populous states, CA, TX, and NY are not really close I will go with 54.5%.

34

Just to get my WAG out there, 72%, mostly because I want to have a high guess on record in case it blows away all estimates :slight_smile:

Do I hear 73?

35

55.5% here. :slight_smile: I’d be shocked if it went over 60%, though I have to admit the lines here in NM last week for early voting were huge. Glad I voted early…and often! :wink:

-XT

36

I’ll go with 63.7%. Kerry landslide.

37

Now that I’ve actually read through the thread I seem to have a suspiciously similar guess to Braintree. Hope we’re right… otherwise as s/he said, our guesses will just be convieniently forgotten…

38

I just got into the office after voting in Precinct 328 of Travis County, Texas. According to the clerks, 50% of the registered voters in our precinct had voted early, and “It looks like the other 50% are voting today.” I don’t know the registration figures for my precinct, but around 95% of eligible voters in Travis County are registered for this election. I have no idea how that will translate to the rest of the state, let alone the rest of the country… but I’m beginning to wonder if my 72% WAG (which I made intentionally high) was too low.

39

I figures this thread deserved a bump.

Anyone know what it turned out to be?

40

Clicky

I also heard (no cite) that turnout among young first-time voters was lower than predicted (it was about the same as in 2000).