What will turnout be?

DSeid · November 2, 2008, 5:03pm

Inspired by this article which predicts record turnouts.

The only question dividing experts is how huge will it be. Will it be the largest since 1968, largest since 1960 or even, as one expert predicts, the largest in a century? … “It’s driven by 90 percent of the American people thinking the country is on the wrong track,” Gans said Friday. “The only question is how many Republicans are not going to show up.” … The McCain campaign released a strategy memo earlier this week, saying “turnout is going to go through the roof,” and predicted that more than 130 million people would vote. And Obama campaign manager David Plouffe on Friday said, “we think turnout is going to be higher than that” but wouldn’t give a number. Four years ago, 122.3 million people voted for president. … McDonald predicts 64 percent of the eligible voters will cast ballots. That’s more than 2004’s 60.1 percent and a hair above 1960’s post World War II high of 63.8 percent. The high for the 20th Century, using McDonald’s calculations, was 65.7 percent in 1908 when William Howard Taft defeated William Jennings Bryan.

So if you have already placed your bet on timing of McCain’s concession, place one here too! I’m calling it at 65%, diminished some by some Republicans just staying home. Otherwise we’d break the last century record.

(yeah, not really a GD, feel free to move it, but being political and all …)

Phlosphr · November 2, 2008, 5:32pm

Turn out will be high but it will be lessened by what was learned in 04’ but there will still be problems.

drastic_quench · November 2, 2008, 6:05pm

When there is no room left in voting booths, the dead shall walk the earth (and vote).

Rather than slack off in sight of the finish line, I suspect the majority of Obama supporters and fence sitters will want to have a part in history by voting for Obama. Hell, I still brag that I was able to vote for his US Senate run.

Jackmannii · November 3, 2008, 3:19am

For those expecting a huge turnout by young voters, sobering words from Gallup:

“Although Barack Obama leads John McCain by almost 30 percentage points among 18- to 29-year-old registered voters, these younger voters are still less likely than older voters to report being registered to vote, paying attention to the election, or planning to vote this year.”

Least_Original_User_Name_Ever · November 3, 2008, 3:41am

Um, by the way, in two days, the Obama Campaign knocked 580,000 doors in Indiana.
…Just sayin’.