blue tsunami!
That 25 point margin has been fairly consistent since about the time Trump first appeared on the scene. The key is in getting the 18-29 turnout rate up to 55%. Then the overall numbers start to turn things Dems’ way.
It suddenly appears that there’s a reasonable shot at getting the kids to vote. It’s really important that they do.
One thing that that I hope I see are selfies of younger voters on social media with pics of them with their “I Voted!” sticker, waiting in line to vote, etc. Those are the kinds of viral trends which can help get them to actually cast votes. And hopefully the Dems start working on methods to create voter registration viral trends so that all the unregistered younger voters are registered to vote in time for the election.
Well, they did form the firing squad, but didn’t form a second one just for Harris. I’m more optimistic than I was. I wish dump would debate her so I could watch her hand him his ass. It would be epic.
I think there is a multitude of reasons.
The first being it is no longer a rematch from last time. A lot of people would have still voted for Biden in the end but it was not an inspiring choice because of his age and believing he was a transition candidate in the first place.
The second is Harris is a much better candidate now than last time when she seemed unsure of how to position herself. She suffered from the same case of Elizabeth Warren in 2020 in appealing more to the editorial boards of the newspapers rather than ordinary voters.
The third is Harris being able to run a “prosecutor vs convicted felon” race is perfect for 2024 and is being embraced by Democrats strongly as the angle. Donald Trump is a criminal after all. But she ran away from her prosecutor background in the 2020 primaries because the party activists and thought leaders in the media ecosystem proliferated the idea that it was something to be ashamed of. The irony of the author of the 1994 crime bill winning wasn’t lost on me but that was because Biden and to an extent another former prosecutor Amy Klobuchar actually read the pulse of the voters better than Harris did.
The nice thing about Harris’ impending nomination is that it totally pushes Trump off the media stage. The media likes novelty, and basically everything that could be said about Trump or Biden has already been said, but people haven’t really been paying attention to Harris, so the next few weeks will be all about trying to figure out who she is, what she wants to do, and what sort of support she has.
This is going to piss off Trump to no end, and may result in his looking for things to say/do that will redirect the attention back at himself. But given how high he’s raised the bar in terms of outlandish behavior, his usual degree of bigoted insanity is just going to be met with ho hums from the media. If we are lucky he might end up pushing to an extreme so far out, that even the right wing media can’t normalize it.
Also this:
What’s exciting to me is not the actual numbers but the fact that it shows JFK Jr taking more votes from Trump. I was expecting this (the GOP put so much effort into co-opting the bonkers anti-vax demographic) but hadn’t seen any sign for Biden, he always fared worse when JFK Jr was included. If this is borne out in more polls it would be a huge benefit for Harris.
I’m hoping for some “N-word” hot mic moments from Trump, Vance, or supporters which RWM will have to spin into “free speech”…
Nitpick: RFK Jr. 
This perfectly summarized my original concerns, since relieved, when I heard the announcement, although I also expected RFK Jr. to try to reclaim a spot as a “Democrat” all of a sudden 
.
The fact that nearly everyone was willing to pull together was very heartening, although like many in the thread, I think I agree that Biden did the best almost anyone could have done in the current climate in the US. As for his age and condition, being President is immensely aging and stressful for the youngest, you could actually watch Obama aging in office at an accelerated rate, and I too was concerned with Biden’s age and health.
As for actual enthusiasm, yes, I think W_E has it best:
Hopefully we’ll get a better turnout from having someone more relatable in age and attitudes, than by not “alarming” people voting for the lesser of evils or not being alarmed by some wedge factor that would likely have caused their vote to be lost anyway.
ETA - while there’s always reluctance to count on younger voters to show up, I do also think it’s time for Harris to double down on youth, and show a bit more of the disciplined attack on Trump that Biden was more reluctant to do. Show the difference in energy and willing to take it to the mat as it were.
The thing is that she’s now running to be President, not the candidate for President. Advertising her prosecutor background may have been problematic in a nomination race, but it might not be in this race. When competing with (as I recall) fifty-eight thousand other candidates for the 2020 nomination, of course she was doomed to be outflanked on the left by a few other candidates, and criticized by the left wing of the party membership. To her non-credit she didn’t seem prepared for that. She didn’t run a great race, though a lot of the problem was, apparently, incompetent advisors. Now the whole party is on her side, making that problem less likely to recur.
But as the nominee, there are no other nomination hopefuls to attack her, and the rank and file isn’t deciding between her and The Left Wing Candidate I Like More. They’re deciding between her and a criminal fascist. Her credentials as someone who put criminals in jail could help win voters in the middle a lot more than it loses voters on the left.
Watching her command the room at her rally in Milwaukee is a thing of beauty. I’m hoping that “Not Going Back!” becomes some sort of slogan for her campaign (kinda like President Obama commandeered “Yes We Can”).
Yeah, wow, that’s a thing of beauty!
13 posts were split to a new topic: CBS Poll from Sunday on Kamela Harris
I feel and felt much the same way. I heard myself arguing against abandoning the advantages of incumbency, but once it happened it felt like someone suddenly opened up the curtains and windows and now there’s light and fresh air in the room. Hope springs eternal.
Yes, it’s a dry statistic that isn’t actually meaningful, like who has the biggest feet in the NBA.
But that’s not about the fact of delivering the most votes, that’s taking credit for helping achieve success.
Yes, my dad was predicting a lot of infighting that would play right to the Reps.
I suspect the party players considering and pushing for Biden to step down were working out strategy of how to do it with the best outcome.
And I am excited, too, both with not having to vote for a man only 2 years younger than my own dad, and having a Female candidate without Hillary’s baggage. There may be some old men turned off by talk about her being a woman, but they should be easily replaced by the young folks motivated to participate because of her being a woman, and being younger and more hip, and being more energetic and relatable.
Love it!
I’ll vote for and celebrate the low cunning of a potato before I vote for the grifting vulgarian, but what’s pleased me most about the last two days is how much I actually like Kamala. Her clear competence, humor, and style are such refreshing contrasts to the whining, mean-spirited, probably bad-smelling schlubs on the GOP ticket.
Everyone in my cohort (nerdy women over 40) is over the moon.
Trying to out-Trump Trump would be a very bad idea, and I’m sure she has sense enough not to do this. Hubris attracts his voters, but it’s likely to put off hers; and the people attracted to it aren’t going to switch to Harris. Confidence, yes: justified confidence attracts everybody: but hubris is something else altogether.
Biden didn’t drop out until he was convinced Harris had a chance. I wonder if Biden’s advisors had any idea about the level of enthusiasm Harris would generate, because I think if they did he would have dropped out sooner. And if they didn’t know, what does it say about what everybody else thinks they know?
At this point, the timing seems perfect. Ramp up the enthusiasm right when people were at the extreme of losing hope.