Paradoxically this makes my estimation of the man go up a notch (so, from -1000 to -999.9), I learned about Kharg Island in the last few weeks, so he knew something I didn’t.
1980s Trump was a bad man, but he wasn’t nearly as stupid and ignorant as 2020s Trump. Unfortunately, current Trump is still going on ideas and decisions formulated in the 1980s and unexamined since.
True, but knowing about Kharg Island its a bit above and beyond normal cultural intelligence, I didn’t think Trump had it in him, even when he was compos mentis
Further evidence Iran is not just taking random shots.
BBC - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said a number of people had been injured in an Iranian strike on a key aluminium plant in Abu Dhabi, with significant damage reported by operator Emirates Global Aluminium.
Meanwhile, state-controlled Aluminium Bahrain said two employees were wounded by an Iranian attack on one of the world’s largest aluminium smelting facilities.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had targeted the sites with drones and missiles on Saturday in response to US and Israeli attacks on its own industrial plants
Iran also hit a pesticide plant in southern Israel, releasing hazardous materials into the atmosphere.
Same here. Though mainly it just made me very sure he’s going to invade Kharg Island. Prior to reading that I was of the opinion he probably wouldn’t. He’s always had a good handle on what the GOP base wants to see, and lots of dead American troops in an unsuccessful* invasion is definitely not that. But this makes me think he’s going to do this whatever.
‘*’ - the US could occupy Kharg Island successfully (though even that is a little doubtful given the small number of troops, and logistical support, currently available in the region) but they are not going to be able to capture the oil infrastructure intact
Even then, they can capture it, but can they hold it? Or are they going to eat scores of drones and short range missiles as whatever interceptor supply they have runs low?
The oil infrastructure is useless to the U.S., but it’s very useful to Iran, so Iran won’t want to destroy it. That’s the whole point: to take something Iran wants and hold it as a bargaining chip.
If Iran still insists on destroying Kharg Island, let them. Hell, help them - blow the place up from the inside and leave. It’s their loss, not America’s. The only problem is the risk to the Marines’ lives.
We may be at the point where the war is so costly with no chance of a real victory that the GOP is desperate to do something to salvage the situation. They might be desperate enough to make things worse in an effort to do something allowing them to claim victory.
That argument assumes that they think they’ll ever get it back. And that they have a reason to think the US can be meaningfully bargained with.
That being the point. They would absolutely not blow it up under normal circumstances. In the final stages of a brutal battle where US forces are about to complete their occupation of the island they totally would.
It’s not useful to them if the US is occupying it, its only a weapon to be used against them.
It’s useful to them if they get it back, intact. Destroying it is the worse case scenario for them.
But they know that it is extremely unlikely that would ever happen. As you yourself said:
If we take it, it’s permanently lost to them. If they can make us lose some soldiers in the process, that’s a victory for them. That’s how asymmetrical warfare works; you win by making the enemy bleed until they give up and leave, not by fighting hopeless battles.
Moderating:
All of the above are speculative posts and belong in the thread for speculation about consequences. Please try to keep track of which thread you’re in when posting. Hint: If your post begins with the words, “If,” or “When,” then it’s not about current events – which is the purpose of this thread – and belongs elsewhere. Thanks.
nevermind - removed to comply with mod note.
Thank you.
The amount of U.S. troops in the Middle East is now over 50,000
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/us/politics/us-marines-middle-east-iran-war.html
An Iranian missile hit the Haifa Oil Refinery again. What was that that someone said about not hitting energy facilities? Or does that not apply to Israel?
That it’s a war crime? Yeah basically everyone knows Iran commits war crimes.
No, that we’re avoiding hitting Iranian energy facilities, for some reason. I guess we can stop doing that now.
Giving the choice between being damned if I do or damned if I don’t, I’d rather be damned for doing something.