I thought that bombing schools in session was a war crime. In doing so without consequences, the US has demonstrated that the label “war crime” is not a deterrent.
Yes but that was not intentional.
In this case Trump is openly announcing that he plans to break the Geneva Conventions.
Summary
Republicans in the USA have been enabling him to get away with crimes for years. Trump is used to it, and laws, treaties and conventions don’t mean anything to him. He expects to get away with whatever he chooses to do, and so far he’s right.
Wrong thread.
Moderating
There seems to be a fundamental contradiction there.
I do not expect troop movements to be public knowledge, but how many soldiers has Israel mobilized in preparation for an invasion of Iran?
The U.S. Army’s Staff Reference Guide says you need a 3:1 force ratio for an attack, and 18:1 in the lead element.
The Russians had that against Ukraine and it was not enough. You need motivation too, and the defenders to be demoralized.
Are US and Israeli soldiers sufficiently motivated? Are Iranian soldiers demoralized enough?
That’s the the fulcrum of the whole war, if Iran stands firm they will probably “win” the war, (for certain definitions of “win” since the devastation they have suffered and they are likely to suffer is terrible), but will they? can they?.
At the start of the war there were many doubts about that, now it’s clear that they will not fold easily, but still this is not the Iran of the 80’s so…
From Josh Marshall (gift link):
The U.S. is talking variously about degrading Iranian missile, drone and nuclear capacities. But if you look closely at words and especially actions the real aim appears to be to force Iran to let the U.S. out of the war with something it can call a win. “Say we won and stop fucking with the Strait and we’re all set,” the administration is basically saying. The problem is that if this scenario is basically accurate the U.S. is escalating with nothing it can call a “win” that isn’t 100% at the discretion of Iran, which now seems even more under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps than before the war, to offer. So what if the U.S. does a limited ground operation and Iran says, Nope, we’re still not giving you your win. What then? Full-scale invasion?
Of course, you need to have thought all of this through in advance. And this is very much the result of getting into this conflict with no clear idea of what we were trying to accomplish. Or perhaps we went into this with the really foolish or extremely high-risk assumption that the enemy state would shatter quickly.
You evaluate a war not by how much each side blows up but by who emerges stronger, either in relative or absolute terms, when the war ends. Who achieved what? If Iran emerges from this conflict with some kind of effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, that will be a tremendous strategic victory. In fact, even surviving the full force of U.S. aerial bombardment for a month is a big deterrent accomplishment. Right now Iran holds the initiative in the whole conflict. And the president is escalating but without any goal or off-ramp that isn’t under Iran’s control to give or deny.
This is what happens when idiots start a war with no mission and no plan.
Iran holds all the initiative. Iran is winning this war.
Why not want for the conflict to end? And for all sides be better off and at peace
You are, of course, looking at it from the lens located where you are. And, again of course, Americans are (or should be) looking at it from a lens where they are located.
You may think Trump is your ally but why? America’s long-standing allies, those in alliance with the US going back long before World War II, now say we are not a reliable partner.
Speaking of World War II, do you recall such things as Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers? To date, I have heard of no such critter in connection with this current conflict. There are conflicting announcements from Trump and his cabinet made randomly and without regard to the facts on the ground in your neck of the woods. The US is not in this with you, nor even alongside you. It’s in this for God knows what and the exit strategy is, as of yet, a mystery.
Earlier on, I said if this war between the US and Iran goes on longer than four weeks, then Trump has, by definition, lost the war because that’s how long he said it would last. How many “forever wars” do you expect to create any kind of lasting peace? My money is on zero. And Trump started this by literally bombing people who were in negotiations.
Of course we do, but we want it to ACTUALLY end - with Israel and Iran sitting down and shaking hands and declaring that the two countries are no longer enemies, and with both sides believing the other is telling the truth. Anything less than that isn’t an end, it’s a deferral. I don’t want to do this again and again twice a year for the rest of my life, which could be very short if Iran gets nukes. Better to finish it now - either achieve a real peace, or hurt Iran hard enough that it won’t be able to attack us again for a long time, or will be too afraid to try. No more half measures.
America has a history of declaring the war over and leaving its allies to the wolves. We’re not going to be South Vietnam, thank you very much.
And yes, I don’t trust the U.S. right now, and I’m sure the Israeli government doesn’t, either. Your country is being run by a bunch of erratic, dangerous incompetents. But you play the cards you’re dealt, you know? This isn’t some war half way around the world from us, where we can just walk away with a shrug and a minor loss of prestige. We’re not you - we live here. It’s as much a total war for Israel as it is for Iran, and in total war, you use the assets at your disposal.
The current US government is not an asset for Israel in this conflict.
Maybe, but they’re involved, and there’s nothing we can do about that. Whether the U.S. is part of the problem or part of the solution, we’re still going to fight our war.
What if this war strengthens Iran? Will it have been worth it?
My point is that the war is going badly for Israel and the US, and this was eminently foreseeable, and whatever sources told you that this war was necessary and wise at this point were lying to you.
Whether starting the war was necessary or wise is hardly relevant at this point. There is no
stopping it - only postponing it for another few months while Iran rebuilds. Was this the war I’d choose? Probably not. But I still don’t see any choice besides winning it.
You people keep on talking about how bombing people just radicalizes them. Well, congratulations: I’m radicalized, motherfuckers. You think the Iranians are fanatics? You ain’t seen shit.
I’m very tired right now, and a cluster bomb just fell near my wife’s office. Maybe I shouldn’t be here.
I’m very sorry for what you’re going through. You and your family and neighbors don’t deserve it and neither do the people of Iran. I’ve never experienced being bombed and I’m sure I don’t know how it can feel.
This whole situation is terrible and it has been for years and it seems like your government and my government are making it worse and worse. War begets violence and war. Making peace can be very hard but surely it’s better than this endless oppression and grievance and killing. I don’t see how logically anything gets better by continuing this war, especially with such stupid and evil people in charge.
A third generation Hatfield wondering why people aren’t excited to join the fight against the McCoys…
I accidentally replied to a very old post.
Israel is “winning” the war in terms of destroying Iran’s air and sea defenses and decimating its military-industrial complex. However,
Current assessments are that Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz, and that they are not pliant to U.S. demands. It is not the case that
Whether that could happen in a month would call for speculation, but Israel does not have the military capability to invade and occupy Iran, so Israel had better be prepared to lose this war, by your definition.
Among the parallels to America’s involvement in Vietnam:
Our civillian leadership (and Israel’s for that matter) sold an extremely optimistic pitch that this was not a heavy commitment and is now apparently in a bind because the reality that the status quo is counterproductive for both countries and achieving the war’s objectives would require a serious commitment that sane leaders would have sought public support for ahead of time.
Unless something has changed very recently Israel hasn’t offered sending their own ground forces and the US has at some points hinted at ground troops in the service of winning the war over trade and oil, not for actual regime change.
Continuing the status quo in the hopes that either the revolutionary guard just collapses or the US accidentally gets pulled in enough that we do full on depose them is a stupid strategy. Pursuing q cease fire will greatly advatagevIran compared to the previous dynamic but its much better than the other options. There’s no point throwing lives away over a sunk-cost fallacy.