I’m not trying to say it never happened but do we know more about the nature of these attacks? Were they missiles, drones or fast boats? Or were they mines? It would be a shame if three vessels were responsible for restarting a war because they didn’t listen to Iran’s navigational guidance and blundered into mines that Trump repeatedly declared weren’t there anymore.
Ah, yes. There was a Memorandum Of Understanding that was not binding. Those were the days.
“Your side is prolonging the war my side started!”
Missiles and or drones, not mines.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5986145-senate-iran-war-resolution/
Senate Republicans on Thursday defeated a motion to advance a war powers resolution that would direct President Trump to withdraw U.S. troops from hostilities against Iran, even though a growing number of GOP lawmakers are voicing concerns about mounting casualties and how long the war has dragged on.
The chamber voted 47 to 49 on a motion to discharge the war powers resolution out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee… Centrist Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) was the only Democrat to vote against the motion to advance the resolution.
Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who have previously voted for resolutions to curtail Trump’s authority as commander in chief, missed the vote.
Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.) were also absent.
Change “missed” and “absent” to “dodged” the vote for accuracy purposes. Curiously, all Republicants.
Trump is said to be about to order an unprecedented level of bombing:
And Brent is about to reach USD 102.
I have to say this is one of the shortest and more victorious wars I’ve ever seen…
From today’s Paul Krugman Substack post (you may need a free subscription to read it):
Good information. I had been wondering why gas keeps going up in price lately, even though the price of oil hasn’t been as bad as what we expected it to be.
And it’s all because Trump is a racist moron. He couldn’t STAND the fact that Obama made a good treaty.
So ‘Mr. Art of the Deal’ screws it all up and can’t even get an MOU. Or can’t hold to it. So Iran is just saying ‘F’ you.
While all true, that’s water under the bridge at this point. We need to fix the mess he made, and we’re not going to do that with him still in charge. Step #1 in fixing something is to stop breaking it in the first place. Until then, there’s not much you can do.
At this point, IMHO the only way to go back to the statu quo ante vis-a-vis the Strait of Hormuz would be to offer Iran complete lifting of all sanctions and some economic incentives in exchange for them stopping charging tolls for passage, probably an explicit agreement that future attacks will result in Iran blocking the Strait and charging tolls too.
Otherwise Iran has no motive to stop charging tolls.
I guess the above depends on how much Iran can be hurt by an U.S. blockade, a stick instead of carrots strategy may work too.
A ceasefire proposal from the US was conveyed to Iran via the PM of Iraq on July 23rd:
Iran wasn’t interested in “a temporary deal that left the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved”
What is going to have to happen is a peace deal brokered by a third party, with guarantees from both sides, as neither the US nor Iran can be trusted on their own.
It will take months of negotiation (if Trump exits the picture: otherwise, years) before the US will accept this, most of them devoted to the spin that makes Americans feel they were in charge the whole time.
US military intentionally allowing some Iranian missiles and drones through to save interceptors.
Russian roulette except with missiles? The mind boggles.
Of course not. They must be making decisions based on trajectory and not bothering to destroy ones that are landing somewhere considered harmless.
In Israel, it’s been standard procedure for the entire war to only intercept missiles incoming on a dangerous trajectory, and to allow other missiles to fall and explode in open unpopulated areas.
It is public information, announced after every attack, when the all-clear message is sent and people come out of their bomb shelters.
“My men will win or they will die. Pompeii’s men have other options.”
Iran is hurt by the blockade, but they still have a huge edge in that they and the us both know that Iran is in an existential war and the US’s negative outcomes if they capitulate are either global economic damage from Iranian control of the strait or the embarrassment of having to give reparations.
Iran has every reason to think that without their ability to close the strait as well as hit oil infrastructure in the gulf states the US would already have leveled Tehran ot done something else drastic (take out all of their water infrastructure etc). They also have agreed to a cease fire in 2025 that led to the US and Israel attempting a decapitation strike during supposed longercterm peaxe negotiations. They have every reason to think the best way to save their regume is to close the strait and ride out an indefinite economic depression in the hopes that the US blinks first rather than blink first themselves in the hopes that the US doesn’t just regroup and start bombing again.
Oh I agree completely with all that, however I think it must be at least noted that there is a possibility that a total blockade by the U.S. could cause a collapse of Iran’s economy.
Yes this is true. There’sa possibility of the US is willing to keep the blockade up for years it could even bring the regime down (obviously at extreme humanitarian cost).
The USA has been imposing a blockade on Cuba for ages now, and Cuba is an island. Cuba, despite the humanitarian cost, has not collapsed yet. At least the government hasn’t. Iran has borders with some of the most expert smuggling countries in the world. And Iran can retaliate where Cuba can’t: where it hurts the world’s and the US’ economy.