From The Economist:
Edited Excerpt:
…Despite this stunning initial success at decapitating the regime, there is every chance that Mr Trump will not get what he wants. In the short run, Iran may wreak devastation in the region, by continuing to use its many remaining missiles to strike cities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, whose prosperity depends on being safe. The regime could also hit a base or a ship, killing a large number of uniformed Americans—news of the death of three American troops on Sunday hinted at the danger. By damaging oil fields or blocking tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz it could drive oil prices towards $100 or above.
In the longer run, the strikes could also fail in a more fundamental way. The Iranian regime has long been preparing for the succession of Khamenei, an elderly and ailing man. For the time being, power rests with a triumvirate. In time, he may be replaced by someone who is likely to have been implicated in the killing of many thousands of Iranians in anti-government protests in January. With fresh blood on his hands, the new ruler could be just as hard-line and cruel as his predecessor. He may continue to stockpile ballistic missiles, safe in the knowledge that it would be hard to justify another war over that alone. Rather than renounce nuclear enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, he may conclude that, like North Korea, Iran needs a bomb to be safe from attack. Or perhaps Iran will collapse into chaos and civil war that could spill beyond its borders. In that case, who knows where its supplies of enriched uranium might end up.
Mr Trump must surely understand all this. His supporters tend to be against going to war, especially in the Middle East. Even if the oil-price rise is modest, it could rile MAGA voters as midterm elections approach… So why did he think the risk is worth taking?
One reason could be to outshine that long list of presidents by being the one to settle scores with Iran. For months allies urging caution, such as Gulf rulers, have vied for Mr Trump’s ear with leaders eager for strikes, notably in Israel. If hawks told Mr Trump that he could go down in history by settling scores with Iran, it worked…
Another reason could be the opportunity to deal with Iran while it was weak… In January’s protests the regime lost the faith of its people more profoundly than at any time since the revolution. Encouraged by Israel, which has successfully attacked Hizbullah in Lebanon and pro-Iranian forces in Syria, perhaps Mr Trump decided he would never have a better moment to act.
In this, Iran fits into a new and broad pattern in which America asserts power..
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/01/why-donald-trump-gambled-in-iran