The overall count in Washoe is slightly to the D right now, in both the Senate and Governor races.
For fun, I took the current latest numbers from the BBC and adjusted the county totals by the reporting percentage. In short, it doesn’t look good.
| nevada | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| actual | adjusted | D-R diff from adjustment | ||||||
| D | R | p | D-R | D | R | D-R | ||
| washoe | 84382 | 79409 | 0.89 | 4973 | 94811 | 89224 | 5588 | 615 |
| humboldt | 1155 | 3973 | 0.9 | -2818 | 1283 | 4414 | -3131 | -313 |
| elko | 2948 | 11257 | 0.9 | -8309 | 3276 | 12508 | -9232 | -923 |
| pershing | 408 | 1241 | 0.91 | -833 | 448 | 1364 | -915 | -82 |
| lander | 383 | 1662 | 0.97 | -1279 | 395 | 1713 | -1319 | -40 |
| eureka | 69 | 649 | 0.92 | -580 | 75 | 705 | -630 | -50 |
| white pine | 681 | 2503 | 0.95 | -1822 | 717 | 2635 | -1918 | -96 |
| churchill | 2382 | 6942 | 0.94 | -4560 | 2534 | 7385 | -4851 | -291 |
| storey | 701 | 1693 | 0.98 | -992 | 715 | 1728 | -1012 | -20 |
| lyon | 6088 | 15992 | 0.995 | -9904 | 6119 | 16072 | -9954 | -50 |
| carson city | 8994 | 11024 | 0.85 | -2030 | 10581 | 12969 | -2388 | -358 |
| douglas | 7019 | 14592 | 0.79 | -7573 | 8885 | 18471 | -9586 | -2013 |
| mineral | 646 | 1117 | 0.96 | -471 | 673 | 1164 | -491 | -20 |
| nye | 5728 | 13374 | 0.995 | -7646 | 5757 | 13441 | -7684 | -38 |
| esmerelda | 65 | 343 | 0.995 | -278 | 65 | 345 | -279 | -1 |
| lincoln | 306 | 1636 | 0.97 | -1330 | 315 | 1687 | -1371 | -41 |
| clark | 319591 | 283127 | 0.91 | 36464 | 351199 | 311129 | 40070 | 3606 |
| total | 441546 | 450534 | -8988 | 487848 | 496953 | -9105 |
Clark county indeed dominates the totals, but Cortez just doesn’t have a very dominating lead. Compare to, say, Douglas county, which stands to give a couple thousand votes to Laxalt, despite having a much smaller population. Even tiny counties are contributing significantly when they are ~75% R. Elko stands to change the total more than Washoe.
Maybe the remaining uncounted areas within the large counties are more urban. That’s entirely possible, but at least at the county level it’s not looking that promising.
I don’t know that they’re more urban necessarily, but the most recently counted votes in both counties have been substantially better for Catherine Cortez Masto. She got 61% of the last batches from Clark and Washoe counties.
Hopefully they’re currently counting more mail-in ballots that could favor Cortez Masto.
While I suspect that the net Congress effect will be overall as expected (Republicans take the House and the Senate is essentially a tie) what I am finding interesting is the State races. There are a few states where Republicans won big and most of these candidates are the ones that have bucked Trumpism. I am thinking of Ohio and Florida, for example. This may be what the Republicans need to get rid of Trump. As long as he had their base they needed to kowtow to him but if they see that candidates do better when they distance themselves from him, they just may do so. I have no illusions that any of the candidates actually support him; they just want the votes.
Also, I am somewhat looking forward to McCarthy having to keep his caucus in line if the Republicans take the House. The last few Republican Speakers all burned out fairly quickly. Pelosi is an anomaly in that she appears to be extraordinarily good at the job. I honestly don’t know how she does it. I can’t see McCarthy being able to count votes like she can. I would love to see him with a one or two vote lead and have to suck up to each and every crazy Republican.
Indeed. If anything, this election cycle showed Republicans can win without TFG, and being too closely tied to him can be a liability. Perhaps the fever is finally breaking.
The local Tucson paper called Kelly the Senate winner. None of the bigs yet.
wow! that is daring.
in nevada cortez is holding at 60+% of the votes coming in there were 2 vote dumps overnight. she is trailing by 2ishk now.
Not a newspaper/network but Cook Political Report has called AZ for Kelly
Just wanna thank those of you who are paying such close attention. Every time I try to search the results threads myself, I get more confused. Fingers crossed.
I took a closer look at the Maricopa County numbers reported last night. Estimated remaining ballots are 340k-350k, of which 17k are the uncounted in-person votes delayed by the problems with the ballot printing machines; 300k are verified early ballots waiting to be tabulated; 30k early ballots still to be signature verified; and 3k provisional yet to be researched.
Kelly won the early ballots returned prior to election day by 60/40. Masters won the in-person vote 69/31.
Assume the 17k in-person votes break 69/31 for Masters, He picks up about 6500 votes.
290k of the 330k remaining early ballots were election day dropoffs, so 40k truly early votes. Assume that breaks 60/40 and Kelly picks up 6k, so these votes are a wash.
That leaves the 290k election day dropoffs. This is the wild card. They went R in 2020 and D in 2018. If they break the same as the in-person votes then Masters picks up 110k and erases Kelly’s lead.
Probably they will break somewhere in between: to even have a ballot to drop off you had to request an early ballot, which presumably the most hard-core Trumpers would avoid. On the other hand, Trumpers have been pushing for people to drop off on election day and not trust the mail or the remote drop boxes (the ones they have been “guarding”).
Kelly is probably OK, but very very worried that we are in for Governor Lake…
Who are the prominent MAGAbots who have won? There’s JD Vance in Ohio, but other than that I’m coming up empty. It seems to me that the Republican Party has had their fill of DJT, but their base is saying “I just can’t quit ya, Donald”.
Getting a little more optimistic about the NV Senate seat, sure would be nice if GA didn’t matter. Of course 51 seats would be nice but if Republicans take the House all the Senate is going to do for the next two years is acquitting Biden in his impeachment trials. My over/under for Biden’s impeachments is 2.
I kinda doubt it. Modern Republicans have tended to offer the same prescription for every situation. “The economy is bad? Tax cuts!” “The economy is good? Tax cuts!”
I suspect the rationale going forward will be:
“Trump-backed candidates won? Trump is the reason!”
“Trump-backed candidates lost? They needed more Trump!”
“Trump-backed candidates lost? Rigged! Cheating!”
Yeah, and Lake has been laying so much groundwork for a “stolen election” narrative that if she narrowly loses it will be a gigantic shit-storm. Not that it’s a reason to hope that doesn’t happen (her losing narrowly, I mean) but just a sign of how dangerous she (and her ilk) are to democracy.
Well, DeSantis, in a way. Trump isn’t exactly wrong in claiming that he “saved” DeSantis’ political career.
Matt Gaetz won, and Boebert seems to have held on. Eric Schmitt in MO is a Trumpista, but they all are here and MO is so far gone it doesn’t matter. I think Trump really preferred the other Eric (Grietens) in the primary but didn’t have the balls to say it and be a loser. So now he will take credit for Schmitt.
Majorie Taylor Greene easily won as well.
As did that unrepentant sow Huckabee Sanders, getting 61.3% of the vote.
Maybe not an election-denier per se, but MAGA enough.
nevada is saying next clump at 9am pacific and 5pm eastern in clark county. also a presser around 2pm pacific.
So, two dumps? I’m confused by the time frames.
Yep, all of the “the party is moving past Trump” narrative that we’re hearing now is coming from the Republican wine-and-cheese crowd of “senior political strategists” and party bigwigs who never wanted him in the first place and would really, really like for this to be the case. I’ll believe it more when I hear the same message coming from the county precinct chairs and local volunteer coordinators.