US Midterm Election watch along thread

That’s right. In the Portland case it is for electing three members from a district.

Technically ranked-choice voting (RCV) refers to any voting system where the voter gives a priority ranking to candidates. As used in the US it mostly refers to instant-runoff voting (IRV), which is a method for choosing one candidate by eliminating the weakest candidates and reallocating their votes according to their next choice.

Single transferable vote (STV) is a generalisation of IRV to multi-winner elections. The additional rule is that, as well as reallocating the votes of losing candidates, you also reallocate votes from winning candidates who have won by “too much”.

I believe the proper name is a stealth of ninjas. :ninja:

I think Texas Democrats should focus on the cities.

“Democrats shouldn’t abandon Rural Texans! They deserve to be heard too!”.
Forgive me if I’m a bit skeptical of rural Texans’ ability to make good voting decisions after seeing that Uvalde County overwhelmingly voted for Abbott.

Nm, don’t want to hijack a breaking news thread

Besides Maricopa and Pima Counties, Cochise and Pinal Counties still are reporting a substantial number of ballots (16k-17k between them). I am looking at the live feed from Pinal and they are prepping the tabulators to run a sizeable batch. Both these counties are pretty red.

ETA: Navajo County (very blue) also has 4k left and are actively tabulating.

Add Arlington County (VA) and the state of Nevada (third state to do so) to the list of RCV adopters.

Eh, I was born and raised in Ocean County. It’s not rural, but it’s one of the most conservative parts of the state.

So many seniors. Ocean County is Florida North. Pines, Sands and Seniors.

It’s not just seniors. I wouldn’t be surprised if the folks I knew in high school (who didn’t move away) became Trump supporters - and in fact I know some did due to Facebook. It’s just a pretty conservative area.

Got confused with Apache County. Navajo County is reddish.

Newsweek* is reporting Kari Lake faces certain defeat. Is this true?

*Or is online Newsweek just fake-new now? I thought I heard it wasn’t legit.

She is looking pretty good, but may end up in recount territory - her lead is about 1% now, recount threshold is 0.5%. I am worried about the AG race, current lead is 0.4%.

The Post says her advisors are telling her it’s over (gift link)

PHOENIX — Kari Lake, staring down a likely loss in the Arizona governor’s race, is being advised by GOP operatives and some of her closest aides to take a measured approach should she come up short in the vote tally and not “storm the castle,” as one person present for the discussions described the sentiments.

She doesn’t seem the ketchup sort so I’m wondering what condiments she’s throwing at the wall.

About half of the remaining votes are expected to drop at the top of the hour. This will be all that’s left in Maricopa. This is very likely to determine the outcome.

She’s more of the Get In Front Of The Cameras And Stir Up The Rubes variety.

Hobbs just added to her lead by 4,000 with Pima County results.

Maricopa county results expected in ~15 minutes. That could be all Hobbs needs.

Steve Kornacki just said that the Maricopa County votes expected at the top of the hour will be Kari Lake’s “Hail Mary Pass”. Katie Hobbs is in the lead by more than 29K.

Hobbs has increased her lead with a dump from Pima county. 4 counties came in and hobbs got the majority in all 4.

A note on recounts, since this is different from Colorado’s law: Arizona’s threshold is 0.5% of total votes, not 0.5% of the leading candidate. So with the anticipated total number of votes in Arizona, it will probably be ~13K for the governor race and 12.8K for the AG race.

As of 5:50 pm AZ time, the AG lead is 13.9K, so just outside of recount territory, but possibly within range depending on the last drops.