I can’t imagine Assad caving when he knows that the goal is a trial at the Hague.
Will Russia just make up the money? Can they?
I’m all for getting rid of Assad, but what replaces him? I don’t think the culture in the middle east can handle western style democracy and human rights. They will descend into religious and ethnic bickering and authoritarianism. Hopefully it’ll be better than what they have now, but it was my understanding that after the Iraq war, torture in Iraq got worse than it was under Saddam. Too many factions came up. Syria may not be like Japan after ww2 where once the evil government is gone the people just passively agree to a western style democracy with ingrained human rights.
Also what is to stop China from loaning Syria the money? It isn’t like Syria needs $300 billion tomorrow. China could loan them $30 billion a year for 10 year in exchange for tons of oil or other benefits to China. Hell China could mandate they hire Chinese laborers to rebuild the country using money loaned from China. That’ll create Chinese jobs, and still get them tons of discounts on Syrian oil.
We don’t live in a unipolar world anymore. China could easily just loan them the money.
…North Korea, where the same family is still in power 65 years after we bombed their country into dust?
Syria doesn’t have tons of oil.
For my part I’m opposed to giving them major money regardless of whether Assad stays or goes.