That Lancet article’s findings summary notes:
(my bolding)
That suggests “millions and millions and millions of people who look at the data and realize the threat to them is comparatively minor” isn’t the big contributor to vaccine refusal.
Are we talking about distrust of vaccines exclusively? I thought we were also talking about lack of interest. I see those as two separate issues.
Well why don’t you dig up some cites on this lack of interest you want to talk about? For instance, how many hospital staff have declined a shot over a lack of interest?
Because I was challenging the notion presented in this thread that there are only three reasons people would ‘refuse’ a vaccine, reasons which don’t include that they see little benefit in the exercise – a notion that was itself presented without citation. (Nor should it be, of course, because it was offered as opinion. Which is entirely fine. Why are you not okay with hearing people express opinions?)
Your wish to dive into the numbers sure ebbs and flows.
I have zero wish to dive into the numbers on this issue. Zero. I imagine that the surveys on this matter are (very) limited, at best.
Well, you made generic claims at the numbers. You seem to say LSLGuy’s categories made up a small fraction of people not taking the vaccine. You claim a big group is people who’ve had covid already. You said millions have made the calculation that covid isn’t dangerous enough to take a vaccine.
I’m generally accepting that the surveys at least somewhat reliably reflect that there is a significant fraction of the population that is not eager to seek the vaccine. I’m skeptical of any survey’s ability to put fine points on that interest or lack of interest, in no small part because in cases like this people don’t reliably act in the way they say will act. But it seems reasonable enough to believe that there is a pool of uninterested people that would extend well beyond those who could be accounted for by the three categories described. And if that pool is significant, then yes, in a country of 300+ million people it probably amounts to millions. I’m happy to stand by that logic.
I’m sure that there are people in that group. But saying that they “extend well beyond” people who are nervous about a new vaccine or people who were antivax already isn’t logic. It’s assuming most people think like you.
Oh, I do think I’m nowhere near in a tiny minority in not being so afraid of the virus that I think I need to stop down my normal life. I think that’s why they have to make mandates and curfews and stay at home orders – because if they didn’t, some people would shelter in place but most wouldn’t. Yes, I do assume that the majority don’t fear serious illness or death.
The majority shouldn’t fear illness or death overmuch. But that’s different than saying they are declining vaccines in large numbers because they don’t personally feel vulnerable. Insurance companies would go broke if only the people feeling personally at risk of a fire bought fire insurance.
Here’s a look at it in India.
There is no shortage of shots, unlike in many other countries.
But 60% of Indians are hesitant about taking the vaccine immediately, according to a study by citizen-survey platform LocalCircles released on Wednesday - a high percentage but lower than a similar poll of 17,000 people found a few weeks ago.
Three doctors told Reuters anonymously that they already had antibodies through natural infection and would not rush to vaccinate themselves.
They go on to talk about whether they may have reached some sort of population immunity, which I suppose presumably would also drive down demand for vaccines if it were perceived to be true.
Data shows that young people overestimate the risk COVID-19 poses to them by an enormous amount. When considering the question “What is the chance of you dying from the coronavirus if you get it?” respondents to USC’s Understanding America Study under of the age of 40 have answered about 10%. The CDC’s best estimate for that age group is 0.02%. Young people are overestimating their risk of death by 500x+.
This would imply to me that they are more motivated to get vaccinated than objective, risk-based assessment would call for - not less.
@FigNorton - take a look at this graph: Age Differences in COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Mental Health: Evidence From a National U.S. Survey Conducted in March 2020 | Oxford Academic
(source)
It’s an interesting snapshot of the effect of age on certain concerns. Take a look at the second cluster of columns. Now, the question isn’t quite the same as your ref (it’s about fear of death rather than serious illness) but the results mirror those from your ref remarkably well. Interesting, no?
@Trom - you posted as I was writing. I think you’ll find the graph interesting also.
j
Then I wonder how to reconcile that only 60% of them are very or somewhat likely to get a vaccine if available? That feels odd. They are 20-25% likely to get it, so they think, 10% likely to die from it, yet only 60% very or somewhat likely to accept a vaccine. Odd.
There were lots of vaccine refusers when smallpox was at its peak, despite many victims walking the streets with heavily scarred faces, some of them blind.
But descriptions of the 1947 New York City smallpox outbreak show people were desperate to be vaccinated despite a tiny number of victims and with living examples of those permanently harmed gone. Any vaccine refusers seem to have then been quiet.
It’s not an area where perfect rationality prevails.
I recognize that. Maybe there are lessons to be taken from the smallpox example you give. In other words, maybe we shouldn’t be so quick to paint those who are hesitant as political ideologues or conspiracy theorists.
I just don’t see where that kind of characterization is helpful. The job should be to persuade those who are hesitant, not to alienate them with some kind of intellectual superiority. The latter often backfires.
I agree.
Moderating
Going forward in this thread, please adhere to the request in the OP, which is allowed by the rules of this forum. Please stick to factual posts rather than personal opinions. This thread will be moderated per GQ standards in this regard.
Colibri
QZ Moderator
In post #2 @mhendo reports vaccine hesitancy in US healthcare workers. Turns out we have a problem in the UK as well, particularly with members of certain ethnic minorities (which seems to reflect the wider hesitancy issue in UK society).
The largest hospital trust in England has reported substantially lower covid vaccine uptake among its black African, black Caribbean and Filipino staff so far, citing ‘vaccine hesitancy’.
Other London trust directors have also reported to HSJ a disparity in the take-up of the vaccine between different ethnic groups.
Guy’s and St Thomas’ Foundation Trust’s board heard yesterday that while overall 80 per cent of its staff had been vaccinated, the rate was around a quarter among black-African and black-Caribbean staff, and lower still for Filipino staff. The trust confirmed that of Asian staff groups, Bangladeshi employees were least vaccinated so far.
(My bold. Source - not easy to block cookies)
There are an awful lot of workers from ethnic minorities in the NHS.
j