Then how do you explain the many instances of kids growing up in poverty to lower middle income households and ultimately becoming successful from their own hard work, determination, and risk taking? And I’m not just talking about super wealthy, like George Soros, Oprah Winfrey, etc., but numerous people I know including myself that were raised in blue collar, brown collar, no collar households that are now in the top 1% of earners in the US.
The workers.
How numerous can they be, if they’re now in the top 1%? I mean, sure, they’re numerous as a bare number, but as a percentage of the population I can’t see them topping, at best, the single digits.
None of that contradicts what iamthewalrus said. Many people in a reasonably open society who combine hard work, determination and risk taking end up improving their lot somewhat. The ones who combine hard work, determination and risk taking with some significant good luck (either by being naturally intelligent/talented or encountering some really good opportunities or both) can end up improving their lot by a huge amount.
I think the OP was answered in the OP. “You can be anything you want to be, until you change your mind, and want to be something else.” I do not see any harm in telling kids that, but also to advise them to be flexible.
I do not like the “do what you love, and the money will come” meme. I think that one is riskier, in that someone may flail and be unsuccessful at what they love for a very long time, expecting money to eventually show-up. I think a more appropriate adjustment here is “do what you are good at, and spend the money on your passions.”
Of course you know numerous people like that - that’s the crowd you hang around with. I know numerous people with CS or EE PhDs.
Some kids grow up to be NBA stars, but most kids would be better off doing their homework and not shooting hoops.
In the US, the top 1% comprises over 3 million people. But, by definition, the top 1% will be rare - they are the top 1%.
I was an example of the tone deaf teenager. I don’t know if I had dreams of being musical, but if I did they died from the pained expression of the teacher I san for trying out for 7h grade chorus.
On the other hand, don’t knock a kid’s dream without a second opinion. When my kid finished 3rd grade she wanted to act, and asked to go to an audition with a manager in NY. I figured there was no chance, but I was happy to take her.
She got signed right away. I’m glad I never pooh-poohed that particular dream.
;)
And how many tried, but failed?
My first-grade math indicates the failure rate hovers somewhere around 99%.
You sound like a whiz at math.
I don’t believe in luck. What many people call luck is really risk taking. What’s that old phrase, “you can’t be hit by the luck truck, if you’re not in the middle of the street.” Taking a risk to attempt your passions, volunteer for that difficult role, getting out of your comfort zone and doing something different…that’s all putting yourself in the street.
Risk taking is a rare quality, but it can be learned, it is not necessarily innate. But it requires getting out of your comfort zone. It’s uncomfortable, and that’s why so many people don’t do it. That’s why many people are okay with where they are, and why people want to only tell kids to do what they are comfortable with. And who knows you might get lucky.
I think the attempt rate is much much lower, because taking risks is scary for most people.
I explain that particular thing through the use of actual data, which shows that the US has one of the crappiest track records of upward mobility of any first-world country, although it pumps the mythology harder than any. There is nothing capitalism likes better than the idea that failure and success is always due to the moral fiber of an individual and has nothing to do with social and economic realities.
I really really hope you realized that I was riffing on your absurd claim that the 1% comprises a “numerous” part of the population.
And, alternatively, they might get hit by a real truck.
It seems odd to say this to somebody who was just taking stabs at my math skill, but risks are risks because they, statistically speaking, tend to fail. And for many people, failure leaves them worse off then before. Which isn’t to say that they don’t try - but, risk being risk and all, I suspect that more of them tumble down away from the 1% than fall up toward it.
I would rather teach that it is important to distinguish between a path and a goal. A goal may be nothing more than a picture of yourself receiving the adulation of the crowd, a path is about embracing and enjoying a process, learning a skill, etc.
it is always worthwhile to take some risks following an interest as far as it will take you, because just the process of getting to the point where you have to say, well, that’s as far as I can go, or want to go, with this, will be full of lessons which will almost certainly be applicable for future decision-making. If you take no risks and dream no dreams you’ll have only yourself to blame for a dull narrow life.
And what many other people call luck is, in fact, simply luck. Risk taking is a strategy to maximize the benefits of luck (although it can also increase the costs of bad luck, of course, which is why it’s called “risk”).
Saying you don’t believe in luck is like saying you don’t believe in weather. Of course luck exists and is profoundly influential on all aspects of our lives. You were born reasonably intelligent and mentally healthy and stayed that way to adulthood? You got lucky. You haven’t had a serious accident or disease that’s drained you of energy, ability and money? You got lucky. You haven’t had a relative or friend wipe out a huge chunk of what you worked so hard for, either by deliberate selfishness or emergency needs or just plain accident? You got lucky. And so on.
Now of course, that’s not at all the same thing as saying that individual prosperity is all luck or only luck. Individuals certainly deserve credit for hard work, determination and courage. But hard work, determination and courage require a sufficient amount of luck in order to get the most benefit out of them.
You can do anything you want, if you work hard enough for it. Is the necessary adjunct.
You should read The Black Swan someday. He gives an example of a woman whose first book was a best seller. She got a big advance for her second book, it got lots of publicity - and it sank without a trace. The first book arrived at the right time - she was lucky., The second book did not.
I live in Silicon Valley. I know lots of risk takers. The mostly lose their shirts. Most entrepreneurs with one successful startup fail with their second. Are you accusing them of not knowing about risk? They and the VCs thought they were smarter than anyone. They were wrong.
The mortgage business in 2007 included a lot of risk takers. How did that turn out?
Nope. I could practice piano ten hours a day and if I got to mediocre I’d be doing good. Not all of us have all talents.
On the other hand I didn’t get on Jeopardy because I worked hard at it. I just naturally remember that kind of trivia. No effort at all. Feynmann said he got alculus at 15 or so. I put plenty of hours in and did okay, but it was painful.
I tried telling my college students of several years ago that no matter how hard I, a petite female, tried to become a great basketball player or NFL star, it wouldn’t happen because there are certain kinds of strength and attributes I simply don’t possess. One young lady replied, “That’s very negative.”
In a similar vein, a little person (dwarf) could not join in on the aforementioned sports teams for obvious reasons.
There are things we can do and things we cannot do. I’m a realist.