Virginia election-talk me down off the ledge

We are so screwed here in Virginia. It looks like all of the statewide offices are going to go Republican which probably means both chambers will also flip. The state is incredibly gerrymandered so that the Democrats barely have a majority in each house. We only just took them back in 2020. With Republican control, we are going to be another Texas or Florida. I am sure that their first item of business will be to pass a law allowing them to overturn any election suspected of fraud ensuring Republican control for eternity.

Add this to Roe v Wade going down in flames this year and the fact that 60% of Republican believe that the last election was stolen from Trump and all I can see is Trump getting elected in 2024. This time, he will not need to run again so he will be even more vindictive and corrupt. I also wouldn’t put it past him and the Congress to get rid of term limits on the Presidency or find a way to keep him in office permanently.

Anything good that Biden does manage to accomplish will be immediately destroyed. I am just seeing no hope here. I have resorted to playing parts of the Hamilton soundtrack but even that isn’t helping. (Usually Washington’s farewell address is some comfort since it stresses how the country can move on after any one President). It just seems that the world has gone insane. I am beginning to think that maybe I am wrong and maybe Trump did actually win and that people do not care about that little part of the Constitution about “promote[ing] the general welfare”. Maybe people are really just all selfish and self-centered and evil and nobody cares about anybody else.

Well Trump is old and unhealthy so there’s that.

Also the world was already insane, the insane people just have new ways to meet and interact using the power of the internet.

Let me know if you need any other encouragement.

I lived in Virginia for 6 years before. I don’t see a reason for you to worry. Any red stuff is only a temporary setback. Virginia is the new Colorado, before long it’ll not just be light blue but deep blue.

I’ll grant you the gerrymander.
That really should be fixed by a statutory non-partisan body. Like in other democracies.
The USA has a couple of exemplary examples like the FDA, but mostly stateside you are quite comfortable with, nea prefer winner takes all.

Sorry babycakes, whole vast slabs of the world are going just fine.
This doosie is of your own making and resolution.

Yeah, but the big part of the Constitution and the American Dream is “I got mine”

The only possible positive outcome of a Youngkin victory is if it gets Democrats nationally to take their heads out of their asses and realize that while they keep bogging down their own agenda with petty internecine squabbling they’re about to get obliterated by a Republican wave election that will never recede because Republicans will change the rules to ensure they hold onto power.

First of all what’s with the pejorative?

Second of all I can think of active pro-covid groups in many English speaking nations as well as France and probably others, so that particular flavor of insanity is widespread.

55% of Virginians voting GOP may be silly, but it doesn’t mean the whole world has gone insane.

By petty squabbling, you don’t mean by any chance mean:

Joe Manchin — A man from an extremely conservative state whose views are more progressive with respect to his constituents than any other Senator I know.

Or:

Kyrsten Sinema - A woman who shows all signs of having made up her mind to leave the Democratic Party, as is her right.

It seems to me that the Democrats are about as unified as the Republicans. The Democrats’ problem is that they only control Congress by a hair.

As for Youngkin, he may be peaking a bit early.

That might be what you are hearing.
But then I have no idea what your news sources are.
There are a few dodgy ones on your airways.

F’rinstance we heard that Candace Owens was advocating only this week that the US should invade Australia to free it’s oppressed people who are “suffering under a totalitarian regime”. Having COVID vaccinations rather than 3/4 million coffins really seem to have unhinged some people.

Well, thanks but no thanks. And fuck off. When we want to get rid of the Morrison government we’ll do it at the ballot box and if he loses by a mere couple of thousand votes he and his whole sorry shower will go quietly and there’s be no attempted coup like Jan 6th to reinstate them.

She has?

Yeah, pretty much. The Democrats were in almost the exact same situation in 2009/2010, when they had 60 votes in the Senate but needed every one of them to pass health care reform. And just like now, they spent months in protracted, byzantine negotiations, progressively backing away from their more ambitious goals to satisfy a couple of moderates (in that case, mostly Joe Lieberman) until they limped across the finish line with a kludge that they couldn’t really explain well and whose full benefits wouldn’t be felt by voters for years.

Also in 2009, the Virginia state elections were the canary in the coalmine for the next year’s Republican wave when Republicans took over the Governor’s office and swept state legislative races.

Man, I’m staring to feel like I should play some Black Eyed Peas on my IPod Shuffle and pop in my DVD of Avatar.

It’s just difficult because we worked so hard to flip Virginia. Let’s not forget 2017 when the House of Delegates was split 50-49 Republican with one seat left to decide. If the Republican won, they controlled the House. If the Democrat won, they controlled the House (since the Governor and Lieutenant Governor were Democrats). The count went back and forth. Initially the Democrat won by one vote but then they found a discarded ballot that had both names marked but it looked as if the person had tried to cross out the Democrat so it was awarded to the Republican. and after the final recount they called the race… a TIE!!! So they went back to the rulebook and decided that the correct way to decide the race was -no, not a runoff-that might make sense-they had to pick a name out of a hat (technically a bowl). Literally out of a bowl. They picked the Republican and nothing got done for two years. There was no Medicaid expansion so if you made above $40K a year you got discounts from the ACA and could afford health insurance but if you made minimum wage you got no discounts because the ACA provided for expanded Medicaid which would have cost you nothing and instead if you made $20K yearly the cheapest insurance was over $600 a month with a $7500 deductible so you were screwed.

Anyway, I had hopes that Virginia was actually becoming more blue and that the crazy Trumpists were a minority but they seem to be taking over. I will admit that the whole world as in the Earth is probably not screwed, just my little world here.

BTW, if you are in Australia, apparently we can no longer ship items there without paying for express priority mail. Australia COVID: US Postal Service suspends deliveries to Australia

I can’t help – ISTM at the core you are not panicking about Virginia, are you? Except insofar as seeing it as some sort of must-win-can’t-afford-to-lose contest that will signal that all is lost.

Look, if the only thing making Virginia “flip” was that DJT Was. Right. There. accross the river whipping up “fine people on both sides”, and now in less than one year since he’s gone there is some sort of massive loss of momentum, what can I tell you? If all the democrat votes from the last time around decide that hey, no Orange Man, no problem; or are demoralized about where’s my free college, well… OTOH like flurb said, maybe the rest of the Democrats can, like, notice (though wanna bet they say “oh, Virginia, well, we knew it was barely held”…)

At least with Georgia everyone seemed to understand from the get-go that the presidential vote and the two senators were an extraordinary result, with a helpful assist by DJT’s own self-sabotage.

I don’t live in VA any more, so I could be wrong about this, but hasn’t Youngkin basically been campaigning as a normal pre-Trump-era Republican and pretty much distancing himself from the whole personality cult? Honestly, although I’d prefer McAuliffe to win, I feel like I’d be OK with a Republican win that sends a solid “actually, maybe competing to see who can do the best Trump impersonation ISN’T the way forward” message to other Republicans in other places.

ETA: Also, what’s with deciding all the statewide offices are going to be won by Republicans before the election has been held, and when polling shows them as toss-ups (with the Democratic AG and LG candidates running slightly ahead of McAuliffe, IIRC)? May as well wait to freak out until it actually happens.

Youngkin has been trying to thread the needle, painting himself as a champion of schools and the economy while never disavowing Trump personally. The McAuliffe campaign is playing up the narrative that Youngkin is indeed Trump Lite and trying to get voters to notice that Virginia’s schools and economy are in pretty good shape relative to the rest of the nation.

I won’t make a prediction. But it’s pretty disturbing that Virginia Dem apathy and possible rightward swing of independent voters is making this so close a contest.

I can’t help but wonder: do you think McAuliffe would be comfortably ahead right now if he hadn’t stopped to deliver that “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach" line?

I don’t think it helped him. Like “defund the police,” some of us understand the nuances involved but less informed voters won’t and Republicans will always take advantage.

can the GOP just enforce highly gerrymandered maps? I thought VA has a commission to handle district maps now

They do indeed, although the commission appears deadlocked which under the scheme adopted in VA means that the state Supreme Court will draw the state legislative and Congressional maps.

Bipartisan or citizens’ commissions to oversee redistricting sound like a good solution, but unsurprisingly politicians are reluctant to abandon control over their own legislative districts and go to great lengths to subvert a truly nonpartisan process. It’s also the case that most states that have adopted redistricting commissions are Democratic-leaning, which amounts to unilaterally disarming if they’re going to “play fair” while Republican legislatures aggressively gerrymander unbalanced maps.

He really stepped on his own dick, didn’t he? I doubt it will turn a single Democrat against him, but it’s certainly going to rally the GQP voters. Well done Terry. You seamless muppet.