Webb has claimed victory, but he only leads by about 7,000 votes – about .3% of the votes case – and Allen has refused to concede. Will this require a recount? If so, who do you think will win it?
VA law allows for the state to pay for a recount if the delta < 0.5%. Allen would be nuts to not avail himself of that option. So, he will, but he’ll still lose. Recounts usually favor the guy who won the first time.
There’s a lot at stake here, so I can understand why Allen doesn’t want to just roll over, but his own personal political prospects for the future are Dead. This is all about controlling the Senate, so he’s going to be obliged to force a recount.
It may just be wishful thinking, but I suspect Webb will still come out ahead in the long run.
As I understand it, by law, the closeness of the vote is what will mandate a recount. It has nuthin to do with one side or the other “conceding”.
(As a matter of fact, there is no need other than professional politeness to “concede”… Nobody likes a sore loser, so if you want another shot at running for some office in the future, you better look mature.)
However, if I understand it right, recounts typically dont change the count by more than a few hundred votes either way, so a 7,000 vote lead is fairly insurmountable.
“Mandate”. What a lovely word! Note how it rolls of the tongue, its a very “woody” word, “mandate”. Really a cool word, that, “mandate”.
I know, I know, its unseemly to gloat. Just give me a few more days, and I’ll be ok again.
Mandate. Love that word.
Here’s the relevant statute.
No, no. It’s tinny. Eewww!
Precincts Reporting: 2440 of 2443 (99.88%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,582 Total Voting: 2,367,479 Voter Turnout: 51.97 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,173,160 49.55%
G F Allen Republican 1,165,753 49.24%
G G Parker Independent 26,210 1.11%
Write Ins 2,356 0.10%
Total: 2,367,479
Gillespie has already said they’ve found several instances where numbers were transposed, giving (for example) votes to Webb that were actually cast for Allen. I think that’s one of the straws they’re clinging to. Try to beat that 7,407 margin down with nickels and dimes.
Incorrect. Virginia law does not mandate a recount. It allows for a recount under certain circumstances when requested by a candidate, paid for by the Commonwealth.
Last year, one of the Virginia races (Attorney General) ended with a 323-vote margin. The recount made little difference (actually increasing the margin to 360 votes).
I don’t see any chance that a recount is going to erase a margin this large.
Wait a freakin minute - I just refreshed the page and now it says:
Did they just find some new precincts?
CNN’s site still says
Democratic Webb
1,172,020 50%
Republican Allen
(Incumbent)
1,165,111 49%
Independent Grassroots Parker
26,102 1%
99% precincts reporting - Updated: 4:31 p.m. ET
The Associated Press is reporting the same numbers.
What DSY said:
We’ll see what the absentee ballots look like, but unless they close most of the 7,400-vote gap between Webb and Allen, then there wouldn’t be much point in Allen’s asking for a recount. The numbers don’t typically change by thousands in a Virginia recount.
Also, there still seem to be 3 precincts outstanding - two in James City County and one in Isle of Wight County - and while both jurisdictions are favorable to Allen, three precincts aren’t likely to close the gap by more than several hundred votes.
Ok. Thanks for the correction, sir. (Ma’am?)
I should have known better, but I was taking the word of some talking head on cable news that it was an automatic recount based on the closeness. I should have researched for myself. (Hangs head in shame.)
What they said. There will be a recount, but it’s hard to believe that they’ll find not just 7,500 changed votes, but a net gain of 7,500 votes for Allen when less than 2.4 million people cast ballots. Eventually, Webb will get this seat.
The talking heads are correct, however, that there are circumstances in which the cost of the recount will be borne by the petitioner.
Section 24.2-802(E):
Emphasis mine.
What the hell is going on with that site? That page shows 141 outstanding precincts. Am I reading it wrong?
They’re like coathangers in the closet - they multiply when you’re not looking!
There seem to be one or two new precincts in almost all counties. Might they be for the purposes of counting the absentee ballots? That’s my WAG.
About the only reason I can think of for Allen to decline a recount is the possibility that it will lead to increased media coverage of the FBI investigation into dirty-trick attempts to suppress the Webb vote.
Hmmm . . .
Don’t give up the fight, George! You can pull this out yet!