A continuing series. In a previous episode, New Zealand made the list of orbit-capable nations. Now, Richard Branson makes the list of orbit-capable billionaires:
It does appear to be getting easier to achieve orbit with a small rocket. Achieving a useful business case is more questionable. Development costs here were around $1B, which is quite a lot higher than what SpaceX or Rocket Lab took to make their first flight. However, it’s not entirely surprising given that they took an air launch approach (the rocket is dropped from a modified 747).
That air launch gives them some uncommon (but not unique: the Pegasus rocket was also air launched) capabilities–they have to worry much less about launch windows or weather, since they can simply fly to a suitable location. But that doesn’t quite seem like it’ll pay for the high development costs.
It helps to be only #2 behind Rocket Lab in the smallsat launcher market. Unfortunately for them, others are coming and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be the most competitive in the long run. I don’t see how the market can bear more than two smallsat providers. Maybe not more than one.