But what if CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc. start reporting on the Votecastr projections? Then a lot more people are exposed to it than just politics nerds.
Because as mentioned above, there’s some concern that they can alter voting. A bunch of countries have rules against exit polling and early result reporting.
Unfortunately, they (Votecastr/Slate) didn’t elaborate.
Iowa might be ours, even Ohio looks possible.
http://media.fyre.co/OgTpsGpdSJyrnlGVE7wj_445OmbnibusGraphic.png
So, it’s been updated again. Has NH with Clinton ahead, but a couple other sites I’m looking at (The Guardian and NY Times) have it reddish at the moment, with 1% reporting. You know, those few who voted at midnight.
This kind of looks like a failure. PA shows “72 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties match this criteria” and a while ago they removed the maps and put this note up instead: “The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.”
Still, the Florida totals show her ahead by an estimated 300k votes so far. That has probably got the HRC camp feeling elated.
ETA: looks like they fixed PA now.
Current tracking of Florida (not votes counted, but their estimate) shows Clinton +3.2 in Florida.
If this prediction holds, it’s game over for Trump. He cannot win without Florida.
The NH Senate race, which has consistently been neck and neck in the polls is +10 points in the red as well. My guess/hope is that whatever polls have reported lean heavily red.
I forget where I found this link first, but it’s kind of neat. These dudes, Cuebiq, are predicting voter turn out based on cellphone location data. They don’t talk in depth about their proprietary method of data collection.
http://www.cuebiq.com/election-day
I think this is more of a proof-of-concept but it’s an interesting look at data collection methods of the The Future.
Well, on the The Guardian and NY Times, NH has fewer than 100 votes in - can’t do much with that. Any other sites you recommend I refresh all night?
Latest Election 2024 News and Updates | Fox News Elections Center reports:
If Trump were to win MI, then I could barely draw an outlandish map where he still wins while losing FL, but it’d require essentially everything else to break his way (both PA and MI going to Trump being the most unlikely events).
comparing raw vote margins isn’t particularly useful when you’re comparing FL (20 million residents) to IA (3 million residents)
There’s like one goofy town that votes at midnight, just to say they’re the first place to vote. That’s all you’re seeing in NH so far.
No, but fortunately NH polls close relatively early and it’s a low population state so IIRC it tends to be called early.
I realize that. Just chatting.
JohnT just posted this in the Prez. Election Day thread, sounds like good news.
Indeed it does. Looking forward to more real numbers coming in soon. Polls start closing any minute. Though not for a half hour for NH.
The margin looks too big for Trump to close in Florida, as far as I can tell, going by the estimate.
Yeah, I think the most reassuring thing I’ve heard all election is some Republican senator reassuring NPR that “Marco Rubio is leading Donald Trump by 10 points in South Florida.” What a weird way to spin that. If Clinton were losing Florida he’d say that Marco Rubio was leading Clinton or Murphy. Which means that Clinton has Florida in the bag so much, fingers crossed, that in order to make Rubio’s chances look good you need to compare them to Trump. And if Florida falls, it’s all over.